Looking at the pedigrees of recent Derby winners

[Calzone Lord]

I did a write-up on this yesterday.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unloc...salvatore.aspx

Incidentally, I love the second comment. It reminds me why my father keeps telling me that I'm making a huge mistake by focusing my writing on pedigree handicapping...and not other aspects of handicapping like trips, pace, figures, trainer analysis, etc.

The commenter points out that California Chrome is sired by a son of Pulpit. That his dam is a grand daughter of Mr. Prospector, and that he's inbred to some VERY nice ones.

Of course, to play that game, Zippy Chippy is sired by a son of the legendary Northern Dancer, who is a full brother to El Gran Senor. Zippy Chippy's dam is a grand daughter of Buckpasser. And, indeed, Zippy Chippy is inbred 3X3 to Buckpasser and 4X4 to Native Dancer.

Yes, if you disregard accounting for the sire, and the up-close tail female-family -- California Chrome and Zippy Chippy both have royal pedigrees! Indeed, virtually every single horse who races at Beulah Park has a similarly royal pedigree by that standard.

Not quite in his exact words, but my father basically thinks that pedigree analysis should be left up to 'the dreamers, the schemers, the charlatans, and people who belong in a padded cell.' (I'm not sure which of those categories Pedigree Ann falls into.) But basically, he's been on my case saying "stick to other subjects, avoid that one!" -- and of course, I won't listen to him.

Anyway, from a handicapping and betting prospective especially, the up close tail-female family is where you want to focus your efforts, when efforts are warranted (usually in maiden races with lightly raced horses)

After researching that part of the pedigree for every Derby winner since Y2K, I've found that the vast majority of recent Derby winners usually have clear distance pedigrees in the up-close tail female family. Here's a Breakdown.

Sprint oriented:
NONE


Versatile or distance neutral:
STREET SENSE
SMARTY JONES
FUNNY CIDE


Route oriented:
ORB
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER
ANIMAL KINGDOM
SUPER SAVER
MINE THAT BIRD
BIG BROWN
WAR EMBLEM
MONARCHOS
FUSAICHI PEGASUS

Tough to categorize:
BARBARO (could easily be classified as route-oriented, as his dams best form and figures came in turf marathons at 11 furlongs. However, she was also effective sprinting)

GIACOMO (his dam, as a racer, was a confirmed sprinter. However, as a broodmare, she produced distance horse after distance horse)


Conclusion: The majority of recent Derby winners had clear-cut distance oriented pedigrees through the up-close tail female family. None of them had clear-cut sprint oriented pedigrees.