Lookin at Sucky
 

WOW 83 Beyer for what would be the Ky Derby favorite if Future pools opened today.

He's had a lot of cozy trips and lost the only time he didn't. It's amazing how many MSW and ALW winners will go into 2010 looking as good if not better than the two "favorites" right now.

NT

It didn't even look that fast.

All bets are off because of the synthetics, obviously.

Last year, the 1-2 horses ran an 86 and we all know IWR rattled off 113 and 103 Beyers respectively when switched to dirt.

CA and its major 2yo/3yo races are obsolete now as a proving ground for Derby horses, which is a shame because it was potent for quite a stretch in the '80s and '90s, and obviously there are still a few horses who may prefer dirt (eg IWR, Papa Clem, Colonel John, Gayego, etc) that are at a huge disadvantage as far as competing in the Triple Crown is concerned.

Who are the 2 favorites? Dublin and Wow Wow Wow?

More than the speed, right now I'd have a hard time embracing Lucky going forward toward real routes of ground based on his early eagerness. Every race he hits the backstretch and is fighting to go on. If that isn't cured, it won't matter how much he may move up on dirt. He may be outrunning horses right now, but the true two turn horses will devour him down the road if he can't relax.

Afleet Express will probably be the Derby favorite.

This is bold, he's a maiden winner who ran slow.

I don't think that's accurate. The Hollywood Futurity is the first time he pulled down the backstretch, and was most likely a by-product of Bob Baffert wanting the horse closer to the pace after the way the trip in the BC panned out. In addition, the pace was dawdling yesterday, especially since the track seemed to be playing fast (at least in the sprints).

To hear most people, whether fans or critics of the horse, his ability to relax (ie professionalism/maturity) is perhaps his main strength.

He is only going to run in 2 more races before the Derby. Where is the question. Oaklawn, Florida, NY.:confused:

RT,

Might be right... I think in the Norfolk you can see him throwing his head and really wanting to go. He does settle there, as he did yesterday, but when they start going 9f and beyond, that starts to catch up with you. I just get the feeling watching him that he wants to get to the front sooner than Gomez wants him there.

If they are in it just for the dough, he'll stay on the west coast. Is Lucky this years Pioneer of the Nile?

Looking at Lucy is probably not the best Baffert runner

They would be crazy not to keep him on the junk. Easy money. A la Pioneer of a Nile. Afleet Express is running in 2 weeks at GP in an allowance where he will be like 3/5.
Then he'll run in the FOY where he'll be vieng for favortism with Buddys Saint. Then its the Florida Derby, a la Quality Road. I see no reason this horse wont be favored if he is in the gate in the KY Derby.

oh, there's a reason. silly season, with a new, hot horse every week, is about to commence. i can't wait!

I know you're prone to hyperbole but I think your confidence in Afleet Express is a little excessive.

NT

I didnt say he was going to win the Derby, I just said he'd probably be the favorite. My guess is people will flock to him after he wins a few races at Gulfstream, especially if he does what QR did last year, and there is no reason to think that is far fetched given the current players pointed to the Gulfstream preps. His trainer rarely shows his emotions and overconfidence, but from what I hear, he is putting all his eggs in this basket.

Baffert said his next start would probably be on dirt.

I would guess Florida but it depends on how long he sits

Agree!

LOL! Baffert said he will run two preps on dirt next year. I would guess he goes head-to-head with Pletcher's best.