Aqueduct Card

[tjfrab]

Does anyone know when the casino money is going to start having a positive impact on the weekend fields at Aqueduct? Today's Aqueduct card has to be considered rock bottom. 5 of 9 races are maidens which include 4 maiden claimers, 3 of which are cheap statebreds. Of the few non-maiden races, there are a couple of 7500 rock bottom claimers. If that's what they're going to put out on weekends, they should shut down for the winter to take a break.

Not even pumping up the purse of the Withers yesterday (which was a good idea) helped them get a decent field. Does anyone have any information regarding potential future improvements to the cards?

[Alan07]

Does it seem that there are more breakdowns/vanned off's this year than in the past?

Get the government to ban Thoro-Graph.

[richard]

It does seem that way Alan. Don't know the actual numbers.

[Cannon Shell]

NYRA has an opportunity to change the system so to speak because the amount of purse money that they are going to have will put them far ahead of every other track in the country. Yet because tracks (not just NYRA) have ceded control of their racing programs to a few large outfits what will almost assuredly happen is they will simply throw money at bad horses, have some astronomically high stakes purses, and continue business as usual.

What they should do is raise the bottom claiming price, get rid of condition claiming races past the nw2 condition, reinstitute starter handicaps, structure the open claiming races so thatthere is more incentive to raise your horse in price than the simple claim and dump which is happening now. In addition they should rein in the large stables by instituting a strict stall limit on NYRA grounds of 80 stalls regardless of what track they are located at. Make owners make a choice instead of just continously sending all the horses to the few outfits which horde them. If Pletcher can convince an owner that his horse should be racing at Delaware in a 37k MSW than in Saratoga for an 80k maiden then god bless them both. But if the horses were distributed among a greater variety of trainers you would see an increase in field size and quality in your better races simply from horses that were already training there.

Obviously in NY you have NY breds to deal with but they can be used to supplement the cards instead of dominating them if you clean up the glut of cheap races and spread the horses around. I'd rather see a stronger state breeding program and NYbred allowance races than a steady parade of conditioned 7500's. This of course simplifies the situation and there are a number of things that need to be dealt with, the backlash from the 5 or 6 trainers that would be affected but PA racing and Louisiana racing is a perfect example of how just throwing money at the same horses in the same basic structure is a waste of money.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

... just throwing money at the same horses in the same basic structure is a waste of money.

I've said this all along. Because of how slot money is dealt out, I hate it for the game. A better approach and I have no problem with it. What is being done now does nothing to help the sport. I'm glad to see you've come around.

[booner]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What they should do is raise the bottom claiming price, get rid of condition claiming races past the nw2 condition, reinstitute starter handicaps, structure the open claiming races so that there is more incentive to raise your horse in price than the simple claim and dump which is happening now.

Perhaps this is what will happen at next winter's meet. It seems to me that what they are doing now is drawing interest with the inflated purses. I don't know the exact numbers, but it looks like field size is up at least 1-2 horses per race on average. Then once they have more outfits wanting to hang around, restructure the system along the lines that you have suggested to create a better racing product.

I for one have paid more attention to the NYRA circuit this winter and I like the direction they COULD be headed.

[cloud_break]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

In addition they should rein in the large stables by instituting a strict stall limit on NYRA grounds of 80 stalls regardless of what track they are located at. Make owners make a choice instead of just continously sending all the horses to the few outfits which horde them. If Pletcher can convince an owner that his horse should be racing at Delaware in a 37k MSW than in Saratoga for an 80k maiden then god bless them both. But if the horses were distributed among a greater variety of trainers you would see an increase in field size and quality in your better races simply from horses that were already training there.

I've often thought that the industry needs this sort of regulation nationwide, not just on NYRA grounds, its just that NYRA could actually enforce it. I'd love to see a national registry of sorts, where a trainer could only list a certain number of horses to race in his name, regardless of the horse's location, with an absolute annual cap.

[Travis Stone]

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

I hope you are right though have to say I will remain skeptical until we see something other than more of the same or bandaids disguised as innovation

[welltakethat]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It all won't happen overnight, but there is no doubt about it: NYRA is in a position to change the game. They know this though and I'm sure they'll make the right moves in due time.

I'm not sure how they have earned that confidence. They were not even able to calculate the correct take out percentages over an extended period of time. And that's where they already know what the right answer is.

I think Cannon Shell makes a lot of good points about eliminating the lower rung of claiming horses, especially given they should be the premier circuit and looking to put themselves on a different level from the rest of the midatlantic competition. Upping purses for bottom rung claimers is a waste of the infusion, winter or not. That card detailed above for a Sunday when they get more traffic cause its a weekend is an abomination.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by welltakethat

I'm not sure how they have earned that confidence. They were not even able to calculate the correct take out percentages over an extended period of time. And that's where they already know what the right answer is.

I think Cannon Shell makes a lot of good points about eliminating the lower rung of claiming horses, especially given they should be the premier circuit and looking to put themselves on a different level from the rest of the midatlantic competition. Upping purses for bottom rung claimers is a waste of the infusion, winter or not. That card detailed above for a Sunday when they get more traffic cause its a weekend is an abomination.

How come the vast majority of your few posts are in threads that also involve TJFRAB?

[welltakethat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How come the vast majority of your few posts are in threads that also involve TJFRAB?

I like the change of subject to deflect the conversation, I think someone else pointed that out in an earlier post I made about nyra versus keeneland where you were wripping me for defending keeneland over nyra.

I guess we both are just thoroughly and consistently disappointed in the quality of the product that nyra puts out beyond their saratoga meet. Seems like from the above posts we are not the only ones wishing the slot dollars would have went to a better product instead of more of the same.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by welltakethat

I like the change of subject to deflect the conversation, I think someone else pointed that out in an earlier post I made about nyra versus keeneland where you were wripping me for defending keeneland over nyra.

I guess we both are just thoroughly and consistently disappointed in the quality of the product that nyra puts out beyond their saratoga meet. Seems like from the above posts we are not the only ones wishing the slot dollars would have went to a better product instead of more of the same.

The fact that you're the same person under two ID's posting from the same IP belies that answer.

[Calzone Lord]

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

Nobody is saying you can't have lower claiming prices, but they should be more in line with purses. If the current set up is allowing guys like Cole to thrive, that alone tells me there is something desperately wrong with the way the game is played.

People don't have to take time with horses and actually practice horsemanship, which is in no way good for the animals. I have no doubt many more horses are sent out that shouldn't be because of slots purses. It also, in my mind, encourages cheating.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There would be no made up value. If a horse is worth less than 15k then he needs to run elsewhere. If you want better racing you have to start somewhere.

If they got rid of all the horses in New York who are truly worth less than 15K true value to their owners ... you'd have a lot of horses going out.

And a lot more horses who are just a single condition or two away from joining them.

I remember the first year at Presque Isle when the wrote those stupid N1X alw races with 72K purses. A horse of Loren Cox's shipped up off of an open 5K claiming win at Mountaineer and won one of them with ease without even really improving his figure.

Cheap open claiming is good bread and butter horse racing. I'm not so sure Rapid Redux would even be worth 15K in NY.