This Given Saturday

[Thunder Gulch]

Whether you like him or not, this is a terrible spot for Street Sense if anywhere near the morning line 4-5. Any Given Saturday will be low odds himself, but at 8-5, he's a steal against a field where he would be 3-5 if Street Sense weren't taking any money. Swallow your foolish longshot pride and unload on AGS.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Whether you like him or not, this is a terrible spot for Street Sense if anywhere near the morning line 4-5. Any Given Saturday will be low odds himself, but at 8-5, he's a steal against a field where he would be 3-5 if Street Sense weren't taking any money. Swallow your foolish longshot pride and unload on AGS.

Or better yet, unload on Optimistic Steve.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

or dont unload on anyone... and play some pick 4's

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I love this horse but I don't think this is the spot to unload on him.

What is your opinion on this race? I can't see Street Sense being 100%, but maybe he doesn't need to be. Lori and I were told last week that Pletcher's fave derby horse is Any Given Saturday (and Scat Daddy for sentimental reasons.)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think it's ABS's race to lose. He'll be a short price and I don't want to bet him at that. I think Street Sense is the real deal and I have heard he is actually doing well but I don't want him at what will be a short price either, and like you said this race is just a stepping stone to what the big goal is. Nafzger knows what he is doing.
Honestly unless I decide to bet some pic 4's I'll just be watching the race. The 2 Zito's are intersting because maybe Most Distinguished has turned the corner finally but I just don't think he is good enough to compete. Optimistic Steve IMO is the real deal but this is a tough spot. Personally I think he has a big year maybe not winning grade 1's but certainly a lot of money to be made in NYB races and he might just be good enough to compete with these horses later. Just not right now.

Thanks for your opinion... I agree with you, but might take a chance with Optimistic Steve because his odds will probably be too good to pass up.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm pessimistic about Steve. Gotta stay closer to the front to have a shot.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm pessimistic about Steve. Gotta stay closer to the front to have a shot.

Haha! That's hilarious.

The Naf moved Street Sense up a week according to my recollection. That means the horse is working well. If this horse is working well. He can win without being full bore. Ole Carl says we just want him to run a smooth race. Relaxed, and balanced, dont matter if I win says ole Carl... Horse is too good, even if he struts around in a very even manner.
Just because they dont need to win a prep does not mean they wont win it anyway with a horse like this. This race is a no go for me.

The only horse I like in the Derby preps is Officer Rocket at the right price. And I hate having other horses needing to crater in order to win. But thats what has got to happen in the Rebel for Officer Rocket to win. Curlin, Flying First Class and Teufelsbergerhead have got to do some burning up front. I hate having to count on that. This should be the race to bet if you have to bet a Derby prep. D. Wayne is ready to burn some flesh.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Thanks for your opinion... I agree with you, but might take a chance with Optimistic Steve because his odds will probably be too good to pass up.

Optimistic Steve is lightly raced, so he's obviously got room to improve.

But we're asking HUGE improvement here to have a chance this. His best race ever is about equal to Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Most Distinguished's career WORST race ever, including their respective first times out.

If you're fishing for a price, Most Distinguished seems like a much better option in here because he doesn't get much better, but he doesn't get much worse.

Steve would be a total surprise for the win, if you ask me.

[ArlJim78]

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

Agree.

--Dunbar

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

for once i totally agree with you, earlier this week i was full blown on making a big win bet on street sense i have definitly backed off that because of value, and a few other things, but i will say that i still think he wins and im strongly considering playing a heavy pick 4 with him keyed on the back end, the horses you mentioned that street sense beat have all been great, you also have stormello who ran huge, so he beat alot of really good horses who have all come back to run well, and for the ppl who say the juvenile was a fluke, i say that in all of his previous starts he was no worst then 3rd, all except for possibly his maiden score were vs very good company.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

If Any Given Saturday and Grapelli both win tomorrow, Pletcher might have over half of a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby. If this happens, I plan to introduce a bill in the Texas House of Representatives declaring Todd Pletcher "Little Baby Jesus"

Todd went to High School at Madison in San Antonio, so I think this makes him eligible. I dont think he has the earnings in State.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

kind of like last year at tampa bay with another horse who was supposed to be a standout, bluegrass cat...... everyone keeps saying he wont be cranked, but he dosent have to be cranked to beat this group, im going to bed now, good luck to everyone tommorw

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

The BC JUV irrelevant? How can one of the biggest figure two year old races ever not be relevant?

Okay, four months off is something to consider. But I see 10 works since Jan 29th. He hasn't exactly been resting on his laurels.

The tricky Tampa surface? Yeah thats another factor, but he's ran well at several tracks including the poly at Keeneland. I don't have the feeling that he's going to have that much difficulty with it.

As far as trainerspeak goes, well all I can say is bet on trainerspeak at your own risk. I think if Nafzger gets his good performance then Street Sense wins.

Yep, you can't ignore anything TP sends out, and I'm not advocating that people unload on Street Sense. Its just that he's like the 800lb gorilla in the corner, hard to ignore.

Based on the very explosive moves he made in his last two races, I honestly think he could win this not "fully cranked" and even if he didn't fully care for the surface. But I don't feel inclined to bet on this one, rather just watch this time.

[JJP]

A 60% Street Sense blows these horses away.

And anybody who thought the Juvenile was a fluky performance didn't watch the Futurity at Keeneland when Street Sense ran a sensational race. 4-5 wide on first turn, giant sustained move to force a fast pace 4 wide on the 2nd turn, put all the other speed away, and after all that, Circular Quay beat him for second by 1 inch and Great Hunter beat him for the win by about a length.

[hockey2315]

This race is probably a no-bet situation unless you're playing the pk4 or show a lack of discipline like me. . . with that being said:

Pletcher has been pointing AGS towards this race for a while. He's got a race over the track and in my opinion is underrated. I think if the two favorites get into a slugfest in the final strides he takes it because he has proven his gameness and also will be more cranked up than Street Sense. And with all due respect to Borel and Nafzger, Johnny V. and Pletcher are a little more intimidating.

I'm seeing Street Sense in the same way that I (correctly) saw Summer Doldrums last week. Violette undertrained SD for fear of a bounce and SD had a lackluster performance. Nafzger probably doesn't fear the bounce for this horse because of the time off between races, but he is obviously trying to start him off slow and he won't be anywhere close to 100% for this race.

I still think Street Sense's health should still be in question despite the way he's supposedly working and it will be interesting to see how he looks in the post parade. I've been on AGS since before his race vs. Tiz Wonderful and I'm not jumping off now. . .

I LOVE Optimistic Steve so I'll probably play a $20 exacta AGS over Optimistic Steve and $10 Exacta the other way. . .

[docicu3]

Is there nary a believer in Kev's wisdom that the quirky sandy surface of Tampa has humbled many a shipper. AICG and AGS are the only horses to run on this track with a likely 15-20 mph wind making things even tougher.

Street Sense loves CD but will not have as comfortable time on this track.
I like AGS and AICG exacta box hoping that this time AICG holds on for the better price. Street sense has the benefit of the CD/Borel homecourt the first Saturday in May.

It isn't always the better horse but the better horse for that track that day!

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Is there nary a believer in Kev's wisdom that the quirky sandy surface of Tampa has humbled many a shipper. AICG and AGS are the only horses to run on this track with a likely 15-20 mph wind making things even tougher.

Street Sense loves CD but will not have as comfortable time on this track.
I like AGS and AICG exacta box hoping that this time AICG holds on for the better price. Street sense has the benefit of the CD/Borel homecourt the first Saturday in May.

It isn't always the better horse but the better horse for that track that day!

The wind is howling here, currently 20mph gusting to 30mph out of the north (per weather.com). That means it will be a head wind down the backstretch and a tailwind coming home.

I don't think the Tampa Sand is nearly as quirky as it was say 5-10 years ago. It is definitely not as deep as it used to be. Generally, if a horse likes Churchill he will like Tampa.

Taking a stand with one of the standouts in the P4 may be the only way to make enough money to justify the risk. That said, leave either off your ticket at your own peril.

I think there are some juicy opportunities in the undercard Stakes.
GL to all today.