2/8: Aqueduct ($30k C/O); Gulfstream (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

Got lucky enough Super Bowl Sunday to catch Santa Anita double carryover for modest $2,200 ($1,900 + 9 consos). Parlay was half that number, so return was fine. The best feature of getting through the sequence was the three hours it devoured of the wait for gametime. Happy to hear that a few people came along or at least used first leg top tab Seeking Solace, $16.60 and the key to hitting the otherwise chalky set. $30k carry on a rather fun six pack at Aqueduct today and even though they are off the turf at Gulfstream, the P5 and P4 may be worth playing. I'll wait for the scratches at GP before forging thoughts.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$30k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Guyana Star Dweej 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bird Tale 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Quiet Man 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Super Add: #6 War Hitch 5-2 5th


5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Chief Wild Eagle drops and cuts back. Return to November N2L effort at Philly beats this group by half dozen lengths..

Most Likely: #5 Chief Wild Eagle 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Howie and the Cat 20-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Mark It Man 7-2 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Kid Wando 3-1 3rd


6th: NY-$25k OC/C, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group and there is every opportunity for favorites Bold Deed and Wise Stop to drill each other into submission. At that point, cutback Precious Metal and consistant Coaltown Legend -- both 6-1 ML items -- become interesting stalking and closing. Won Great Classic and Premium Wine are first off claims and have positives. Jupiter Trio (10-1) is going to be ignored and is certainly employable with return to mud win 2 back..

Best Value: #4 Precious Metal 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Won Great Classic 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Coaltown Legend 6-1 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #8 Jupiter Trio 10-1 3rd


7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Will be scary singling Worth a Buck who just has no interest in hitting the wire first, but he has no excuse not beating these..

Most Likely: #9 Worth a Buck 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #6 Purge Bird 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Gramercy 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Jazzbo 12-1 4th


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Another good group..

Most Likely: #8 Star of New York 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #7 Cribnote 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Cosmic King 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Crushing 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (8-7) Paid $13.80
$1 Trifecta (8-7-6) Paid $36.75
$1 Superfecta (8-7-6-3) Paid $208.00


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m (Super)

Zodiac Girl will be singled on most tickets, but remember that bad horses win bad races..

Most Likely: #6 Zodiac Girl 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Marie's Babe 10-1
Next Best: #3 Quite a Feat 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sundae's a Meese 20-1


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3-5-6
5: 5
6: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8
7: 9
8: 6-7-8
9: 6

4x1x7x1x3x1 = 84 x $2 = $168

$2 Pick 6 (5/8/3/7,9/8,9/6,9) Paid $23.40 (5OF6)


<$25 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8
7: 9
8: 6-7-8
9: 6

7x1x3x1 = $21

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/7,9/8,9/6,9) Paid $25.00



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P5, P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sting Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #10 Fancy Runner 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Gulf Ruckus 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Sweetlandofliberty 5-1 8th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Al Mudeer 5th
Next Best: #3 Heavy Breathing WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Cybertron 4th


9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cloudwatcher 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Martini 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Curahee Assault 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Seaside Escape 8-1 5th


10th: OC/N1X, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dancing Solo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Hearts of Red 10-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #5 SCR


11th: MDN CLM-$35k, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #15 Purest Form 15-1 WON ($39.00)
Next Best: #13 Minestrone 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Old Puerto 15-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Slinger 12-1 7th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 4-7-9-10-12
8: 3-4
9: 4-8-9
10: 6
11: 4-9-11-13-15

5x2x3x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-4-10
9: 1-4-5-6-8-9
10: 6
11: 4-9-11-13-15

3x6x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

Good to see you doing Aqu,a track that I have problems with.

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

Gulfstream:

Sloppy/Off turf

EARLY scratches:

3rd 8
4th 1,2,6
6th 1,3,5,7,9,10,15
7th 13-16
8th 2,5,7,9
10th 4,8,9
11th 1,2,3,6,10,14

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[fantini33]

Steve, I realize that the Rainbow 6 is a foolish bet on a regular basis, but is today not a decent day to take a swing. May not take more than 3-4 irregular results. Here is my logic. You're playing against others here, trying to be the only ticket standing at the end. By virtue of it being a Wednesday you are automatically up against the fewest opposing tickets all week. With 4 OFF THE TURF races lots of people that may normally play won't even bother 'capping meaning you are up against even less than a normal Wednesday. I would think that today may end up being one of the smallest days at Gulfstream all year, at least handle-wise. With the opposition passing on today, why not give it a spin.

Does this make sense or am I just looking for an excuse to play an otherwise decimated racecard?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Steve, I realize that the Rainbow 6 is a foolish bet on a regular basis, but is today not a decent day to take a swing. May not take more than 3-4 irregular results. Here is my logic. You're playing against others here, trying to be the only ticket standing at the end. By virtue of it being a Wednesday you are automatically up against the fewest opposing tickets all week. With 4 OFF THE TURF races lots of people that may normally play won't even bother 'capping meaning you are up against even less than a normal Wednesday. I would think that today may end up being one of the smallest days at Gulfstream all year, at least handle-wise. With the opposition passing on today, why not give it a spin.

Does this make sense or am I just looking for an excuse to play an otherwise decimated racecard?

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/hotlines

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by GPK

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/hotlines

I know.....still reeling a bit from the Patriots loss and me having a $400 7 5 square that would have returned big beans if the last few minutes have gone a tad differently.

Hotline on speed dial.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by fantini33

I know.....still reeling a bit from the Patriots loss and me having a $400 7 5 square that would have returned big beans if the last few minutes have gone a tad differently.

Hotline on speed dial.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Steve, I realize that the Rainbow 6 is a foolish bet on a regular basis, but is today not a decent day to take a swing. May not take more than 3-4 irregular results. Here is my logic. You're playing against others here, trying to be the only ticket standing at the end. By virtue of it being a Wednesday you are automatically up against the fewest opposing tickets all week. With 4 OFF THE TURF races lots of people that may normally play won't even bother 'capping meaning you are up against even less than a normal Wednesday. I would think that today may end up being one of the smallest days at Gulfstream all year, at least handle-wise. With the opposition passing on today, why not give it a spin.

Does this make sense or am I just looking for an excuse to play an otherwise decimated racecard?

It may be... I'm not convinced that any time other than mandatory payout day is the right time. Races 8, 9 and 10 look tight and clear, so there's no mystery there... 7 has a slight chance for a random winner and 11 a good chance someone other than the top choices. Haven't looked at R6.

You need at least 2 big prices and typically 2 mid-priced shots to clear the decks for a unique winner. I'm playing a P5 today between my published $72 play and $90 if I add a horse in the 7th. As I've said on air, there unique ticket plays have me a tad baffled as to their playability.

G/L whatever you do!

[Kasept]

Not that 2-1 would have been much better than Quiet Man's 8-5, but Jose Rodriguez gave Guyana Star Dweej no chance to win..

I like how I'm reminded multiple times a week the incompetence of Kelly Breen.

Close shop on the rail for the inner? Kelly is your man.

I love losing to way overbet chalk by a nose. Way to go Aqueduct. Good card today.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Steve, I realize that the Rainbow 6 is a foolish bet on a regular basis, but is today not a decent day to take a swing. May not take more than 3-4 irregular results. Here is my logic. You're playing against others here, trying to be the only ticket standing at the end. By virtue of it being a Wednesday you are automatically up against the fewest opposing tickets all week. With 4 OFF THE TURF races lots of people that may normally play won't even bother 'capping meaning you are up against even less than a normal Wednesday. I would think that today may end up being one of the smallest days at Gulfstream all year, at least handle-wise. With the opposition passing on today, why not give it a spin.

Does this make sense or am I just looking for an excuse to play an otherwise decimated racecard?

Looks like 7 8 9 11 15 take the whole pot of $237,765. Sequence so far was $7.60 $5.40 $6.20 $84.40 $10.20. Two favorites, two second choices, one bomb.

I think I may have had the right idea.

[fantini33]

Blah blah ...chicken dinner. Whole pot......

[pointman]

Nice call in the last at Gulfstream, Steve!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Looks like 7 8 9 11 15 take the whole pot of $237,765. Sequence so far was $7.60 $5.40 $6.20 $84.40 $10.20. Two favorites, two second choices, one bomb.

I think I may have had the right idea.

You had the right idea but I can't imagine using Who is Camille in that 9th race with anything but an 'all'.. Apparently the ticket was bought in Vegas.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Nice call in the last at Gulfstream, Steve!

Thanks Nick. Was a nice consolation for a day that was full of potential and some OK opportunities. Hope everybody got something along the way..

[dagolfer33]

I had $10WP in the last as well Steve, action money for the week!!

Thanks Steve. Your cappin has been very good lately, something huge is coming soon.