Thursday's 3rd race at Belmont looks loaded

parsixfarms · #1 05-21-2008, 11:24 AM

I can't recall a stronger-looking NW1x allowance for fillies going a distance of ground in New York in ages. Not often that you see three maiden winners (Song of Love, Music Note, Charming) with very strong pedigrees that ran an 84 Beyer or faster in breaking their respective maidens. And some of their more experienced rivals aren't that bad either.

blackthroatedwind · #2 05-21-2008, 12:15 PM

Best NW1X I've seen in a long time.

my miss storm cat · #3 05-21-2008, 12:15 PM

PPs...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_110981.pdf

NoLuvForPletch · #4 05-21-2008, 05:32 PM

Does anyone have an opinion on this race, or should we just admire the depth of the race and not bet?

Something must've happened with Music Note for her to be on the shelf for almost 7 months, right?

What about the filly out of Take Charge Lady that doesn't debut until April of her 3YO season? She cost 3.2 MM and Pletcher will run just about anything at 2? Where has she been?

Kiaran's horse ran a very nice 7 3/4 f last time out, but cost me the Pick 4 when she couldn't seal the deal.

Then there's Barclay's horse. He's only winning at 40% so far at BEL and it was he who trained the filly that caught A Rose For You last time.

I think I'll go with the Pletcher. 109 and 3 on the Poly in the 4 path (though I'll have to watch the replay since I don't understand how a horse breaking from the rail could be on the lead and racing in the 4 path all the way around), and then ran her last steenth in 6 seconds flat.

She'll be my main horse in the Pick 4 with a few tickets using the Tagg. If the Godolphin beats me after a 7 month layoff, and in my mind an ailment, so be it.

Any thoughts?

my miss storm cat · #5 05-21-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Something must've happened with Music Note for her to be on the shelf for almost 7 months, right?

I think she was the one who went to Dubai with Etched in November and was pointed to the UAE Oaks.....

Her not running for 7 months doesn't imply there was a problem, at least not to me....

They had a lot of other nice runners for the Carnival and with the flat season just now underway..... I don't think it's a health issue.

I think she's good enough (to win here) but I'm often wrong.

my miss storm cat · #6 05-21-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I like Music Note. She was probably in Dubai, which could explain the gap in works. And bin Suroor's numbers with this kind of returnee are very good.

Wasn't copying you!

ateamstupid · #7 05-21-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I like Music Note. She was probably in Dubai, which could explain the gap in works. And bin Suroor's numbers with this kind of returnee are very good.

I do too. I wasn't that impressed with Charming's debut, and if she wants the lead, Cateleisha will probably make her earn it. I also think Song of Love wants grass.

#8 05-21-2008, 05:56 PM

bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.

ateamstupid · #9 05-21-2008, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

LOL.

swedejxn · #10 05-21-2008, 06:15 PM

worst trainer with probably the best stock outside of pletcher.... agreeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.

blackthroatedwind · #11 05-21-2008, 09:45 PM

I like Song of Love. Her debut was visually impressive to me. She's a half to Nobiz by the way.

On bin Suroor....Rick Mettee trains the horses in the US.

philcski · #12 05-21-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.

Me too... gets first run from just off the speed.

Charming got away with pretty easy fractions in her debut, so even though the final time was smart I'd rather see her earn one at her expected odds.

What a nice group of fillies, even the longshot Jersey-bred is solid, and she has no chance in here.

tiggerv · #13 05-21-2008, 10:33 PM

No value with her but I like Charming. She was tested and very game first out and they came home pretty quick.

blackthroatedwind · #14 05-21-2008, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

No value with her but I like Charming. She was tested and very game first out and they came home pretty quick.

She also was allowed to herd the second place finisher out about eight paths.

the_fat_man · #15 05-21-2008, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She also was allowed to herd the second place finisher out about eight paths.

Terrible ride by Gomez on the runner up.

VOL JACK · #16 05-21-2008, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like Song of Love. Her debut was visually impressive to me. She's a half to Nobiz by the way.

On bin Suroor....Rick Mettee trains the horses in the US.

her debut seems to have been a live race.

the_fat_man · #17 05-22-2008, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

her debut seems to have been a live race.

Absolutely. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers are a combined 0 for 5. That's about as live as a race can get. Did something actually win back out of that race?

ateamstupid · #18 05-22-2008, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She also was allowed to herd the second place finisher out about eight paths.

Glad someone mentioned that. Were she not the 3/2 favorite and a $3.2 million purchase, I think she would've been taken down.

SCUDSBROTHER · #19 05-22-2008, 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Glad someone mentioned that. Were she not the 3/2 favorite and a $3.2 million purchase, I think she would've been taken down.

That very last bump should of been the cherry on top. It's amazing to me that they think all that has no effect on the outside horse. When you win by a neck, it doesn't take that much interference to cost you the race. I saw one that was even worse at HWD PARK (the Saturday before last.) Very tiny little Mullins filly doing anything possible to keep a bigger horse from going by. I have zero idea why they left her up in that little stakes. They often ignore herding. If you know you're gunna get passed, you might as well try it(because they often let guys get away with it.)

SCUDSBROTHER · #20 05-22-2008, 04:19 AM

That's a tough call between Song of Love , and Music Note. Song of Love has already shown the turn of foot to probably overcome the inside post. She is better in the middle of the race, and Music Note is probably a bit better finisher (although that could be shown incorrect if "Song" improves tomorrow.) I don't think I would try to single the race.