Mine that Bird

kgar311 · #1 08-11-2009, 08:54 AM

Worked a bullet yesterday morning at Saratoga under Jamie Theriot. Seemed well within himself, they said hes gained some weight and to me looks like hes taking to Saratoga nicely. As of right now, I know its early, hes my pick for the Travers. The only thing going against him is Mike Smith but it looks like the connections had a little talk with him about his premature moves. I think the mile and a quarter will benefit him, he will be able to sit back longer and not have to worry about being close to the pace. Most people fail to realize it takes alot for a horse to get the mile and a quarter. Hopefully he will be a decent price.

randallscott35 · #2 08-11-2009, 09:10 AM

I think he's going to win the Travers if Rachel doesn't go.

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 08-11-2009, 09:35 AM

I'll pass on taking a short price in the Travers with a horse who is a combined 0-for-3 at Sunland and Mountaineer this year.

The horse himself has a history of pre-mature moves.

I thought his Preakness performance was overrated - as he got the dreamiest pace setup of a lifetime - and still managed to only finish 3 lengths in front of Flying Private.. and a half length in front of Musket Man. Both fellow closers a little less aided by the pace. Even Luv Gov and Terrain weren't beaten all that far.

Unless it's a sloppy track like the Derby .. where he exploded to that 105 Beyer .. I'll play against him.

randallscott35 · #4 08-11-2009, 09:36 AM

I don't think he'll be as short of a price as you think...But I'm talking less about value on him than thinking he is a likely winner of the race in my eyes.

Antitrust32 · #5 08-11-2009, 09:54 AM

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

I told him good luck in the travers and his response is "thanks we need it"

2 Dollar Bill · #6 08-12-2009, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

Maybe Im wrong but reading Picking winners 101... It says "" At Saratoga, allways go with the ""Hat"" angle.... Even if your picking winners in the clubhouse !!!!!

Ronnie · #7 08-11-2009, 09:55 AM

I would guess he'll be 10-1 in the Travers.

The Indomitable DrugS · #8 08-11-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie

I would guess he'll be 10-1 in the Travers.

Rachel Alexandra almost certainly won't run ... and even if she did ... he still would not be 10/1.

I wouldn't be stunned to see MTB laid at like 9/2 on the ML and get bet down more than people expect.

kgar311 · #9 08-11-2009, 09:59 AM

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

NTamm1215 · #10 08-11-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

I'm not saying he'd be a bad play at 5-1 or so but I am concerned that the wheels are going to come off soon. They gave him very little time to "be a horse" after the Belmont and he sure did look tired in the final quarter at Mountaineer. That was his sixth workout yesterday along with a race in the last seven weeks. The first of those workouts also came only 21 days after the Belmont.

NT

boswd · #11 08-11-2009, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

I with you on this. I just have this feeling about MTB in this race with or without RA.

10 pnt move up · #12 08-11-2009, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Worked a bullet yesterday morning at Saratoga under Jamie Theriot. Seemed well within himself, they said hes gained some weight and to me looks like hes taking to Saratoga nicely. As of right now, I know its early, hes my pick for the Travers. The only thing going against him is Mike Smith but it looks like the connections had a little talk with him about his premature moves. I think the mile and a quarter will benefit him, he will be able to sit back longer and not have to worry about being close to the pace. Most people fail to realize it takes alot for a horse to get the mile and a quarter. Hopefully he will be a decent price.

send it in, just send it in, the more the better.

This horse sucks, in the end I said it after the derby its unlikely he wins another major race.

randallscott35 · #13 08-11-2009, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

send it in, just send it in, the more the better.

This horse sucks, in the end I said it after the derby its unlikely he wins another major race.

I totally disagree. Where the Derby came from, I don't know but it wasn't a Giacomo like disaster Derby at all. He ran a legit big time race and followed it up with a solid Preakness and Belmont. He isn't an alltime horse but he is much better than people are giving him credit for.

10 pnt move up · #14 08-11-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I totally disagree. Where the Derby came from, I don't know but it wasn't a Giacomo like disaster Derby at all. He ran a legit big time race and followed it up with a solid Preakness and Belmont. He isn't an alltime horse but he is much better than people are giving him credit for.

I feel like he is an average horse who got hot at the right time and will fade as quickly as he came. Giacomo for all he was not, he was consistent from 2-4 years old, Giacomo would have run down Big Drama IMO with that setup.

NTamm1215 · #15 08-11-2009, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I totally disagree. Where the Derby came from, I don't know but it wasn't a Giacomo like disaster Derby at all. He ran a legit big time race and followed it up with a solid Preakness and Belmont. He isn't an alltime horse but he is much better than people are giving him credit for.

While I agree that he should be given a narrow pass for the WV Derby (even Pt Given narrowly won the Haskell over monsters like Touch Tone) take into consideration that even the horses who he finished in front of in races that played into his hands are not very good. The 2-3-4 finishers in the Derby 0-5since with most of those defeats being quite ugly.

I think the problem with him in the Travers is that he's going to run against current proven commodities like Kensei, horses who have potential like Warrior's Reward (who's a close 2nd to MTB in terms of wretched rides), and a potential monster like Quality Road.

It may not be that he's bad but the water is not as shallow now as it was on Derby day as he got the trip of a lifetime on a track that he loved.

NT

kgar311 · #16 08-11-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

send it in, just send it in, the more the better.

This horse sucks, in the end I said it after the derby its unlikely he wins another major race.

I don't think a couple hundred bucks will make a difference but yea ill be sending it in @ 5-1