Curlin to show

TheSpyder · #1 08-30-2008, 04:43 PM

$272K of $300K with 10 mins to go.....

Thunder Gulch · #2 08-31-2008, 08:59 AM

Betting longshots to show is worse than betting the favorites. Not that either is a good investment when 90% of the money is on one horse, but to take small payouts on real longshots is suicide.

CSC · #3 08-31-2008, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Betting longshots to show is worse than betting the favorites. Not that either is a good investment when 90% of the money is on one horse, but to take small payouts on real longshots is suicide.

I never understood why anyone would bet for show, I'm not criticizing I just feel it is such a very low % bang for the buck play. The goal is to make money. When I look at pick 3's and 4's, the same applies why would anyone want to pick for instance yesterday a Speed Limit, Friendly Island, and Curlin ticket? You have to surmise which horse you feel is the weakness favorite in the chain with the highest return if they lose.

DogsUp · #4 08-31-2008, 01:59 PM

I think someone bet $500k to show. That person(s) made $25,000 in less than 2 minutes. I don't think that is a bad days work at all. And it is all tax free. I think anyone would take 5% return on their investment.

Scav · #5 08-31-2008, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp

I think someone bet $500k to show. That person(s) made $25,000 in less than 2 minutes. I don't think that is a bad days work at all. And it is all tax free. I think anyone would take 5% return on their investment.

technically it isn't tax free, you are suppose to report all gambling winnings, which are then set off by all losses

jwkniska · #6 08-31-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

When I look at pick 3's and 4's, the same applies why would anyone want to pick for instance yesterday a Speed Limit, Friendly Island, and Curlin ticket?

look at that ticket this way..... fav, fav, fav won't pay anything (maybe $10-15). based on an avg that the favorite wins say 33% of the races... to make the math easier, you have a 1/3 X 1/3 X 1/3 chance of all 3 fav's winning, which is 1/27 or 3.7%. Anyone willing to take only a 3.7% chance to win on a $10 return.... has absolutely NO CLUE!

I will however play show bets if a race is wide open and there is no low price favorite or a false favorite that I think will be off the board. Had the french horse in the Beverly D to show at 50-1 in a race that I correctly handicapped that the favorite was off the board. Glad I played it to show, as she came in 3rd.

DogsUp · #7 08-31-2008, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

technically it isn't tax free, you are suppose to report all gambling winnings, which are then set off by all losses

well that is true. But so are tips if you are a server.

CSC · #8 08-31-2008, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkniska

look at that ticket this way..... fav, fav, fav won't pay anything (maybe $10-15). based on an avg that the favorite wins say 33% of the races... to make the math easier, you have a 1/3 X 1/3 X 1/3 chance of all 3 fav's winning, which is 1/27 or 3.7%. Anyone willing to take only a 3.7% chance to win on a $10 return.... has absolutely NO CLUE!

I will however play show bets if a race is wide open and there is no low price favorite or a false favorite that I think will be off the board. Had the french horse in the Beverly D to show at 50-1 in a race that I correctly handicapped that the favorite was off the board. Glad I played it to show, as she came in 3rd.

I agree with everything you said, nothing I can add except to avoid confusion I would never just play a show bet unless the show pool demanded it.