What do you make of Blame's loss yesterday?

[smartbid09]

I watched Blame lose yesterday and I have no idea what to think. Although I know that any horse can lose a race - I wonder if Blame lost any of his luster by losing yesterday? What are your thought's on Blame's loss? Do you still believe he is BEGGING for the mile and a quarter? Was he unimpressive? Was he just not the best horse that day? Is he still the horse to beat in the Breeders Cup Classic this year?

[Danzig]

haynesfield got brave on the front end with no pressure early and a slow enough pace that he couldn't be caught late. just my opinion, but i see no reason to not have blame as my pick next month.

[miraja2]

It is difficult to know what will happen in the BCC because we have no idea who will be in and what the pace will be, but I see the "loss" yesterday as a good thing.
I will probably bet him to win the classic, and yesterday probably helped the price considerably.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

I watched Blame lose yesterday and I have no idea what to think. Although I know that any horse can lose a race - I wonder if Blame lost any of his luster by losing yesterday? What are your thought's on Blame's loss? Do you still believe he is BEGGING for the mile and a quarter? Was he unimpressive? Was he just not the best horse that day? Is he still the horse to beat in the Breeders Cup Classic this year?

He ran the 2nd best race behind a winner that nobody in the country would've caught. He's never been a great horse, just a hard-trying horse who could overcome a bad pace setup against questionable competition. If someone speed-pops the field like that, there's not much he can do. His chances in the Classic rest and always have rested on what kind of pace shows up. Assuming there's no easy leader like Haynesfield, he's got as good a shot as anyone still.

[johnny pinwheel]

haynesfield got away with burgulary in that race. i can't see the next race going in those fractions. if QR runs you all know it won't. blame has a good shot next month. he like CD and will be a square price now probably. but, thats why you have to wait to see who is entered....pace makes the race.....pace makes the race .....pace makes the race, unless one horse is way better than the rest and there really are not any super stars at 10 furlongs unless zenyatta takes to that track. barring who shows up from the other countries, she looks like the best 10 furlonger we have.

[Port Conway Lane]

I don't see why Blame suddenly is going to be a square price in the BCC. He's the only horse out of the likely favorites that is proven over the surface. Smart money will keep his odds in line with QR and Zenyatta and it wouldn't surprise me if he is the post time favorite.
I don't see it.

[Siena 16]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

I watched Blame lose yesterday and I have no idea what to think. Although I know that any horse can lose a race - I wonder if Blame lost any of his luster by losing yesterday? What are your thought's on Blame's loss? Do you still believe he is BEGGING for the mile and a quarter? Was he unimpressive? Was he just not the best horse that day? Is he still the horse to beat in the Breeders Cup Classic this year?

Thought the Belmont surface quickened up toward the latter part of the card and Blame closed against what could be thought of as a speed bias and a loose leader. He will definately move forward off the race

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I don't see why Blame suddenly is going to be a square price in the BCC. He's the only horse out of the likely favorites that is proven over the surface. Smart money will keep his odds in line with QR and Zenyatta and it wouldn't surprise me if he is the post time favorite.
I don't see it.

At this point he strikes me as the most likely winner, but I think you might be underestimating the love for Zenyatta. If she's in the race, I think she will almost certainly be the post-time favorite because betting or cheering against her has become sacrilege for many.

[the_fat_man]

Disappointing; somewhat. Had doubts this one could get 10, except under perfect conditions. Showed, clearly, that he's not a 10F horse. In fact, he's probably not even 2nd on Saturday if Fly Down changes leads. Assuming there's pace/ample moves in the Classic, Blame figures to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then get run down by a 'genuine' 10F horse. A definite bet against in the Classic. If Zito is able to straighten out the footwork issues of FD (or take the easier way out and change jocks) FD will finish ahead of Blame. As will any other legit 10F horse(s).

[Linny]

I didn't see a speed biased track on Sat. It appeared pretty fair to me.

Haynesfield loves BEL. His only loss there was when he failed to get to the front in the "Sir Keys" stakes in his prep for the Empire Classic last fall. (He was a close second to Be Bullish that day.) When Rail Trip (who I expected to press aggressively) proved a no show, it was pretty clear that Haynesfield get his set up.
Blame is a very nice horse but he's what I call a grinder. He wears horses down with a sustained rally, rather than turn of foot. Trying to catch a high quality speed rival like Haynesfield when that horse has a 7 length lead that he didn't have to work that hard for requires acceleration that Blame doesn't really have.

Haynesfield wont have such a set up in KY with QR, First Dude, and other legit speed.

[LARHAGE]

I think it was a classic case of a loose on the lead winner on a track he has an affinity for, I thought Blame not only looked fat, but not exactly comfortable on the backside, I was surprised he hit the board , and he was actually running well at the end, I think this was a good tightener for him, he physically needed that race, these 8 week layoffs are ridiculous.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by miraja2

At this point he strikes me as the most likely winner, but I think you might be underestimating the love for Zenyatta. If she's in the race, I think she will almost certainly be the post-time favorite because betting or cheering against her has become sacrilege for many.

Maybe. There are more question marks this year than last. The biggest one is the surface. The competition this year competes primarily on dirt and Blame has 3 wins out of 4 starts at Churchill, never been out of the money in 12 starts and a running style comparable to Zenyatta.
The JCGC is not a big blemish on his record considering the horse that won is now 5 for 6 on that surface.
I think the "love for Zenyatta" is more hype than it's made out to be and based on a few radicals on message boards and the guy in the white tank top.

Well he isn't good because he lost. Good horses don't lose races.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Maybe. There are more question marks this year than last. The biggest one is the surface. The competition this year competes primarily on dirt and Blame has 3 wins out of 4 starts at Churchill, never been out of the money in 12 starts and a running style comparable to Zenyatta.
The JCGC is not a big blemish on his record considering the horse that won is now 5 for 6 on that surface.

These are all perfectly logical points in Blame's favor.

As such, they will have little impact on those who want to bet on Zenyatta in the BCC.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've never been a big fan of Blame. I think he's been very fortunate to be around at a time when both the 3yo male and older male division have been horrid.

He does have one thing going for him ... the Whitney was the toughest field assembled in America this year ... and he won that race.

Quality Road, Haynesfield, and Jardim were all romping next out winners exiting that race.

Jardim (beaten 20 lengths in the Whitney) took a 100K stakes race at Hoosier on Saturday by 7 lengths at 9/1 odds.

Haynesfield won the JCGC hadily by a big margin at 7/1 odds.

Haynesfield had a huge excuse in the Whitney though. He smashed through the gate before the start. And after being reloaded - Dominguez opten to rate off of QR - and he found himself pinned in behind Quality Road by a pyschotic Rajiv Maragh on Musket Man. He was shoulder to shoulder with Musket Man going into the far turn and litterally had to push him sideways to get out of the box Maragh put him in.

I remember commenting when I was watching the race - and posting it on here later - "who does Maragh think Haynesfield is? Cigar?"

As incredibly stupid as it was - I kind of understand why he felt the need to attempt to press an unpressured Quality Road ... but why he needed to race ride Haynesfield, put him in a box, and exchange bumps and contact with him to keep him in I really have no idea. It was truly a gem of stupidity.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've never been a big fan of Blame. I think he's been very fortunate to be around at a time when both the 3yo male and older male division have been horrid.

He does have one thing going for him ... the Whitney was the toughest field assembled in America this year ... and he won that race.

Quality Road, Haynesfield, and Jardim were all romping next out winners exiting that race.

Jardim (beaten 20 lengths in the Whitney) took a 100K stakes race at Hoosier on Saturday by 7 lengths at 9/1 odds.

Haynesfield won the JCGC hadily by a big margin at 7/1 odds.

Haynesfield had a huge excuse in the Whitney though. He smashed through the gate before the start. And after being reloaded - Dominguez opten to rate off of QR - and he found himself pinned in behind Quality Road by a pyschotic Rajiv Maragh on Musket Man. He was shoulder to shoulder with Musket Man going into the far turn and litterally had to push him sideways to get out of the box Maragh put him in.

I remember commenting when I was watching the race - and posting it on here later - "who does Maragh think Haynesfield is? Cigar?"

As incredibly stupid as it was - I kind of understand why he felt the need to attempt to press an unpressured Quality Road ... but why he needed to race ride Haynesfield, put him in a box, and exchange bumps and contact with him to keep him in I really have no idea. It was truly a gem of stupidity.

Maragh is about as bright as the coach of the AZ Cards, no?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maragh is about as bright as the coach of the AZ Cards, no?

I don't know what it is about him - but his numbers are ok on the turf - and good in sprints - for whatever reason, his numbers are god awful - year in and year out in dirt routes.

I don't normally see a lot of stupitiy from him or his riding.

But yeah, "Derrick Anderson gives us a lot at the QB position"

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by miraja2

These are all perfectly logical points in Blame's favor.

As such, they will have little impact on those who want to bet on Zenyatta in the BCC.

I disagree.
I'd be willing to give her post time odds if she is favored and take her odds if she's not provided LAL,QR, and Blame run.

[outofthebox]

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

Too much is made about naked fractions like that. Unless you have pace and final time pars and charts - and you can use them to account for the speed of the track - you can't really gauge fractions well.

I have them for every distance at Belmont except 10fs and 12fs... so I'm in the same boat with everyone else.

But, that 10 furlong start at Belmont is right on the first turn - and I'm sure that makes the pace appear slower than it really is.

If anyone remembers last years Jockey Club Gold Cup - two high quality speed horses in Tizway and Quality Road were up front setting a 49.73 pace ... and neither had any answer late for Summer Bird.

49.73 doesn't mean much when you don't have the right information to quantify it.