Inner Track Bias

NoLuvForPletch · #1 03-02-2008, 03:04 PM

When do they go back to the main at Aqueduct?

First watching Channing Hill run away from the 4/5 favorite in the 7th after carving out the fractions, then watching Wishing Wishes not able to get by the Karakorum horse after that one dueled for a half mile, makes me want to stick a fork in my eye...

It is just incredible that race after race, day after day, year after year the track has played this way and there is nothing they can or want to do about it.

blackthroatedwind · #2 03-02-2008, 03:10 PM

Actually it has been even for a little while until today.

And you're complaining about a 5:2 shot???? One who a couple of months ago was running in a $14K claimer? I bet Scatkey hard at 15:1.

pick4 · #3 03-02-2008, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

When do they go back to the main at Aqueduct?

First watching Channing Hill run away from the 4/5 favorite in the 7th after carving out the fractions, then watching Wishing Wishes not able to get by the Karakorum horse after that one dueled for a half mile, makes me want to stick a fork in my eye...

It is just incredible that race after race, day after day, year after year the track has played this way and there is nothing they can or want to do about it.

The jocks let Tergesty set his own pace, he was never pressured until midway on the turn. Even though Tergesti is a once in a blue moon winner the most important thing was they let him set a slow pace.

In the Broadway, Karakorum Starlet outclassed this field. It helped that Tamberino is a 4 furlong sprint and quit horse.

While the track might be favoring speed I would not draw conclusions based on Tergesti and Karakorum Starlet wiring those fields.

blackthroatedwind · #4 03-02-2008, 03:18 PM

I don't disagree with that ( though I don't know what " outclassed " means ) but the entire card has been run in a very inside flow manner that has hindered outside movers much more than recent days.

freddymo · #5 03-02-2008, 03:22 PM

Why bet Aqueduct when Tampa is open? Yesterday Tampa had 2 20 plus dollar horses that would have paid 8 to 12 bucks in NY. Betting Aqueduct is worse then playing Freehold unless your Andy.

the_fat_man · #6 03-02-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why bet Aqueduct when Tampa is open? Yesterday Tampa had 2 20 plus dollar horses that would have paid 8 to 12 bucks in NY. Betting Aqueduct is worse then playing Freehold unless your Andy.

Let me try this one:

because

the quality of horse and jock down there is SO POOR

that it's worse than trying to account for a bias.

Don't get me wrong, I play TAM more than AQU but I'm very selective.

All those middle moves are beyond ridiculous.

freddymo · #7 03-02-2008, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me try this one:

because

the quality of horse and jock down there is SO POOR

that it's worse than trying to account for a bias.

Don't get me wrong, I play TAM more than AQU but I'm very selective.

All those middle moves are beyond ridiculous.

The bettors are clueless make horrible favorites that even a bird brain capper like me know ridiculous to bet.

I really don't look to much at jockeys if Ramon D is top notch then they all sux the same.

pick4 · #8 03-02-2008, 03:22 PM

I just had Remorse and Vikrant in late doubles and was caught by Statesman for the win.

NoLuvForPletch · #9 03-02-2008, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

I just had Remorse and Vikrant in late doubles and was caught by Statesman for the win.

That's a crusher, not only for you but the pick-6ers more so.

2 day carry going into Wednesday.

The biggest problem when the track goes this way is you start eliminating horses because of the bias, not that I would've come up with Statesman, but it really makes handicapping a card impossible.

blackthroatedwind · #10 03-02-2008, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

The biggest problem when the track goes this way is you start eliminating horses because of the bias, not that I would've come up with Statesman, but it really makes handicapping a card impossible.

I agree. It makes it very hard to play....and win.

pick4 · #11 03-02-2008, 03:27 PM

These were cheap horses and I'll just chalk it up "that's horse racing". If I needed those two for a pick 6 or a pick 4 I probably would have had a different outlook.

zippyneedsawin · #12 03-04-2008, 05:21 AM

At least they're back to a 1pm post time. That's a sign that things are heading in a better direction.

NoLuvForPletch · #13 03-03-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

I read this as a good thing. If you're convinced the track surface is biased, so strongly, the longer it stays that way... the better.
Keep an eye on those you thought ran well against the grain, and bet'em back when it looks like they are on a fairer playing field.
These are what good scores are made of.

I thought the part about me "sticking a fork in my eye" would definitely give it a negative slant...

#14 03-03-2008, 02:57 PM

Statesman is the best bottom level claimer this year.

NoLuvForPletch · #15 03-03-2008, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Statesman is the best bottom level claimer this year.

Mr Pants...how you came up with this horse, on this track, on this day, is an amazing feat in itself...hopefully you were rewarded handsomely along with your pick 4 ticket, as the 3 he beat home were the only playable horses (besides the speedy statesman of course) in the race...good job

#16 03-03-2008, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Mr Pants...how you came up with this horse, on this track, on this day, is an amazing feat in itself...hopefully you were rewarded handsomely along with your pick 4 ticket, as the 3 he beat home were the only playable horses (besides the speedy statesman of course) in the race...good job

Well it was a horrendous race to begin with and I just couldn't take what I knew would be short prices on Maragh and Cedeno's horses. I've ripped up too many tickets due to their mediocrity. So I started looking at Statesman and noticed his beyer first off the long layoff was real competitive with the rest of the field. I drew a line through his last effort.

I was guessing that the race would have plenty of speed and he was the most likely out of the bunch to close.

Basically I was really lucky.

Side note...

The track was playing kinda fair all weekend.

NoLuvForPletch · #17 03-03-2008, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Well it was a horrendous race to begin with and I just couldn't take what I knew would be short prices on Maragh and Cedeno's horses. I've ripped up too many tickets due to their mediocrity. So I started looking at Statesman and noticed his beyer first off the long layoff was real competitive with the rest of the field. I drew a line through his last effort.

I was guessing that the race would have plenty of speed and he was the most likely out of the bunch to close.

Basically I was really lucky.

Side note...

The track was playing kinda fair all weekend.

Andy said the same thing, but outside of the 1st race on Saturday you had to be on or near the lead to win...and yesterday, especially as the day wore on, it seemed impossible for horses to pass in the stretch...

i can live with the 7th race because dominguez moronically made 2 moves with his horse and the winner was just cruising, but for Wishing Wishes not to be able to pass the winner in her race, for the entire length of the stretch, after being pressured through the opening quarter plus in 22 and change, put me over the top...