Wise Dan

[Calzone Lord]

Reportedly a 117 Beyer in his comeback race yesterday.

A spectacularly high figure for a synthetic route.

[AlreadyHome]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Reportedly a 117 Beyer in his comeback race yesterday.

A spectacularly high figure for a synthetic route.

wow what a performance, i saw the replay

He beat M One Rifle as the top synthetic beyer. Big Feat!

[cmorioles]

Bogus Beyer, and you know better CL.

[Alabama Stakes]

he'll run on anything, that rascal.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Bogus Beyer, and you know better CL.

The whole day was really odd because races were totally fracturing like you see on an extremely wet dirt track. I'm pretty sure it rained...but you don't always get that effect on a wet synthetic track either.

The last five races of the day on poly where all won by margins of 4.75 lengths to 10.25 lengths. You also had an extremely speed favoring track. Here is how the leader after just a 1/4 mile performed in each race:


1st race: 2nd by a nose at 21/1 odds. Ran a 69 Beyer (last four figures all in the 43-to-56 range)

2nd race: 3rd by 3 at 25/1 odds. Ran a 53 Beyer (last four figures all in the 11-to-44 range)

3rd race: 1st by 4.75 lengths and paid $8.60 to win. Ran a 77 Beyer (Improved 19 points from a 58 last time out and matched career top)

4th race: 1st by 5.75 lengths and paid $10.00 Ran a 92 Beyer (last two figures were 70 and 74)

5th race: Turf

6th race: 1st by 9.5 lengths and paid $9.80 to win. Ran a 68 Beyer. (New career top by 21 full points. Ran a 41 and 47 in other two starts)

7th race: Turf

8th race: Wise Dan Race

9th race: 1st by 4.75 lengths after setting a wicked fast pace for the level and pays $19.00 to win. New career top Beyer of 85 after running figures of 60, 73, and 38 in his last 3 races.


I didn't bother doing figures for this day ... but this is the kind of day and track conditions where horses can get super inflated figures. As you can see, every horse who made the lead (including the winner of the last who set killer fractions) all ran crazy high figs for their ability.

[Kasept]

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I don't have the specific parallel time charts that Beyer uses for Keeneland --so I don't know if he does anything special with 9f races VS 8.5f races at KEE -- but the Wise Dan race does appears to be "cut loose" with the 8.5 furlong race run 30 minutes later based on how he has handled this distance relationship in the past.

Nine points was added to the Wise Dan race for some reason. A 108 would have fit the Beyer variant based on the Beyer relationship between 8.5f and 9f races at Keeneland in the other days I've looked at.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

Obviously 117 is open lengths faster than any Beyer ever published in synthetic route racing ... it's a very historical figure that will stand the test of time. However, it was earned over an extremely speed biased race track and it appears to have been cut loose with 9 points added to it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I checked my PM's and CJ actually sent me his analysis of it.

Here is a quick rundown of the routes for the day. These are the figures for the day after I adjust them for the pace variant, but not the overall variant. Parentheses are for the winner, the others for the leader.


( 59 73 92) 59 73 92 Race 3
( 135 135 134) 135 135 134 Race 8
( 126 121 107) 126 121 107 Race 9

Based on the those and using that turf formula I sent you for the slow paced race (on synthetics, I still give horses credit for running too fast early like the horse in the 9th), the raw performance figure for the winner of the three races would be:

Race 3, 106
Race 8, 134
Race 9, 113

Lets use what figures Beyer gave as the projection and look at the overall variant:

Race 3, 106 - 77 = 29
Race 8, 134 - 117 = 17
Race 9, 113 - 85 = 28

Clearly, the Wise Dan race doesn't fit. If you use a 28 based on the other two races, he actually gets a 106. That certainly makes a lot more sense than a 117. He clearly didn't understand that the final times of races 3 and 9 were impacted as much by pace as they were by track speed. You might also have noticed he split the 9th from the other two based on speed figures.

I actually projected the cheaper races a tad higher than he did and settled on a variant of 27 if I was using the Beyer scale, so that is where the 107 came from. I'll get into that more this week. I also didn't project a 117 for Wise Dan of course.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

Regarding which is more implausible -- a 117 for Wise Dan or a 98 for Big Blue Kitten ... I have to disagree strongly and say the 117.

A 117 Beyer in a synthetic route is a figure I never believed I'd see. It's Babe Ruth type stuff.

Big Blue Kitten is a lightly raced horse (only 8 career starts) who was a Grade 2 stakes winner on turf at age 3 and has all better than looked races this year.




This was straight from my trip notes from Big Blue Kitten's 2012 comeback race ...



After that, he catches a race where he's taken back behind a 51 flat pace set by Get Stormy ... and he catches Wise Dan on a hardcore speed bias in his next two. He's a respectable horse who could easily win a Graded Stakes race next time out. He's a safer bet to run a 98 than Wise Dan is a 117...however, I'd say Wise Dan should have got a 108 and BBK an 89.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I checked my PM's and CJ actually sent me his analysis of it.

Why would you post a PM? If CJ wished it public he would have shown the world.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why would you post a PM? If CJ wished it public he would have shown the world.

I only posted the part of the PM that included his thought process and analysis of the figure.

I can't imagine why he'd care since he basically posted the same exact thing on Pace Advantage in a little less detail.

[cmorioles]

It is fine.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not entering the discussion, mostly because I have no idea about figures at Keeneland, but as I said on another board, I spoke to Beyer and he stands behind the number. He used the same variant for the entire card, save projecting the 3rd race due to the slow pace and faster final fractions, and felt that since he hadn't been splitting sprint and route variants during the meet, there seemed no reason to do it for this day.

I'm just the messenger.

[freddymo]

Beyer can always revise his figure in the future when the fields future races do not support the 117.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not entering the discussion, mostly because I have no idea about figures at Keeneland, but as I said on another board, I spoke to Beyer and he stands behind the number. He used the same variant for the entire card, save projecting the 3rd race due to the slow pace and faster final fractions, and felt that since he hadn't been splitting sprint and route variants during the meet, there seemed no reason to do it for this day.

I'm just the messenger.

I'm far from an authority on the Beyer process for his figs at Keeneland as well.

Obviously, horses who made the lead ran impossibly well all day from a Beyer figure standpoint and a 117 for Wise Dan isn't any more eye-popping than the Beyer figure every pacesetter on that card ran relative to prior ability.

However...looking at the last two routes this day VS Blue Grass Stakes day... what I'm seeing is not adding up.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

A day like that I'm just hunting for a few speeds to play against -- and a few closers who also didn't get pace and have a right to improve next time. But man, 117 in a synthetic route will really stand the test of time if he sticks by it.

[pucknut]

i looked at kittens pp he seemed to be sitting on a big one
love the ramseys love brown this horse was ready and is one to watch in the future
track bias or not his run and dan's were impressive
hope to see the wise one at saratoga later this year

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm far from an authority on the Beyer process for his figs at Keeneland as well.

Obviously, horses who made the lead ran impossibly well all day from a Beyer figure standpoint and a 117 for Wise Dan isn't any more eye-popping than the Beyer figure every pacesetter on that card ran relative to prior ability.

However...looking at the last two routes this day VS Blue Grass Stakes day... what I'm seeing is not adding up.



A day like that I'm just hunting for a few speeds to play against -- and a few closers who also didn't get pace and have a right to improve next time. But man, 117 in a synthetic route will really stand the test of time if he sticks by it.

I did forget about how extreme the adjustment to the charts Beyer made could be. The 117 would have been about a 112 on the old scale. Using that, the variants of the 8th and 9th would have been only two points apart at most. There was no real split. I still don't agree with the 117, but not by as much as I thought initially. The biggest reason is I don't agree is the way he handled the synthetic adjustment.

I'm going with a 109 and moving on.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I did forget about how extreme the adjustment to the charts Beyer made could be.

I'm not familar with the new synthetic chart they're using...but here is what was confusing me yesterday.

Blue Grass day was April 14th and Bel Ali day April 22nd. Here are the elapsed times in DRF Formulator based on beaten length adjustments:






Eye of the Leopard and Heavy Breathing both ran a final time of 1:49.39 based on BLA. According to Trakus -- Heavy Breathing's final time was 0.06 seconds faster than Eye Of The Leopards.

Eye of the Leopard's Beyer is an 88 and Heavy Breathing's Beyer is an 83. This indicates the track was 5 points faster on Blue Grass day.

Another way to look at it is Big Blue Kitten got a 98 Beyer for running 1:48.42 and Dullahan got a 98 Beyer for running 1:47.94. Formulator had Dullahan running 0.48 seconds faster -- Trakus had Dullahan running 0.50 seconds faster ... thus, the track was 0.50 faster on Blue Grass Day because they both got 98 Beyers.








Current Design runs 1:44.07 on Blue Grass day. Zokarian runs 1:43.95 in the 9th race on Ben Ali day. Formulator has Zokarian running 0.12 seconds faster. Trakus has Zokarian running 0.18 seconds faster than Current Design.

Zokarian recieved a Beyer of 76 and Current Design (who ran 0.12-to-0.18 slower) a Beyer of 79.

That would indicate the track is 4 points faster on Ben Ali day.


You're dealing with all fairly similarly paced races here.

If the 8th and 9th race on Ben Ali day are of the same variant...I guess the Blue Grass Stakes was cut loose from all the other poly rotues on April 14th.

Was the Blue Grass really a 107 and cut loose to a 98? If not, how could the track be 5 points faster at 9fs on Blue Grass day and 4 points faster at 8.5 on Ben Ali day?

If I had the Parallel time charts for Keeneland that they're using I'd know this. That was basically the confusing part to me.

[cmorioles]

I didn't bother trying to figure out the new speed chart. I was able to figure it out this way. I just convert what the new Beyer is to what it would have been old style, and use the old chart.

old beyer = ((beyer - 70) * (40.0 / 45.0) + 70);

So above, for Wise Dan it is 112 as an example.

Using that formula, for Sunday, we had this:
R3 Raw Beyer, 92, Old Beyer, 76, variant 16
R8 Raw Beyer, 134, Old Beyer, 112, variant 22
R9 Raw Beyer, 107, Old Beyer, 83, variant 24

I'm sure my formula isn't perfect, but good enough. This is why Beyer says he only broke out the 3rd race.

Here is Blue Grass day:

R1 Raw Beyer, 87, Old Beyer, 66, variant 21
R4 Raw Beyer, 103, Old Beyer, 82, variant 21
R6 Raw Beyer, 102, Old Beyer, 82, variant 20
R7 Raw Beyer, 101, Old Beyer, 81, variant 20
R11 Raw Beyer, 122, Old Beyer, 95, variant 27

The race that was broken out was the Blue Grass by about 5 points.

For what it is worth, I have Dullahan faster than Beyer because I didn't agree.