Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-20-2009, 12:57 PM
VOL JACK's Avatar
VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: @VOLJACK79
Posts: 2,578
Default Lookin at Sucky

WOW 83 Beyer for what would be the Ky Derby favorite if Future pools opened today.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-20-2009, 01:18 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK
WOW 83 Beyer for what would be the Ky Derby favorite if Future pools opened today.
He's had a lot of cozy trips and lost the only time he didn't. It's amazing how many MSW and ALW winners will go into 2010 looking as good if not better than the two "favorites" right now.

NT
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-20-2009, 01:27 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

It didn't even look that fast.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-20-2009, 01:53 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK
WOW 83 Beyer for what would be the Ky Derby favorite if Future pools opened today.
All bets are off because of the synthetics, obviously.

Last year, the 1-2 horses ran an 86 and we all know IWR rattled off 113 and 103 Beyers respectively when switched to dirt.

CA and its major 2yo/3yo races are obsolete now as a proving ground for Derby horses, which is a shame because it was potent for quite a stretch in the '80s and '90s, and obviously there are still a few horses who may prefer dirt (eg IWR, Papa Clem, Colonel John, Gayego, etc) that are at a huge disadvantage as far as competing in the Triple Crown is concerned.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-20-2009, 02:23 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
He's had a lot of cozy trips and lost the only time he didn't. It's amazing how many MSW and ALW winners will go into 2010 looking as good if not better than the two "favorites" right now.

NT
Who are the 2 favorites? Dublin and Wow Wow Wow?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-20-2009, 02:34 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

More than the speed, right now I'd have a hard time embracing Lucky going forward toward real routes of ground based on his early eagerness. Every race he hits the backstretch and is fighting to go on. If that isn't cured, it won't matter how much he may move up on dirt. He may be outrunning horses right now, but the true two turn horses will devour him down the road if he can't relax.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-20-2009, 02:37 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

Afleet Express will probably be the Derby favorite.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-20-2009, 02:54 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Afleet Express will probably be the Derby favorite.
This is bold, he's a maiden winner who ran slow.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-20-2009, 02:55 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
More than the speed, right now I'd have a hard time embracing Lucky going forward toward real routes of ground based on his early eagerness. Every race he hits the backstretch and is fighting to go on. If that isn't cured, it won't matter how much he may move up on dirt. He may be outrunning horses right now, but the true two turn horses will devour him down the road if he can't relax.
I don't think that's accurate. The Hollywood Futurity is the first time he pulled down the backstretch, and was most likely a by-product of Bob Baffert wanting the horse closer to the pace after the way the trip in the BC panned out. In addition, the pace was dawdling yesterday, especially since the track seemed to be playing fast (at least in the sprints).

To hear most people, whether fans or critics of the horse, his ability to relax (ie professionalism/maturity) is perhaps his main strength.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-20-2009, 03:49 PM
MisterB's Avatar
MisterB MisterB is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 1,040
Default

He is only going to run in 2 more races before the Derby. Where is the question. Oaklawn, Florida, NY.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 12-20-2009, 04:06 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,965
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I don't think that's accurate. The Hollywood Futurity is the first time he pulled down the backstretch, and was most likely a by-product of Bob Baffert wanting the horse closer to the pace after the way the trip in the BC panned out. In addition, the pace was dawdling yesterday, especially since the track seemed to be playing fast (at least in the sprints).

To hear most people, whether fans or critics of the horse, his ability to relax (ie professionalism/maturity) is perhaps his main strength.
RT,

Might be right... I think in the Norfolk you can see him throwing his head and really wanting to go. He does settle there, as he did yesterday, but when they start going 9f and beyond, that starts to catch up with you. I just get the feeling watching him that he wants to get to the front sooner than Gomez wants him there.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 12-20-2009, 04:10 PM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,801
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterB
He is only going to run in 2 more races before the Derby. Where is the question. Oaklawn, Florida, NY.
If they are in it just for the dough, he'll stay on the west coast. Is Lucky this years Pioneer of the Nile?
__________________
Game Over
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 12-20-2009, 04:29 PM
eajinabi's Avatar
eajinabi eajinabi is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,755
Default

Looking at Lucy is probably not the best Baffert runner
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 12-20-2009, 04:42 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

They would be crazy not to keep him on the junk. Easy money. A la Pioneer of a Nile. Afleet Express is running in 2 weeks at GP in an allowance where he will be like 3/5.
Then he'll run in the FOY where he'll be vieng for favortism with Buddys Saint. Then its the Florida Derby, a la Quality Road. I see no reason this horse wont be favored if he is in the gate in the KY Derby.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 12-20-2009, 04:50 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,940
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
They would be crazy not to keep him on the junk. Easy money. A la Pioneer of a Nile. Afleet Express is running in 2 weeks at GP in an allowance where he will be like 3/5.
Then he'll run in the FOY where he'll be vieng for favortism with Buddys Saint. Then its the Florida Derby, a la Quality Road. I see no reason this horse wont be favored if he is in the gate in the KY Derby.

oh, there's a reason. silly season, with a new, hot horse every week, is about to commence. i can't wait!
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 12-20-2009, 05:14 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
They would be crazy not to keep him on the junk. Easy money. A la Pioneer of a Nile. Afleet Express is running in 2 weeks at GP in an allowance where he will be like 3/5.
Then he'll run in the FOY where he'll be vieng for favortism with Buddys Saint. Then its the Florida Derby, a la Quality Road. I see no reason this horse wont be favored if he is in the gate in the KY Derby.
I know you're prone to hyperbole but I think your confidence in Afleet Express is a little excessive.

NT
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 12-20-2009, 05:19 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I know you're prone to hyperbole but I think your confidence in Afleet Express is a little excessive.

NT
I didnt say he was going to win the Derby, I just said he'd probably be the favorite. My guess is people will flock to him after he wins a few races at Gulfstream, especially if he does what QR did last year, and there is no reason to think that is far fetched given the current players pointed to the Gulfstream preps. His trainer rarely shows his emotions and overconfidence, but from what I hear, he is putting all his eggs in this basket.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 12-20-2009, 05:51 PM
AeWingnut's Avatar
AeWingnut AeWingnut is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Suddenly
Posts: 4,828
Default

Baffert said his next start would probably be on dirt.

I would guess Florida but it depends on how long he sits
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 12-20-2009, 07:03 PM
asudevil's Avatar
asudevil asudevil is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 1,574
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by eajinabi
Looking at Lucy is probably not the best Baffert runner
Agree!
__________________
"I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12-21-2009, 01:12 AM
chucklestheclown chucklestheclown is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,562
Default

LOL! Baffert said he will run two preps on dirt next year. I would guess he goes head-to-head with Pletcher's best.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.