Mott playing games with us?

[Scav]

Puts the shades on Court Vision and the horse works 46 and 1, OUT OF A MOTT RUNNER???

Did the vetern know this horse needed the blinks the whole time and was waiting because he knew he would run the race of his life?

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44650

Note: This is not a Court Vision endorsement

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

Puts the shades on Court Vision and the horse works 46 and 1, OUT OF A MOTT RUNNER???

Did the vetern know this horse needed the blinks the whole time and was waiting because he knew he would run the race of his life?

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44650

Note: This is not a Court Vision endorsement

No way. This was a last ditch attempt to put some semblance of speed into the horse and change things up, and he got more than what he asked for. Could help a little bit, but it still doesn't make him a win contender in my book.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No way. This was a last ditch attempt to put some semblance of speed into the horse and change things up, and he got more than what he asked for. Could help a little bit, but it still doesn't make him a win contender in my book.

If you had $20 in front of you, and HAD to box five horses, who would be those five, right now?

[slotdirt]

Scav, I know you didn't ask me, but it's an interesting question, and my five at this exact moment in time would have to be Colonel John, Big Brown, Smooth Air, Z Fortune, and....Visionaire? I have no idea actually. Those first four are the only four I actually feel half-decent about at all.

[Scav]

The question is for all, although Ateam is the king of responded, and then forgeting he responded, and not responding to the response until 4 days later.

Without any information my five would be

Pyro, Colonel John, Z Fortune, and the last two would be between Court Vision, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, and Anak Nakal.

I can say this, if Z Fortune's sheet is what I think it is, he will be my tout of the Derby, at what will probably be in the 15-20/1 range.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

If you had $20 in front of you, and HAD to box five horses, who would be those five, right now?

Glad you asked, as I've recently narrowed it down to five horses I think can win. In order of value, those are:

Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, Colonel John, Big Brown

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Glad you asked, as I've recently narrowed it down to five horses I think can win. In order of value, those are:

Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, Colonel John, Big Brown

Oh my god, the kool aid has spread to you too.....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

Oh my god, the kool aid has spread to you too.....

Which Kool-Aid would that be?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Which Kool-Aid would that be?

SMOOTH AIR!!

From a connection standpoint, I would love to see him win, but tell me how he isn't quitting after the final turn

[golfer]

Me thinks he's referring to Smooth Air?

Damn, too late!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

SMOOTH AIR!!

From a connection standpoint, I would love to see him win, but tell me how he isn't quitting after the final turn

Huh? What says he is?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Huh? What says he is?

Everything about the horse. Here is my opinion, while outlandish, I think has some merit.

I personally think he was ridden last time to get 2nd, period. Stutts knew that 2nd got him to the Derby. Riding a horse for 2nd is alot different then 3rd, and there wasn't crap in that race anyways.

good story that will make a good 8 minute piece on ESPN or NBC, but the horse aint hitting the top 6

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

Everything about the horse. Here is my opinion, while outlandish, I think has some merit.

I personally think he was ridden last time to get 2nd, period. Stutts knew that 2nd got him to the Derby. Riding a horse for 2nd is alot different then 3rd, and there wasn't crap in that race anyways.

good story that will make a good 8 minute piece on ESPN or NBC, but the horse aint hitting the top 6

"Everything about the horse". Well, that's it, I'm sold.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Scav

Everything about the horse. Here is my opinion, while outlandish, I think has some merit.

I personally think he was ridden last time to get 2nd, period. Stutts knew that 2nd got him to the Derby. Riding a horse for 2nd is alot different then 3rd, and there wasn't crap in that race anyways.

good story that will make a good 8 minute piece on ESPN or NBC, but the horse aint hitting the top 6

What pray tell could possibly make you like Anak Nakal more than this horse? Or any other horse running for that matter?? Is it simply because he'll be 50-1 or better most likely??

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

Without any information my five would be

Pyro, Colonel John, Z Fortune, and the last two would be between Court Vision, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, and Anak Nakal.

Scavs, Give up on Anak Nakal....he stinks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If Smooth Air wins I will be very shocked.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

The question is for all, although Ateam is the king of responded, and then forgeting he responded, and not responding to the response until 4 days later.

Without any information my five would be

Pyro, Colonel John, Z Fortune, and the last two would be between Court Vision, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, and Anak Nakal.

I can say this, if Z Fortune's sheet is what I think it is, he will be my tout of the Derby, at what will probably be in the 15-20/1 range.

I'm definitely worried about this guy becoming this year's wiseguy horse. There's one every year and they get overbet like crazy. Lots of people are talking about this one in the same way you are. His sheet is going to look great and his AR derby was rock solid.

Granted, you'll still get your 15-1, but not sure that's a really solid fair price based on what he's done.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm definitely worried about this guy becoming this year's wiseguy horse. There's one every year and they get overbet like crazy. Lots of people are talking about this one in the same way you are. His sheet is going to look great and his AR derby was rock solid.

Granted, you'll still get your 15-1, but not sure that's a really solid fair price based on what he's done.

Brian, Maybe I am a wise guy then??@!/?

Joey, Maybe I am wrong about Smooth Air, but I highly doubt it. I agree my argument was nil

Horse/Drugs, NO, not giving up, if the darn horse even runs. I get the feeling he is being entered to eliminate speed, to help War Pass, but you never know...Look, I understand his races this year have been garbage, but there are many horses on this trail that had their fates sealed for this day, back in September/October/November, I just think that maybe Zito has taken it REAL easy on him, and maybe he runs huge. I'll include him in exacta boxes just based on this notion alone, at what will be very long odds.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I agree with Spence that Z Fortune might be a "wiseguy" sheet horse if his "pattern" looks well.

Z Fortune got a bigger sheet number in the Risen Star than Pyro did - because he was one path wider on both turns (2 lengths total) and there was a 6 pound weight spread at 8.5 furlongs (which equals 2.04 lengths total)

Thus - Pyro won the race by 2 lengths over Z Fortune - but Z Fortune's sheet figure came back slightly over 2 lengths faster.

The problem with that is that Z Fortune was wide behind a slow pace and in the clear - where as Pyro was buried in last behind a crawl of a pace - and the race pretty much became a 2 furlong sprint with Pyro conceding a head start to the rest of the field and having to slice his way though the pack.

Z Fortune is a horse who's chances I can't totally bash and trash - I just don't like them though.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with Spence that Z Fortune might be a "wiseguy" sheet horse if his "pattern" looks well.

Z Fortune got a bigger sheet number in the Risen Star than Pyro did - because he was one path wider on both turns (2 lengths total) and there was a 6 pound weight spread at 8.5 furlongs (which equals 2.04 lengths total)

Thus - Pyro won the race by 2 lengths over Z Fortune - but Z Fortune's sheet figure came back slightly over 2 lengths faster.

The problem with that is that Z Fortune was wide behind a slow pace and in the clear - where as Pyro was buried in last behind a crawl of a pace - and the race pretty much became a 2 furlong sprint with Pyro conceding a head start to the rest of the field and having to slice his way though the pack.

Z Fortune is a horse who's chances I can't totally bash and trash - I just don't like them though.

Originally Posted by Scav

Brian, Maybe I am a wise guy then??@!/?

Scav -- I like the horse a bit, based on everything I've seen and everything I've heard. He's definitely not my favorite, but just from where I'm sitting, he just has that feel to me, much like SNS two years ago. Obviously they came in differently, but he is just starting to seem like that horse that everyone is talking about, projecting a good race in his next, loving his AR Derby and saying it was better than it looked -- if the horse runs a lick in a workout over the CD surface you can kiss a fair price goodbye. Happens every year, and I'm just getting a gut feeling that he's your guy this year. His wins have by and large come with sickeningly sweet setups, and that's my main knock on him, but his style is right and he's going to be one of the go-to horses for sheet players.