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#1
07-12-2014, 05:15 AM
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7/12: Belmont ($23k C/O); Delaware (6th-9th); Arlington (7th-10th)
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES 5th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) Not a desperate group of NY maidens and no easy task narrowing options. Sand Paper is a ridiculous 30-1 off an open company seasonal debut and now gets first Lasix and blinkers for Pat Kelly. Bryce Bryce Baby and Pepi's Find probably need to be on your back up tickets.. Most Likely: #6 Hampden Fiveone 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Sand Paper 30-1 WON ($44.00) Next Best: #9 King Gettigan 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Startripenterprise 6-1 7th 6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Wake Up in Malibu 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Archer Hill 5-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Hooked Forever 5-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Wild Finish 8-1 6th 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD) Wide open extended turf sprint with 7 of the 12 looking like win candidates. Spread out if playing P4. Pick and pray slot in P6.. Most Likely: #5 Eddy's Time 9-2 6th Best Value: #8 Eurokay by Me 12-1 7th Next Best: #10 Saratoga Karaoke 6-1 5th Exotics Use: #6 Malibu Queen 6-1 4th 8th: CLM/$40, 3+, 1m (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Cousin Michael 2-1 Next Best: #4 Divine Child 7-2 5th Best Value: #2 Bobby V. 20-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 Associate 4-1 WON ($16.00) 9th: Bowling Green H. (G2), 4+, 12f-T (DD) Grandeur overdue for win but unless Rosario is going to keep him closer today, there's no guarantee here with little speed involved. Decision of Chamois (here or DEL) important to scenario. Shortish field but no easy solutions.. Most Likely: #5 Grandeur 6-5 2nd Best Value: #7 Reflecting 8-1 5th Next Best: #1 Hangover Kid 5-1 WON ($11.40) Exotics Use: #3 Boisterous 3-1 4th 10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT Sequence ends as it starts, with iffy set of maidens that may be vulnerable to either of the first time starters. AE-13 Josie's Prospect (entered back Sunday) a major player if in.. [i]Most Likely: #3 Joshans Giant 5-1 3rd Best Value: #5 Lakeview Lady 10-1 WON ($13.80) Next Best: #4 Pie's First Lady 3-1 4th Exotics Use:#12 Home to Carrowkeel 12-1 6th DELAWARE PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: Fort Delaware, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Very well balanced set here and 6 of 8 look to be needed in terms of starting multi-race plays.. Best Value: #2 Avarice 6-1 2nd-WON on DQ ($6.20) Next Best: #5 Picko's Pride 4-1 WON-DQ'D to 7th Exotics Use: #7 Adirondack King 8-1 4th-3rd on DQ Super Add: #3 King Henry 7-2 5th-4th on DQ 7th: Sweet and Sassy, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD) Defending champ Winning Image the clear speed and difficult to pass late.. Most Likely: #5 Winning Image 7-2 2nd Best Value: #7 Interest Free 6-1 4th Next Best: #8 Lion D N A 4-1 7th Exotics Use: #4 She's Ordained 8-1 3rd 8th: Cape Henlopen, 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD) Very tough group considering the $50k satch. As Nick Tammaro noted Friday on ATR, Xmas Sky the lone player eligible to engage Bellarmine. If he doesn't, pace will be soft and McPeek trainee named for Louisville college will wire. Other than that, Talk Show Man jumps out at me as likely to outrun 12-1 odds.. Most Likely: #8 Bellarmine 8-1 9th Best Value: #6 Talk Show Man 12-1 2nd Exotics Use: #12 Dannhauser 15-1 8th Super Add: #5 Holiday Star 8-1 3rd 9th: Delaware H. (G1), F&M-3+, 10f (DD) Nothing should prevent a Princess win here, but the other accomplished graded stakes runners here are not completely over-matched either. Gamay Noir (10-1) is the right price key underneath. She's out of an Unbridled mare and may be ideal covering the additional furlong required here.. Most Likely: #6 Princess of Sylmar 1-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Gamay Noir 10-1 4th Next Best: #3 Molly Morgan 3-1 5th ARLINGTON PARK POST-SCRATCHES 7th: Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Mister Mardi Gras 5-1 5th Next Best: #2 War Dancer 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Admiral Kitten 3-1 2nd 8th: Stars and Stripes, 3+, 12f-T (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 The Pizza Man 7-2 WON ($5.60) Best Value: #6 Seton Hall 8-1 5th Next Best: #8 Olympic Thunder 6-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Dreams Cut Short 20-1 7th 9th: American Derby (G3), Thoroughly entertaining group and I don't think you're required to accept the obvious short prices including Divine Oath who may struggle with the added distance.. Most Likely: #7 Our Channel 6-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Hesinfront 8-1 6th Next Best: #4 Schoolofhardrocks 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Giacallure 15-1 8th 10th: Modesty H. (G3), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD) 14 horses field so another spot where you need not pay attention to the ML. Swing from your heels.. Most Likely: #5 Kepi 10-1 6th Best Value: #2 Street of Gold 30-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Every Way 15-1 4th Exotics Use: #13 I'm Already Sexy 8-1 WON ($10.80) Super Add: #7 Dance Again 15-1 8th Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-12-2014 at 06:06 PM. 
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#3
07-12-2014, 07:16 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
07-12-2014, 11:51 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
07-12-2014, 02:30 PM
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SAND PAPER!!! You are the MAN Steve!
__________________
"Are you losing?" - Mrs. Wire "Winning less than planned" - Mr. Wire
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#10
07-12-2014, 09:25 PM
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THX re: Sand Paper fellas.. That was sweet. Didn't understand the 30-1 ML on him and was the kind of bomb you try whenever you can. Fun day overall. Tried a lot of price plays and got plenty of run. Hope everyone did well!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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