The true graveyard of Favorites

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Keeneland synthetic.

Since going Poly, favorites are just 9-for-66 in stakes races and 3-for-38 in stakes routes.

You have to be out of your mind to take a short price on something unless it's proven to produce its best form over this track. The record of So. Cal synthetic specialists who ship in and get bet is pretty dreadful.

The type of favorite you might not want to try as hard to beat is the debuting favorite in one of those 4.5f baby races. They have won 11 of 19 since 2008 .. for a 58% win rate.

Also 38 for 85 (45% wins) in 4.5f races this past decade when it was a dirt track.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Keeneland synthetic.

Since going Poly, favorites are just 9-for-66 in stakes races and 3-for-38 in stakes routes.

You have to be out of your mind to take a short price on something unless it's proven to produce its best form over this track. The record of So. Cal synthetic specialists who ship in and get bet is pretty dreadful.

The type of favorite you might not want to try as hard to beat is the debuting favorite in one of those 4.5f baby races. They have won 11 of 19 since 2008 .. for a 58% win rate.

Also 38 for 85 (45% wins) in 4.5f races this past decade when it was a dirt track.

Wasn't WW like 6 for 8 last meet in those 4.5f races? It was something ridiculous. They all won by 6 lengths also

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

Wasn't WW like 6 for 8 last meet in those 4.5f races? It was something ridiculous. They all won by 6 lengths also

Guys like him, Pletcher, Asmussen, and at one time Ronny Warner and even further back (out of the sample above) Pat Byrne .. they all have been pretty tough with babies in those 4.5f races.

[dalakhani]

It seems like Rusty Arnold is always bringing in shots. I give his horses a second and third look in whatever spot they are in.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It seems like Rusty Arnold is always bringing in shots. I give his horses a second and third look in whatever spot they are in.

Rusty Arnold started the fall meet red-hot. I think he had 4 or five winners opening weekend including a MSW on the 2nd day where he went 1-2.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ward was 3 for 11 in those races last year. He's 7-for-23 in them over the last 3 years.

Those 4.5 furlong races are the only kind of races Asmussen does well at on synthetic.

He's 10-for-40 with a $2.52 ROI with 4.5f horses on KEE synthetic.

In races further than 4.5f at KEE SYN - he's 8-for-101 with a pathetic $0.82 ROI.


At Woodbine poly, Asmussen is 21-for-75 with a profitable ROI in baby sprints of 4.5f and 5f.

Beyond 5f at Woodbine Poly he is just 57-for-411 with a $1.16 ROI. Losing close to triple the takeout from a big sample size.

[RockHardTen1985]

Todd always seems to pop them.

[RockHardTen1985]

Release the KRAKEN

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

At Woodbine poly, Asmussen is 21-for-75 with a profitable ROI in baby sprints of 4.5f and 5f.

Beyond 5f at Woodbine Poly he is just 57-for-411 with a $1.16 ROI. Losing close to triple the takeout from a big sample size.

2 for 3 today (in non baby 5F sprints). Looks like someone had a talk with Contreras. Factor in the, at least, 10 blown rides by Contreras last year and Asmussen's poly stats wouldn't be as bad.

I suspect Asmussen is going to have a huge (i.e. 'typical') meet and make your stats irrelevant.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

2 for 3 today (in non baby 5F sprints). Looks like someone had a talk with Contreras. Factor in the, at least, 10 blown rides by Contreras last year and Asmussen's poly stats wouldn't be as bad.

I suspect Asmussen is going to have a huge (i.e. 'typical') meet and make your stats irrelevant.

He won the baby race at KEE today (no surprise), 2nd at 4-1 in a MCL, and 6th at 8-1 in an ALW. I still think it's profitable to fade his (non 4.5F) horses at Keeneland on the poly. That being said... it's not the abysmal numbers he had a few years ago on it when every runner was bombing at 4/5.