GP P6 carryover

[tector]

This is getting interesting again.

It is now at $1.3m+. There are 8 racing days left. If this holds we could be looking at a huge mandatory payout on $.10 increment bet. While I never bet this thing, it would be irresistible at that point.

You know if you had six races of nine horses each (just for some plug numbers), you could cover every combination for a little over $53k. Is this a good strategy? No (also, I don't have a spare $53k lying around). All I am illustrating is that I think deep pocket stabbers would be greatly encouraged by how much they cover for so little, so you could have a real frenzy.

It would be interesting at least. Here's hoping it happens.

[joeydb]

I agree. Interesting - and I'd love to see it go high (wish it wasn't hit earlier this season yet - would have been HUGE.)

But you're correct - to the big boys where $53k lost gambling is just a bad weekend, why wouldn't they try? Unless there are too many of them and they know about how many their competition is numbered.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by joeydb

I agree. Interesting - and I'd love to see it go high (wish it wasn't hit earlier this season yet - would have been HUGE.)

But you're correct - to the big boys where $53k lost gambling is just a bad weekend, why wouldn't they try? Unless there are too many of them and they know about how many their competition is numbered.

Given the format of having to own the only ticket one would have to be an idiot to play a 50 K ticket. This hasnt carried this far because no one has been able to tab 6 winners. I think the value here is a 200 buck ticket shooting for a 5K split. Looking at Wed card and it is an almost sure carry. A couple smallish fields with a couple of tough favorites.

[declansharbor]

I'm eager to see what the p6 pays on Wednesday, as it is easily the worst sequence of races that I've seen since playing the wager. A total pass.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I'm eager to see what the p6 pays on Wednesday, as it is easily the worst sequence of races that I've seen since playing the wager. A total pass.

Easy sequence or bad races?

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by jms62

Easy sequence or bad races?

A mixture of both. You mentioned earlier about the smallish fields early in the sequence and tough favorites. I agree.

The first race of the sequence is key to this thing being hit, imo. On the day the jackpot was scooped, the guy hit the all button in the first 3 races and was lucky enough to catch the 50-1 in leg 1. It's big to catch a price in that leg because that's the leg that everybody gets to see how the horses are being bet. (Example...on Saturday, Rosario, on the 7, won the first leg on a horse that was bet down to 3-1 from a 20-1 morning line. The horse DNF in his only attempt prior. I think that if the race was the 2nd one of the sequence and people were not given the chance to see how much the horse was being bet, that a portion of the people who included the horse would have omitted from the ticket altogether. Instead, 440k+ tickets were still alive after first leg and that number quickly became 21k once the 25-1 romped in the second leg)

I personally love throwing a $200-$300 ticket at this thing twice a week when I feel the favorites are vulnerable.

Chopping Twilight Eclipse off the ticket at the last moment STILL stings when I think about it. He scared the life out of me once I saw him in the post parade and he certainly exploded in the stretch. Was hoping he ran off a little TOO much in the post parade as JJ was trying to stranglehold him, but I guess he was just THAT fit.

[Calzone Lord]

It will obviously be a VERY advantageous betting situation on closing day if a seven-figure carryover is forced out on a dime increment bet.

I'm sure they're going to put the six biggest fields they can in the sequence.

Hopefully there is at least one very solid stand-out big favorite in there.

I'd rather try and take a shot and hit the thing five or six different times for a dime, than spread way out in each race with a very expensive ticket and make merely a good profit that way if I can hit it doing that.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I'm eager to see what the p6 pays on Wednesday, as it is easily the worst sequence of races that I've seen since playing the wager. A total pass.

Funny Mike that you drew this conclusion.. I glanced at it Sunday trying to decide what to do for tomorrow and was equally unmotivated by the sequence.. I ended up doing it anyway after finishing the Aqueduct P4 last night, but it's not a fun set of races.

[Calzone Lord]

Why even bother with it until closing day?

You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet.

It's sucker bait until closing day.

[tector]

Originally Posted by jms62

Given the format of having to own the only ticket one would have to be an idiot to play a 50 K ticket. This hasnt carried this far because no one has been able to tab 6 winners. I think the value here is a 200 buck ticket shooting for a 5K split. Looking at Wed card and it is an almost sure carry. A couple smallish fields with a couple of tough favorites.

That's the point of my post--on closing day the "format" suddenly changes (not that I was advocating a $53k bet anyway).

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Why even bother with it until closing day?

You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet.

It's sucker bait until closing day.

We covered this ground during the last 7 figure run-up.. People are playing small-moderate tix for the daily payoff and are having fun with it. I stopped trying to argue against the logic of it.. I hit one myself actually.

[declansharbor]

I must be a sucker then. Would't be the first time and certainly isn't my last time. I personally find the wager to be a fun alternative to playing vertically race after race.

All I know is that I could throw up a $300 ticket on all remaining racing days (not that i would) and $1000 on mandatory payout day, have them all burn up in flames, and STILL walk away profitable from that specific wager. I was fortunate enough to hit the wager 4 times (twice alone on cheaper tickets, twice in a 'syndicate' ).

Caveman-esque? Surely. You'll never hear me say otherwise. Lots of fun to track while on the clock though, perhaps that's why I was suckered in.

[tector]

Not hit today--the countdown is at 7.

[hi_im_god]

it's going to be an effectively zero takeout bet the last day assuming no one hits before. i'm a fan for that reason alone.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Why even bother with it until closing day?

You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet.

It's sucker bait until closing day.

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay.

What type of multi-win wager, even over just a 3-race sequence, doesn't pay well over the parlay?

Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card?

Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%.

However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER.

I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig.

How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

considering that takeout on the win bet is applied 6x to a parlay, i think you might be setting a low bar for determining what constitutes a good return.

i'm not against this bet in any manner. it doesn't appear to have cannibalized handle elsewhere. if people want to have fun with it, i'm all for that.

but whatever favorable return you think you see now, how much greater is it going to be when instead of holding out 40%, you're getting all that held back money added in?

for me, anticipating the last day is a lot more fun than tossing money at it now.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

considering that takeout on the win bet is applied 6x to a parlay, i think you might be setting a low bar for determining what constitutes a good return.

Very low standards.

And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use.

The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races.

Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th.

Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5
Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1
Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1

The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents.

Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

What type of multi-win wager, even over just a 3-race sequence, doesn't pay well over the parlay?

Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card?

Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%.

However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER.

I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig.

How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Very low standards.

And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use.

The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races.

Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th.

Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5
Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1
Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1

The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents.

Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.

Actually it isn't that low of a bar. I did the math here:
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...1&postcount=44

Comparison to parlay is simply a way to normalize the results and compare different horizontal wagers against the same bar. Obviously nobody actually does a 6 race parlay these days, no need to (although as recently as 2007 you actually could if you wanted to with a punch card at NYRA)

The average pick 3 only pays about 1.3X the parlay. In the data set I looked at, at Aqueduct (which obviously has robust pick 4 pools), the average pick 4 was 1.91X the parlay.

As for your question about SA Pick 5's, the one in you stated paid 2.2X the parlay ($716.86/.50)- a pretty normal amount for that wager. Over the past 15 racing days the average has been 2.3X the parlay, with a low of 1.06X (March 8th) and a high of 3.68X (March 22nd). Oddly enough, the second lowest payoff was actually the day they had the carryover- March 1st, where the payoff was only 1.4X the parlay.

My point is this- despite the seemingly criminal takeout for the average player, it actually stacks up favorably well to other horizontal wagers. Not to mention with the low entry point it gives said average player an actual chance of feeling the sweet success of a pick 6. So many people just automatically assume it's terrible by just looking at the takeout and bash away, which frustrates a math guy like me.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not to mention with the low entry point it gives said average player an actual chance of feeling the sweet success of a pick 6. So many people just automatically assume it's terrible by just looking at the takeout and bash away, which frustrates a math guy like me.

Phil, I've seen that bet pay less than the parlay when a couple of improbable longshots win.

There was nothing even remotely special about that Santa Anita p5 I posted. The point was that it transformed a sequence of mostly terrible non-competitive betting races with small fields and hopeless toss-outs into an advantageous situation.

The Gulfstream p6 is generally made up of several attractive betting races with large fields, often wide-open races.

The more sensible thing to do is to target the race or two in the sequence where you most have an edge.