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-   -   Thursday's 3rd race at Belmont looks loaded (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22634)

parsixfarms 05-21-2008 11:24 AM

Thursday's 3rd race at Belmont looks loaded
 
I can't recall a stronger-looking NW1x allowance for fillies going a distance of ground in New York in ages. Not often that you see three maiden winners (Song of Love, Music Note, Charming) with very strong pedigrees that ran an 84 Beyer or faster in breaking their respective maidens. And some of their more experienced rivals aren't that bad either.

blackthroatedwind 05-21-2008 12:15 PM

Best NW1X I've seen in a long time.

my miss storm cat 05-21-2008 12:15 PM

PPs...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_110981.pdf

NoLuvForPletch 05-21-2008 05:32 PM

Does anyone have an opinion on this race, or should we just admire the depth of the race and not bet?

Something must've happened with Music Note for her to be on the shelf for almost 7 months, right?

What about the filly out of Take Charge Lady that doesn't debut until April of her 3YO season? She cost 3.2 MM and Pletcher will run just about anything at 2? Where has she been?

Kiaran's horse ran a very nice 7 3/4 f last time out, but cost me the Pick 4 when she couldn't seal the deal.

Then there's Barclay's horse. He's only winning at 40% so far at BEL and it was he who trained the filly that caught A Rose For You last time.

I think I'll go with the Pletcher. 109 and 3 on the Poly in the 4 path (though I'll have to watch the replay since I don't understand how a horse breaking from the rail could be on the lead and racing in the 4 path all the way around), and then ran her last steenth in 6 seconds flat.

She'll be my main horse in the Pick 4 with a few tickets using the Tagg. If the Godolphin beats me after a 7 month layoff, and in my mind an ailment, so be it.

Any thoughts?

my miss storm cat 05-21-2008 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Something must've happened with Music Note for her to be on the shelf for almost 7 months, right?

I think she was the one who went to Dubai with Etched in November and was pointed to the UAE Oaks.....

Her not running for 7 months doesn't imply there was a problem, at least not to me....

They had a lot of other nice runners for the Carnival and with the flat season just now underway..... I don't think it's a health issue.

I think she's good enough (to win here) but I'm often wrong.

my miss storm cat 05-21-2008 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I like Music Note. She was probably in Dubai, which could explain the gap in works. And bin Suroor's numbers with this kind of returnee are very good.

Wasn't copying you! :D

ateamstupid 05-21-2008 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I like Music Note. She was probably in Dubai, which could explain the gap in works. And bin Suroor's numbers with this kind of returnee are very good.

I do too. I wasn't that impressed with Charming's debut, and if she wants the lead, Cateleisha will probably make her earn it. I also think Song of Love wants grass.

Coach Pants 05-21-2008 05:56 PM

bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.

ateamstupid 05-21-2008 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

LOL.

swedejxn 05-21-2008 06:15 PM

worst trainer with probably the best stock outside of pletcher.... agreeed
Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.


blackthroatedwind 05-21-2008 09:45 PM

I like Song of Love. Her debut was visually impressive to me. She's a half to Nobiz by the way.

On bin Suroor....Rick Mettee trains the horses in the US.

philcski 05-21-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
bin Suroor might be the worst trainer on the planet.

I'll take A Rose For You at 5/1 or higher.

Me too... gets first run from just off the speed.

Charming got away with pretty easy fractions in her debut, so even though the final time was smart I'd rather see her earn one at her expected odds.

What a nice group of fillies, even the longshot Jersey-bred is solid, and she has no chance in here.

tiggerv 05-21-2008 10:33 PM

No value with her but I like Charming. She was tested and very game first out and they came home pretty quick.

blackthroatedwind 05-21-2008 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv
No value with her but I like Charming. She was tested and very game first out and they came home pretty quick.


She also was allowed to herd the second place finisher out about eight paths.

the_fat_man 05-21-2008 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
She also was allowed to herd the second place finisher out about eight paths.

Terrible ride by Gomez on the runner up.

VOL JACK 05-21-2008 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I like Song of Love. Her debut was visually impressive to me. She's a half to Nobiz by the way.

On bin Suroor....Rick Mettee trains the horses in the US.

her debut seems to have been a live race.

the_fat_man 05-22-2008 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK
her debut seems to have been a live race.


Absolutely. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers are a combined 0 for 5. That's about as live as a race can get. Did something actually win back out of that race?


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