9/8: Belmont (6th-10th); Arlington (6th-9th); LaDowns (8th-11th)

[Kasept]

With the Breeders' Cup now clear on the horizon, the transition from summer to fall starts this weekend with Belmont, Fairplex and Kentucky Downs/Turfway taking over from Saratoga, Del Mar and Ellis Park. Fun stakes sequences at Louisiana Downs and Arlington add to the action as well. Should be a fun, circuit-switching kind of afternoon. Don't forget the Presque Isle Masters at 7:30p ET as well...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Is there a better way to start the Fall Championship Meet than a state bred turf route? No! Typically fun, well matched set with many attractive prices to include..

Best Value: #4 Dual Citizen 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Carbon County 4-1 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Roaring Conquest 8-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Mr. Vantastic 20-1 7th


7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Riverdance Rock 5-1 9th
Best Value: #1 Solengo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Palace 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Dreamsgonewild 4-1 10th


8th:OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Royal Sighting 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #2 Garnet Street 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Irish Exchange 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Expression 15-1 6th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Tennis Racket 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Kathy's Kitten 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 El Corriente 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Renzo Bertoni 5-1 5th


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

SCR's of 2 faves change complexion of this..

Best Value: #7 Grey Foose 10-1 5th
Next Best: #12 How Do I Win 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Why Broadway 12-1 7th
Super Add: #6 My Man Dan 8-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 7-9-12

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lord of the Roses 2-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Pink Leninade 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 No Rules Now 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #7 No Peace at All 7-2 2nd


7th: 78th Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Pataky Kid 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1 Muppet Man 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Scissortail G 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 My Lute 3-1 5th


8th: 78th Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (DD)

More inscrutable of the 2 baby stakes with 8 of the 14 looking capable of a win..

Best Value: #5 Sweet Redemption 8-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Flying Rapunzel 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Custody 12-1 4th
Super Add: #14 Pappascat 8-1 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Wild Oration 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Fire Tricks 8-1 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Posh 10-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Age of Aquatius 9-2 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 It's Tamareno 12-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-7
7: 1-3
8: 5-6-12-14
9: 1-3-5-6-9

4x2x4x5 = 160x .50 = $80



LOUISIANA DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 34th Unbridled, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Major Marvel 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Sadie's Soldier 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Golden Yank 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Strike King 6-1 3rd


9th: 9th Sunday Silence, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Java's Wild 9-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #9 Kamchatka 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Brown Almighty 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Mr. Bandini's Band 6-1 5th


10th: 33rd Super Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd choice Bourbon Courage showed a new dimension in the West Virginia Derby and works since that placement say he may be ready for another forward move. Is as good as solid favorite Blueskiesnrainbows and twice the price. Respect Amoss immensely and Key Donation returned to previous best last time after regressing. A new jump to highest level of accomplishment yet makes him eligible for laurels. To pull out an ol' Derby Trail chestnut, Neil Drysdale doesn't 'ship on a lark' and Fly Lexis Fly may be ready for that foreshadowed aplomb..

Most Likely: #9 Bourbon Courage 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #2 Key Donation 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Blueskiesnrainbows 3-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Fly Lexis Fly 6-1 2nd


11th: 27th Happy Ticket, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Promise Me More 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Always Kitten 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #8 My Daughter's Song 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Wilhelmina 8-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-6-8-9
9: 1-7-9
10: 2-3-5-8-9
11: 6-9

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[dylbert]

LaD Super Derby stakes advisor

R3: #1 Gantry towers over this short field, single in P3 2nd, Paceless race, pinned on rail, BC Sprint hopeful?

R6: #2 Pretty Not is longshot Play of the Day. Comes back sharp off La-bred victory 6th, non-menacing 3-3/4 lengths back

R8: 5,1,6 7th,5th,4th

R9: 7,9,1,10 (exact copy of Steve's play above) 1st,3rd,2nd,5th

R10: 5,3,9,2 (same group as Steve just order of finish/preference) 7th,2nd,1st,8th

#5 Fly Lexis Fly just jumped off page when I first reviewed this race. Old school Super Derby angle, "Beware the Cali invader!" Fly Lexis Fly should enter BC Marathon. Full of run late.

R11: 6,9,8,12 (again, same runners in almost same order) 1st,4th,7th

Wishing everyone success today! As I shared on Facebook, Super Derby Day is like Christmas for me. One day each year that LaD gets first class racing.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

With the Breeders' Cup now clear on the horizon, the transition from summer to fall starts this weekend with Belmont, Fairplex and Kentucky Downs/Turfway taking over from Saratoga, Del Mar and Ellis Park. Fun stakes sequences at Louisiana Downs and Arlington add to the action as well. Should be a fun, circuit-switching kind of afternoon. Don't forget the Presque Isle Masters at 7:30p ET as well...


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Is there a better way to start the Fall Championship Meet than a state bred turf route? No! Typically fun, well matched set with many attractive prices to include..

Most Likely: #13 (AE) Scavezzato 8-1 ** if in
Best Value: #4 Dual Citizen 15-1
Next Best: #1 Carbon County 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Roaring Conquest 8-1
Super Add: #10 Mr. Vantastic 20-1


7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Like the race above, dotted with juicy numbers..

Most Likely: #5 Riverdance Rock 5-1
Best Value: #11 Call Up the Chief 15-1
Next Best: #2 Palace 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Solengo 10-1
Super Add: #7 Dreamsgonewild 4-1


8th:OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Royal Sighting 3-1
Best Value: #2 Garnet Street 10-1
Next Best: #5 Irish Exchange 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Expression 15-1


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Tennis Racket 10-1
Next Best: #7 Kathy's Kitten 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 El Corriente 10-1
Super Add: #2 Renzo Bertoni 5-1


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Nothing clever here..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Classic R and B 2-1
Next Best: #2 Goodtime Boy 3-1
Exotics Use: #12 How Do I Win 4-1
Super Add: #6 My Man Dan 8-1


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5-7-9-11
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-7
10: 1-2

6x4x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96



ARLINGTON PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lord of the Roses 2-1
Next Best: #5 Pink Leninade 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 No Rules Now 4-1
Super Add: #7 No Peace at All 7-2


7th: 78th Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Pataky Kid 9-2
Next Best: #1 Muppet Man 2-1
Best Value: #7 Scissortail G 15-1
Exotics Use: #8 My Lute 3-1


8th: 78th Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (DD)

More inscrutable of the 2 baby stakes with 8 of the 14 looking capable of a win..

Best Value: #5 Sweet Redemption 8-1
Next Best: #12 Flying Rapunzel 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Custody 12-1
Super Add: #14 Pappascat 8-1


9th: ALW/N1X, 5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)

Wild finish to day and I can't help but tab Jelly Cable. Though I follow her because I was involved in her naming, she is fully capable here and a square price..

Most Likely: #11 Jelly Cable 8-1
Best Value: #9 Wild Oration 10-1
Next Best: #7 Donate 8-1
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Posh 10-1
Hi-5 Play: #1 Fire Tricks 8-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-3
8: 5-6-12-14
9: 1-5-7-9-10-11

3x2x4x6 = 144x .50 = $72



LOUISIANA DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 34th Unbridled, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Major Marvel 5-2
Best Value: #5 Sadie's Soldier 6-1
Next Best: #9 Golden Yank 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Strike King 6-1


9th: 9th Sunday Silence, 2yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Java's Wild 9-2
Best Value: #9 Kamchatka 6-1
Next Best: #1 Brown Almighty 8-5
Exotics Use: #10 Mr. Bandini's Band 6-1


10th: 33rd Super Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd choice Bourbon Courage showed a new dimension in the West Virginia Derby and works since that placement say he may be ready for another forward move. Is as good as solid favorite Blueskiesnrainbows and twice the price. Respect Amoss immensely and Key Donation returned to previous best last time after regressing. A new jump to highest level of accomplishment yet makes him eligible for laurels. To pull out an ol' Derby Trail chestnut, Neil Drysdale doesn't 'ship on a lark' and Fly Lexis Fly may be ready for that foreshadowed aplomb..

Most Likely: #9 Bourbon Courage 3-1
Best Value: #2 Key Donation 12-1
Next Best: #3 Blueskiesnrainbows 3-2
Exotics Use: #5 Fly Lexis Fly 6-1


11th: 27th Happy Ticket, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Promise Me More 3-1
Next Best: #6 Always Kitten 7-2
Best Value: #8 My Daughter's Song 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Incredible Journey 4-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-6-8-9
9: 1-7-9
10: 2-3-5-8-9
11: 6-9

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

Steve your SPA selections were the roughiest patch I have ever seen you go thru, over a 6100 lose for the meet if you played ONLY your posted plays OOCH.. Anyways I am sure you recouped much of that nightmare on exactas and tris which you obviously cant post for every race.. Best of Luck on the Championship meet that was some disaster at the SPA.

[Alabama Stakes]

it seemed like he gave out a ton of big price winners to me......the whole world doesn't play horizontally you know.

I don't think Freddy meant any ill will whatsoever with his comment.

It's actually a reality check on how tough the game can be at times.

And yes, Steve recovered nicely with some exotic hits but those vary. The success you have with another guys selections can vary greatly compared to what they're playing. And that really comes down to patience and proper bankroll management.

Obviously you want to take heed of his selections when he's throwing some prices underneath. He should be commended for posting selections the whole meet. That is incredible dedication.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

AP SCR/CHG'S

LaD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve your SPA selections were the roughiest patch I have ever seen you go thru, over a 6100 lose for the meet if you played ONLY your posted plays OOCH.. Anyways I am sure you recouped much of that nightmare on exactas and tris which you obviously cant post for every race.. Best of Luck on the Championship meet that was some disaster at the SPA.

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

I'm OK with the .50. I was live to 4 horses in one spot for $1,200-$2,500 and on another occasion to a couple horses for $3,000. They didn't get it done. So be it. Then there were another 6-8 misses that were harrowing for smaller but real money. As we talked about 10 days in, adjustments needed to be made for more DD & P3 play and that went a long way towards balancing the ledger. I personally played my old fashioned Win and Exacta backwheels to positive effect. The biggest challenge at Saratoga was that there were unendingly large fields with difficult equations. The .50 increment was still OK, but you had to string the 4 winners together!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yup.. As discussed extensively on radio, TV and here for the last 6 weeks, P4's were particularly hard to come by. Played from behind the whole meet.

I was trying to be supportive. When you bet as much and as often as you do daily on EVERY pick 4 and pick 6 regardless of how tough the sequence seems to be it is truly a testiment to your amazing handicapping, hard work, and knowledge of the game that your bankroll stays so solid. As I said I have followed you for years and NEVER have I never clocked you having such a fruitless meet -6121 let's just say the SPA was ice cold.. I havent forgetten that 14 dime pik 6 you scooped not that long ago, nor has anyone else!!

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by jms62

Steve are you still a fan of the .50 P4's. A couple years ago 2 or 3 P4's would carry someone for the meet. Not any longer.

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

They just had your basic $9,500 P4 (.50) at Belmont...

BEL $40,700 C/O SUNDAY

[ADJMK]

Belmont results today make the Spa look formful. Four super payouts > $24,000 for a $1. Sheez hit one of those even for .10 and you had a pretty good afternoon.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Just shows how hard it is to string 4 races together especially at the Spa when the sequences include maiden races with the majority first timers or those dreaded 5.5f turf sprints. I thought that when .50 P4's became available it would kill the payoffs and be a lot easier to hit. Experience has shown that is not the case and the extra coverage you can get for .50 still doesn't help you include the improbable winners.

Big DD's like pointman plays seems to be the ticket 1x2 for 20 bucks