Your Personal Derby Dozen

[smartbid09]

Today's Holy Bull officially starts the 2011 Kentucky Derby season. For most horse fans this is the most exciting time of the year. And with what seems to be a fairly talented crop of 3-year-old's there is a lot to look forward to.

I think us DerbyTrailers are very astute horseman and I thought it would be fun to list our own personal Derby Dozen.

Hasken's Derby Dozen comes out this week and it should be fun to see how are Derby Dozen's stack up against his. (Although I know Haskin has said his Derby Dozen list will inlude some pretty obscure horses this year.)

If you feel like participating I'd love to see what horses you'd place on your own Derby Dozen list

[smartbid09]

Here's My Derby Dozen

1. Uncle Mo - Distance may be a problem for this talented son of Indian Charlie. But if Uncle Mo is able to move forward from his 2-year-old form and improve with distance than the sky's the limit for this talented 3-year-old. With comparisons to such all time greats as Seattle Slew who knows this colt just may be one of the ones.

2. To Honor and Serve - With a great pedigree and a string of impressive performances To Honor and Serve easily finds his way onto the second spot in most Derby Dozen lists. I need to see him run against a more talented field though in order to get a better feel for his talents.

3. Comma To The Top - The West Coasts top derby contender. Comma To The Top has a great 2-year-old campaign behind him and seemed very impressive in his last start. I

4. The Factor - Bob Baffert is very high on this colt. If The Factor can rate who knows what kind of horse he will be. Extremely fast, The Factor already broke a track record at the beautiful Santa Anita Race Course. I will have to see more from this colt before I can draw any conclusions but I can not over look a derby hopeful trained by Bob Baffert.

5. Dialed In - This Nick Zito trained son of Mineshaft looked very impressive today in winning the Holy Bull stakes. In only his second start Dialed In made up a huge amount of ground and won under a hand ride.

6. Boys at Tosconova - Don't like that he missed the Holy Bull Stakes but Dutrow is high on him and the talent is obvious. His distance is a question but perhaps he'll be able to overcome that. If it weren't for Uncle Mo this colt would undoubtedly be the talk of the racing world.

7. Brethren - This half brother to Super Saver has been refered to as the second best three-year-old in Todd Pletchers barn by Todd Pletcher himself. Can't wait to see more from him.

---after my top 7 horses there is a slew of horses I could have used to fill out the remaining 5 slots-----

8. Washington’s Rules - This horse is getting some major buzz. Haskin likes him and his trainer McPeek is very high on him.

9 Stay Thirsty - I wasn't very impressed with his performance in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, but I am still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he will improve in form as a three-year-old. I love his pedigree and I want to see him race as a three-year-old before I toss him off my derby dozen list.

10 Casper’s Touch - I'll give Steve Haskin the benefit of the doubt. If this horse is good enough to find it's way onto Haskin's early Derby Dozen I'll give him a spot on mine.

11. Rouge Romance

12. Astrology

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

Today's Holy Bull officially starts the 2011 Kentucky Derby season. For most horse fans this is the most exciting time of the year. And with what seems to be a fairly talented crop of 3-year-old's there is a lot to look forward to.

I think us DerbyTrailers are very astute horseman and I thought it would be fun to list our own personal Derby Dozen.

Hasken's Derby Dozen comes out this week and it should be fun to see how are Derby Dozen's stack up against his. (Although I know Haskin has said his Derby Dozen list will inlude some pretty obscure horses this year.)

If you feel like participating I'd love to see what horses you'd place on your own Derby Dozen list.

Here's mine:

1. Uncle Mo - Distance may be a problem for this talented son of Indian Charlie. But if Uncle Mo is able to move forward from his 2-year-old form and improve with distance than the sky's the limit for this talented 3-year-old. With comparisons to such all time greats as Seattle Slew who knows this colt just may be one of the ones.

2. To Honor and Serve - With a great pedigree and a string of impressive performances To Honor and Serve easily finds his way onto the second spot in most Derby Dozen lists. I need to see him run against a more talented field though in order to get a better feel for his talents.

3. Comma To The Top - The West Coasts top derby contender. Comma To The Top has a great 2-year-old campaign behind him and seemed very impressive in his last start. I

4. The Factor - Bob Baffert is very high on this colt. If The Factor can rate who knows what kind of horse he will be. Extremely fast, The Factor already broke a track record at the beautiful Santa Anita Race Course. I will have to see more from this colt before I can draw any conclusions but I can not over look a derby hopeful trained by Bob Baffert.

5. Dialed In - This Nick Zito trained son of Mineshaft looked very impressive today in winning the Holy Bull stakes. In only his second start Dialed In made up a huge amount of ground and won under a hand ride.

6. Boys at Tosconova - Don't like that he missed the Holy Bull Stakes but Dutrow is high on him and the talent is obvious. His distance is a question but perhaps he'll be able to overcome that. If it weren't for Uncle Mo this colt would undoubtedly be the talk of the racing world.

7. Brethren - This half brother to Super Saver has been refered to as the second best three-year-old in Todd Pletchers barn by Todd Pletcher himself. Can't wait to see more from him.

8. Washington’s Rules - This horse is getting some major buzz. Haskin likes him and his trainer McPeek is very high on him.

9 Stay Thirsty - I wasn't very impressed with his performance in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, but I am still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he will improve in form as a three-year-old. I love his pedigree and I want to see him race as a three-year-old before I toss him off my derby dozen list.

10 Casper’s Touch - I'll give Steve Haskin the benefit of the doubt. If this horse is good enough to find it's way onto Haskin's early Derby Dozen I'll give him a spot on mine.

11. Rouge Romance

12. Astrology

Pletcher is quoted as saying that about Bretheren? I don't recall that - do you have a link?

I think your list is pretty fair. I would have Dialed In probably under THAS - who is still my Derby horse (I'll put him tied with Uncle Mo because I really think Uncle Mo will go on). Washington Rules is, I think, being highly overrated by some and I'm not sure how far the Factor wants to go (then again, everytime I question whether a horse wants to run that far, he inevitably has no problems). Stay Thirsty was not done any favors by Todd when he ran him in the BC off of the Hopeful - a sprint, 2 months before the race. I know for all of last year that ST was considered the 2nd best in that barn, surprisingly so given they thought he'd be a much better 3 year old. Everyone has a horse they think of as a dark horse on their Derby lists and he's mine.

Casper's Touch seems to be the wise guy horse and I've never been an Astrology fan even after he beat THAS.

Good stuff - I need to put together my list now. This is a very talented crop.....and the big guns from last year haven't even run yet.

[smartbid09]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Pletcher is quoted as saying that about Bretheren? I don't recall that - do you have a link?

I think your list is pretty fair. I would have Dialed In probably under THAS - who is still my Derby horse (I'll put him tied with Uncle Mo because I really think Uncle Mo will go on). Washington Rules is, I think, being highly overrated by some and I'm not sure how far the Factor wants to go (then again, everytime I question whether a horse wants to run that far, he inevitably has no problems). Stay Thirsty was not done any favors by Todd when he ran him in the BC off of the Hopeful - a sprint, 2 months before the race. I know for all of last year that ST was considered the 2nd best in that barn, surprisingly so given they thought he'd be a much better 3 year old. Everyone has a horse they think of as a dark horse on their Derby lists and he's mine.

Casper's Touch seems to be the wise guy horse and I've never been an Astrology fan even after he beat THAS.

Good stuff - I need to put together my list now. This is a very talented crop.....and the big guns from last year haven't even run yet.

Hey, thanks for the feedback. I will try to find the Bretheren quote. If I do I will def. post it.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

Hey, thanks for the feedback. I will try to find the Bretheren quote. If I do I will def. post it.

Thanks! Either way, Todd is in good shape - but you can never have too many Derby horses. I'm definitely biased, I admit it, lol.

These types of lists are a lot of fun because many times we're putting horses on them based on potential, not performance. Some will fall off due to not living up to expectations and some will be added because they pleasantly surprise. FYI - Washington Rules finished 2nd in August to Stay Thirsty, so if he turns into a good horse, I won't exactly be upset. It's kind of fun to put horses on the list that no one else is high on. I mean, if you're wrong, no one will care, but if you're right, you can crow about it.

I didn't see the race, but Machen seems like he was impressive today at the Fair Grounds.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I didn't see the race, but Machen seems like he was impressive today at the Fair Grounds.

The field he beat was a special kind of pathetic.

Theriot - probably under instruction to do so - rode a miserable race but won by 5 lengths anyway.

He owned a serious pace advantage - and should have been able to win that race by 15 or more if he used it.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The field he beat was a special kind of pathetic.

Theriot - probably under instruction to do so - rode a miserable race but won by 5 lengths anyway.

He owned a serious pace advantage - and should have been able to win that race by 15 or more if he used it.

Yes it was..........I didn't want to say that, though. I hate to blame a horse for beating not great stock when they can't help who they run against at this point... just watch, though. When the lists are updated, he will be in the top 5 or 6 in most.

How much stock do you put into the fact that Mucho Macho Man didn't run all that well today? Did he flatter THAS? Not particularly, but I saw someone make this comment on another board - the implication being that THASmay not deserve his high ranking on most lists. Well I guess we'll find out soon enough, but IMO since those races were months ago - I don't really think it means anything, esp. since you'd think THAS has developed and is a better horse than he was last year. Bretheren is high on lists and the horse he beat in the CD allowance, Justin Phillip, ran last in the Lecomte.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The horse (Machen) has had two slowish starts in both races now.

Simply getting the horse to break well - using his pace advantage - and winning by a pole would have been my idea of a good prep.

Instead - they let him snooze in the pre-race - grab hold of him almost the instant the gates open - take him back behind slugs - get his face dirty a little - split horses and finish up strong like a workout.

Trainers sure do love the latter method.

I don't think Mucho Macho Man's race is kind of real tell in regard to To Honor and Serve. A lot too much gets made of that stuff.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The horse (Machen) has had two slowish starts in both races now.

Simply getting the horse to break well - using his pace advantage - and winning by a pole would have been my idea of a good prep.

Instead - they let him snooze in the pre-race - grab hold of him almost the instant the gates open - take him back behind slugs - get his face dirty a little - split horses and finish up strong like a workout.

Trainers sure do love the latter method.

I don't think Mucho Macho Man's race is kind of real tell in regard to To Honor and Serve. A lot too much gets made of that stuff.

Maybe they think getting dirt in one's face is a good way to prep for the Derby; now they can say that he overcame trouble.

[my miss storm cat]

I don't have a list.

Flashpoint, Indian Winter, Albergatti , Tiz Blessed, Alternation, Break Up the Game and The Factor are the main guys I'm keeping an eye on at this early point in time.

[my miss storm cat]

Forgot to mention when I do have an actual list in a month or so? You might wanna be sure to cross all the names off of your list.

That's how good I am at early Derby picks.

[smartbid09]

Originally Posted by Cardus

If you need to get a better feel for To Honor and Serve, then how is he number two on your list?

Why is To Honor and Serve second on my list if I "need to get a better feel for him"?

In recent years the horses who have won the Remsen have not even made it into the Derby Starting gate. This along with the fact that I was not overly impressed by THAS Remsen performance make me need to get a better feel for him.

I thought the Remsen Stakes didn't really shape up into much of a race. I thought it was clear THAS was the best horse but it didn't seem like such a impress win. At least to me. It's fine to disagree.

So with all this the reason I put him at #2 on my list is that the astute horseman I know believe THAS is the clear 2nd best horse - right behind Uncle Mo.

I am not totally sold yet on that opinion, but if these knowing horseman say THAS is the second best colt right now than I have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt until I have evidence to back up my opinion.

[randallscott35]

Mine starts and ends with Sweet Ducky

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I don't have a list.

Flashpoint, Indian Winter, Albergatti , Tiz Blessed, Alternation, Break Up the Game and The Factor are the main guys I'm keeping an eye on at this early point in time.

Break up the Game is a nice colt even though he hasn't won yet........I'm looking forward to his next race at a mile or 1 1/16

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Mine starts and ends with Sweet Ducky

Which one do you like him for? Iowa or West Virginia?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Which one do you like him for? Iowa or West Virginia?

Excellent question. Which is worth more?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Excellent question. Which is worth more?

WV I think and Breen has never been afraid to ship around.

Sweet Ducky gave it his all and Pants on Fire came close but they could not break Breen's now 0-29 streak in graded stakes races on dirt at a mile or more.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

WV I think and Breen has never been afraid to ship around.

Sweet Ducky gave it his all and Pants on Fire came close but they could not break Breen's now 0-29 streak in graded stakes races on dirt at a mile or more.

If you had the Hall's money you wouldn't be afraid to ship either....Anyway, I think he is a cinch in WV.

[smartbid09]

I think Tapizar is also a horse that deserves some respect. He is #13 on my list now but if he wins another race he'll move up on my list dramatically.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

I think Tapizar is also a horse that deserves some respect. He is #13 on my list now but if he wins another race he'll move up on my list dramatically.

What if the twelve horses in front of him on your list all win another race too?

What if he never wins another race, will he move down?