Curlin to be m/l fav

[whodey17]

While in Cincy this past weekend I heard a radio show with Mike Battaglia as the guest. Battaglia stated that he is leaning towards making Curlin the m/l fav followed by Street Sense and then Circular Quay. Battaglia then went on and said he spoke to Angel Cordero and Cordero assured Battaglia that fitness will not be a problem for Quay. Battaglia also said that Quay is his pick to win the 2007 Derby,

[lemoncrush]

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

And that would be?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

And that would be?

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

JG...nevermind

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I think the derby angles are a nice tool to consider for the Derby.. including the three preps angle.. but, to me, Barbaro broke more than the RAN curse last year.. His first prep of the year was the Tropical Derby on JANUARY 1st.. then the Holy Bull on February 4th.. then the Florida Derby on April 1st... so from January 2nd to KY Derby day, he had TWO preps.. (13 weeks leading up to the race.) --yes, I know technically he ran 3x in 2006 before the derby(but would you have tossed him had the Tropical Derby been Dec. 31st, instead of jan 1??)
As far as 'hitting a brick wall' in the final 8th, Barbaro could have easily faced that some concern as you are putting on SS and CQ... IMO.
So, I agree getting 3 preps is a big positive for a contender, but not essential under the right circumstances.
though, again, I think the angles are a useful tool in general.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

I doubt that the third choice will be 5/1.

[cakes44]

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

He couldn't get through the entire field once before they reached the wire.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

He couldn't get through the entire field once before they reached the wire.

Battaglia couldnt get through the entire derby field by the time they go to the gate for the preakness. The worst announcer out there ...hands down.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

WTF? He is the worst ever!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

With all of the runners, he would probably just keep saying "gaining ground" faster and faster until his head exploded.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

I didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this is a joke....if it is...it's not funny....if it's not...you can't be serious.....Now I know I'm dating myself here, but I remember when I was a little guy watching the Dean Martin Celebrity roasts and there was a guy that played a drunk on those things named Foster Brooks....Well I'd rather he call the Derby than Battaglia.....hopefully there is someone on this board that knows who Foster Brooks was.....