Time for IWR to bounce
 

outta all the horses that could bouce, IWR is on top of my list:

1. IWR
2. PONT
3. QR
4. FF


and you eventula Derby winner : GQ.

he would still have to beat Dunkirk and Musket Man no?

Nothing less interesting than those unable to formulate their own method of play and utilizing the neologisms (and tools) of others.

"BOUNCE" is ****IN BORNING

Perhaps because I'm feeling like a total b!tch today, but between this and the Quality Road thread I'm starting to believe it's National Post Something Totally Unfounded Day.

I have heard strong rumors that ever since the Gotham - I Want Revenge has been getting tips on how to break from the gate from none other than Evening Attire.

I heard that Dunkirk has a man crush on Quality Road and that is why he wouldn't pass him in the stretch.

Abbreviating horse names is perhaps my biggest DT pet peeve.

Incidentally, if General Quarters wins the Derby, I'll eat my 13th mint julep on Derby day, glass and all.

the first saturday in may can't get here fast enough


-bt-

I don't mind someone using others' handicapping tools, so long as they don't use the silly ones, like "bounce".

--Dunbar

If you want to be technical he already 'bounced' 10 beyer points in the Wood Memorial from the Gotham. So I'm not sure if he will regress anymore. With sythetic tracks now, I also don't think it is a great idea to solely rely on who has the highest beyers to date. That's sort of taking the easy way out if you ask me.

It's hard to envision that running hard for an eighth of a mile was so taxing an effort on I Want Revenge that it will cause a regression in this upcoming start.

Handicapping races that haven't even been drawn yet is always a highly questionable activity, but at this point, in my opinion, I Want Revenge seems like by far the most likely winner of the race to me.
I don't really believe in the "bounce" idea in the first place, but even for those who do, don't the points raised by CSC and Kasept above make him an unlikely candidate for that sort of regression?

Maybe I should change the name of the website then..

I've always felt you should switch the "A" and the "I" and call it DerbyTrial.com. Just focus on that one race.

I offered that statement only to acknowledge that I recognized the ridiculousness of my own decision in that post to make a prediction regarding who I thought was the "most likely winner" of a race that is still fifteen days away.

id agree if hadicapping was purely mathematical or logical.

Well, I think that shows there is a lot of excitement here at Derby Trail regarding this year's Derby, I don't know if that will translate to the general public or not.

I like the drama some, so I'm hoping for an upset in tomorrow's Lexington, but only if it's a scintillating performance by a horse that legitimately belongs.

well, i would like to see him weave through 20 horse field should he have a flat footed start. another 10 point bounce is not gonna get it done.

Excellent point. But I am not using IWR due to Talamo. He's a good jock but he can get a little lost in the moment. The Gotham was a good example where he rode him much harder than he needed to after clearing the field. And while you have to respect his patience early in the Wood, he still almost got him beat in the stretch. I also can't root for anything Mullins is apart of which, admittedly isn't the best handicapping practice. Nice job on Tin Cup Chalice today.

IWR doesn't have the clearest form in the world but he is probably one of the top 3 or 4 Derby horses.

cheap looking pedigree - but maybe he's just a stud or maybe the right mix with that Argentinian blood

combine the pedigree with having Mullins as the trainer and it's easy to suspect a trainer move-up above his natural class. - however he has been fairly consistent

The Gotham was basically an allowance race - but he had a brilliant finish - however that finish was equaled (at least in times) by Imperial Conformation

The Wood was an awful field of ungraded stakes/allowance type horses - however IWR broke horrible and ran behind a wall of offensive lineman - however the others rushed the pace and set it up for him

lots of questions. He could cheap out in the Derby if he has to run 10 furlongs against some other good horses, and he could also win...