7/12: Belmont ($23k C/O); Delaware (6th-9th); Arlington (7th-10th)
 

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Not a desperate group of NY maidens and no easy task narrowing options. Sand Paper is a ridiculous 30-1 off an open company seasonal debut and now gets first Lasix and blinkers for Pat Kelly. Bryce Bryce Baby and Pepi's Find probably need to be on your back up tickets..

Most Likely: #6 Hampden Fiveone 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sand Paper 30-1 WON ($44.00)
Next Best: #9 King Gettigan 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Startripenterprise 6-1 7th


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wake Up in Malibu 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Archer Hill 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Hooked Forever 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Finish 8-1 6th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Wide open extended turf sprint with 7 of the 12 looking like win candidates. Spread out if playing P4. Pick and pray slot in P6..

Most Likely: #5 Eddy's Time 9-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Eurokay by Me 12-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Saratoga Karaoke 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Malibu Queen 6-1 4th


8th: CLM/$40, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cousin Michael 2-1
Next Best: #4 Divine Child 7-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Bobby V. 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Associate 4-1 WON ($16.00)


9th: Bowling Green H. (G2), 4+, 12f-T (DD)

Grandeur overdue for win but unless Rosario is going to keep him closer today, there's no guarantee here with little speed involved. Decision of Chamois (here or DEL) important to scenario. Shortish field but no easy solutions..

Most Likely: #5 Grandeur 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Reflecting 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Hangover Kid 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Boisterous 3-1 4th


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Sequence ends as it starts, with iffy set of maidens that may be vulnerable to either of the first time starters. AE-13 Josie's Prospect (entered back Sunday) a major player if in..

[i]Most Likely: #3 Joshans Giant 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Lakeview Lady 10-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #4 Pie's First Lady 3-1 4th
Exotics Use:#12 Home to Carrowkeel 12-1 6th



DELAWARE PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Fort Delaware, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Very well balanced set here and 6 of 8 look to be needed in terms of starting multi-race plays..

Best Value: #2 Avarice 6-1 2nd-WON on DQ ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Picko's Pride 4-1 WON-DQ'D to 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Adirondack King 8-1 4th-3rd on DQ
Super Add: #3 King Henry 7-2 5th-4th on DQ


7th: Sweet and Sassy, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Defending champ Winning Image the clear speed and difficult to pass late..

Most Likely: #5 Winning Image 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Interest Free 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Lion D N A 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 She's Ordained 8-1 3rd


8th: Cape Henlopen, 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Very tough group considering the $50k satch. As Nick Tammaro noted Friday on ATR, Xmas Sky the lone player eligible to engage Bellarmine. If he doesn't, pace will be soft and McPeek trainee named for Louisville college will wire. Other than that, Talk Show Man jumps out at me as likely to outrun 12-1 odds..

Most Likely: #8 Bellarmine 8-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Talk Show Man 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Dannhauser 15-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Holiday Star 8-1 3rd


9th: Delaware H. (G1), F&M-3+, 10f (DD)

Nothing should prevent a Princess win here, but the other accomplished graded stakes runners here are not completely over-matched either. Gamay Noir (10-1) is the right price key underneath. She's out of an Unbridled mare and may be ideal covering the additional furlong required here..

Most Likely: #6 Princess of Sylmar 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Gamay Noir 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Molly Morgan 3-1 5th



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mister Mardi Gras 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Admiral Kitten 3-1 2nd


8th: Stars and Stripes, 3+, 12f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 The Pizza Man 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Seton Hall 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Olympic Thunder 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Dreams Cut Short 20-1 7th


9th: American Derby (G3),

Thoroughly entertaining group and I don't think you're required to accept the obvious short prices including Divine Oath who may struggle with the added distance..

Most Likely: #7 Our Channel 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Hesinfront 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Schoolofhardrocks 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Giacallure 15-1 8th


10th: Modesty H. (G3), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

14 horses field so another spot where you need not pay attention to the ML. Swing from your heels..

Most Likely: #5 Kepi 10-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Street of Gold 30-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Every Way 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #13 I'm Already Sexy 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #7 Dance Again 15-1 8th


Good luck!
Steve

20 mins West of Arlington and its pouring right now. Guessing Yielding to Soft today for the stakes and the other races will be off the turf.

Jeez.. that's too bad. You're going out of course, yes Tom?

Nah, tied up, and not in a good way.

BEL SCR/CHG'S


DEL SCR/CHG'S


AP SCR/CHG'S

SAND PAPER!!! You are the MAN Steve!:tro:

Steve, in the 8th at Arlington, Pizza Man is the 7 and Dreams Cut Short is the 5.

Great start to the day!!:tro::$:

Nice call on Sand Piper. Hope you boxed your picks for the tri.

THX re: Sand Paper fellas.. That was sweet. Didn't understand the 30-1 ML on him and was the kind of bomb you try whenever you can. Fun day overall. Tried a lot of price plays and got plenty of run. Hope everyone did well!

Jeesh, you picked the super in the Belmont 5th!