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  #1  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:28 PM
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Default Time for IWR to bounce
outta all the horses that could bouce, IWR is on top of my list:

1. IWR
2. PONT
3. QR
4. FF


and you eventula Derby winner : GQ.
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  #2  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:29 PM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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he would still have to beat Dunkirk and Musket Man no?
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  #3  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:34 PM
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Nothing less interesting than those unable to formulate their own method of play and utilizing the neologisms (and tools) of others.

"BOUNCE" is ****IN BORNING
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  #4  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Nothing less interesting than those unable to formulate their own method of play and utilizing the neologisms (and tools) of others.

"BOUNCE" is ****IN BORNING
I don't mind someone using others' handicapping tools, so long as they don't use the silly ones, like "bounce".

--Dunbar
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  #5  
Old 04-17-2009, 05:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Nothing less interesting than those unable to formulate their own method of play and utilizing the neologisms (and tools) of others.

"BOUNCE" is ****IN BORNING
id agree if hadicapping was purely mathematical or logical.
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  #6  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:35 PM
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Perhaps because I'm feeling like a total b!tch today, but between this and the Quality Road thread I'm starting to believe it's National Post Something Totally Unfounded Day.
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  #7  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:39 PM
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I have heard strong rumors that ever since the Gotham - I Want Revenge has been getting tips on how to break from the gate from none other than Evening Attire.
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  #8  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I have heard strong rumors that ever since the Gotham - I Want Revenge has been getting tips on how to break from the gate from none other than Evening Attire.
I heard that Dunkirk has a man crush on Quality Road and that is why he wouldn't pass him in the stretch.
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  #9  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:42 PM
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Abbreviating horse names is perhaps my biggest DT pet peeve.

Incidentally, if General Quarters wins the Derby, I'll eat my 13th mint julep on Derby day, glass and all.
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Old 04-17-2009, 01:43 PM
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the first saturday in may can't get here fast enough


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  #11  
Old 04-18-2009, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Abbreviating horse names is perhaps my biggest DT pet peeve.

Incidentally, if General Quarters wins the Derby, I'll eat my 13th mint julep on Derby day, glass and all.
13th???another frigging lightweight.
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  #12  
Old 04-17-2009, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bernardini
outta all the horses that could bouce, IWR is on top of my list:

1. IWR
2. PONT
3. QR
4. FF


and you eventula Derby winner : GQ.
If you want to be technical he already 'bounced' 10 beyer points in the Wood Memorial from the Gotham. So I'm not sure if he will regress anymore. With sythetic tracks now, I also don't think it is a great idea to solely rely on who has the highest beyers to date. That's sort of taking the easy way out if you ask me.
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  #13  
Old 04-17-2009, 02:04 PM
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It's hard to envision that running hard for an eighth of a mile was so taxing an effort on I Want Revenge that it will cause a regression in this upcoming start.
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  #14  
Old 04-17-2009, 03:53 PM
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Handicapping races that haven't even been drawn yet is always a highly questionable activity, but at this point, in my opinion, I Want Revenge seems like by far the most likely winner of the race to me.
I don't really believe in the "bounce" idea in the first place, but even for those who do, don't the points raised by CSC and Kasept above make him an unlikely candidate for that sort of regression?
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  #15  
Old 04-17-2009, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
Handicapping races that haven't even been drawn yet is always a highly questionable activity..
Maybe I should change the name of the website then..
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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  #16  
Old 04-17-2009, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Maybe I should change the name of the website then..
I've always felt you should switch the "A" and the "I" and call it DerbyTrial.com. Just focus on that one race.
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  #17  
Old 04-17-2009, 04:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Maybe I should change the name of the website then..
I offered that statement only to acknowledge that I recognized the ridiculousness of my own decision in that post to make a prediction regarding who I thought was the "most likely winner" of a race that is still fifteen days away.
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  #18  
Old 04-17-2009, 05:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
It's hard to envision that running hard for an eighth of a mile was so taxing an effort on I Want Revenge that it will cause a regression in this upcoming start.
Excellent point. But I am not using IWR due to Talamo. He's a good jock but he can get a little lost in the moment. The Gotham was a good example where he rode him much harder than he needed to after clearing the field. And while you have to respect his patience early in the Wood, he still almost got him beat in the stretch. I also can't root for anything Mullins is apart of which, admittedly isn't the best handicapping practice. Nice job on Tin Cup Chalice today.
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  #19  
Old 04-17-2009, 05:45 PM
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IWR doesn't have the clearest form in the world but he is probably one of the top 3 or 4 Derby horses.

cheap looking pedigree - but maybe he's just a stud or maybe the right mix with that Argentinian blood

combine the pedigree with having Mullins as the trainer and it's easy to suspect a trainer move-up above his natural class. - however he has been fairly consistent

The Gotham was basically an allowance race - but he had a brilliant finish - however that finish was equaled (at least in times) by Imperial Conformation

The Wood was an awful field of ungraded stakes/allowance type horses - however IWR broke horrible and ran behind a wall of offensive lineman - however the others rushed the pace and set it up for him

lots of questions. He could cheap out in the Derby if he has to run 10 furlongs against some other good horses, and he could also win...
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  #20  
Old 04-17-2009, 06:11 PM
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thats right baby boi , take notes
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