5/4: Churchill Downs (144th Kentucky Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 144TH KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Go Google Yourself 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 First Alternate 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 She's Pretty Lucky 3-1 WON ($7.60)


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dabinett 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Pachinko 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Killay 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Wild N Ready 4-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Keros 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Industrialist 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bugle Notes 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #4 Bueno Bueno Bueno 20-1 2nd


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Keep Quiet 4-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Krampus 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Saham 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Thatcher Street 10-1 9th


5th: 63rd Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

If Mia Mischief has learned to rate at all, she should beat these..

Most Likely: #3 Mia Mischief 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #5 Talk Veuve to Me 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gas Station Sushi 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Amy's Challenge 5-2 7th


P4 Grid:

2: 7 (A), 4-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
3: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 4-10 (C)
4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


6th: 33rd La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Salty runs here..

Most Likely: #8 Martini Glass 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Abel Tasman 1-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Tiger Moth 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Salty 3-1 WON ($10.40)


7th: 24th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bucchero 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Vision Perfect 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Latent Revenge 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Delectation 6-1 4th


P4 Grid:

3: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 2-4-10 (C)
4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), 8 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
6: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), 8 (C)
5: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
6: 1-3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: 15th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Interestingly, Always Dreaming had one of those 'Derby works' we look for and may be ready for an A effort 2nd off the break..

Most Likely: #3 Always Dreaming 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Hoppertunity 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Backyard Heaven 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Good Samaritan 5-2 3rd


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Electric Forest 3-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Sworn Silence 8-1 8th
Best Value: #3 C P Quality 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Upset Brewing 9-2 3rd


10th: 34th Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Toinette 12-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #11 Rushing Fall 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Daddy Is a Legend 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Altea 6-1 5th


11th: 144th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-TC-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DBL, P3, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Midnight Bisou 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonder Gadot 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Coach Rocks 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #14 Monomoy Girl 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Super/Hi-5: #13 Eskimo Kisses 15-1 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 7-9 (A), 5 (B), 1-8-10 (C)
8: 3-4-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), 10 (B), 3-4-6-9 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 2-3-13-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 3-4-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), - (B), 3-4-6-10 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 7-13-14 (B), 3-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

KO: 10 (A), 2-5 (B), 13-14 (C)
TC: 1-3-9-10 (A), - (B), 4-5-6-7 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3 = $36
All A's: 1x4x1 = 4 x $5 = $20


Oaks-Derby DBL:

KO: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3 = 15 x $2 = $30
All A's: 3x1 = 3 x $10 = $30


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Ox Eyed Daisy 9-2 -
Next Best: #6 She's a Julie 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Gio Game 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #2 Princess of the Nyl 8-1 4th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m

Most Likely: #2 Rizzoli 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Tequila Sunrise 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Auspicious Babe 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Ipanema Beach 3-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

9: 2 (A), 10 (B), 3-4-6-9 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
12: 6-8-10 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), 4-6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x5x5x1 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 1x4x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
12: 6-8-10 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x3x3x1 = 27 x .50 = $13.50

$.50 Pick 4 (7-14-10-2) Paid $76.60


Good luck!
Steve