Show goes on at Belmont minus attempt at Crown
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
While the injury and retirement of I’ll Have Another cast a stunned pall over Belmont and the racing community Friday, the show goes on Saturday. Many racetrack idioms are attributed to Charlie Whittingham and he certainly was heard saying the harsh but ultimately accurate axiom ‘one monkey don’t the stop the circus’. Another Triple Crown winner will come, but it won’t come this year. One thing this three week lead up to the the ‘Test of the Champion’ managed to do was distinctly identify a plethora of media frauds that don’t understand the game and are not interested in making any attempt to learn. They’ll be plenty of time for a rehashing of the non-racing segment of the Triple Crown season story, but right now let’s attack a fun 13 race/6 stake card Saturday at Belmont Park.
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Fun group to start it off. Wilkes’ Forever Vow drops as does Pugh’s Wet One. McPeek’s Uptown Girl goes 2nd off the break and 1st Lasix in U.S., while favored I Dreamt I Was a must 2nd off her own extended absence..
Best Value: #6 Forever Vow 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Wet One 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 I Dreamt I Was 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #10 Uptown Girl 15-1 9th
2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Straightforward group. Would be happy to see Rich Migliore’s group win with Love to Run..
Most Likely: #2 Wild Target 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Love to Run 5-1 WON ($8.90)
Next Best: #3 Tiz Yankee 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Escape Artist 3-1 4th
3rd: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Strange assembly with 7 at the $14k tag..
#8 Ruffino a SCR
Most Likely: #9 Mineswept 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #7 Jeter 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Live for Today 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Overextended 15-1 3rd
$1 Exacta (9-4) Paid $41.25
$1 Trifecta (9-4-6) Paid $554.50
4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Some OK looking maidens here but key question is what to do with favored Longwood Lake (3-1) who returns under Eddie Coletti’s watch? Meanwhile, 2nd choice Current Design feels to me like one of the day’s more likely winners..
Most Likely: #2 Current Design 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Define 20-1 WON ($27.40)
Next Best: #7 Moonstock 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Ur 12-1 5th
5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Carbon County 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Quiet Power 20-1 11th
Next Best: #5 In My Eyes 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Adirondack Dancer 2-1 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 2-3-4-6
3: 3-4-5-6-7-9
4: 2-4
5: 1-5-6
4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)
$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..
At first, there was uncertainty as to this event filling. It not only filled, it’s terrific. Teeth of the Dog is OK, but you hardly want him at 2-1. Plenty of other price options including Romancing the Gold who I thought was on his way to nice things and played in the Illinois Derby..
Best Value: #2 Romancing the Gold 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Brimstone Island 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Teeth of the Dog 2-1 WON ($6.10)
Super Add: #9 Inflation Target 4-1 5th
7th: 34th True North (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)
Sprint Division seems to be heating as we get into summer. A case can be made for everyone signed on here with all having races in their PP’s or form that could justify your confidence. While I’m not big on noting jockey decisions, Rosario siding with Pacific Ocean over Smiling Tiger raises an eyebrow..
Most Likely: #7 Caixa Electronica 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #1 Pacific Ocean 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Giant Ryan 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Justin Phillip 10-1 2nd
8th: 19th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Tapitsfly 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #5 Hungry Island 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Winter Memories 6-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Dancinginherdreams 12-1 7th
9th: 28th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)
The 3yo version of the True North and every bit as compelling. Trinniberg’s Calder bullets indicate that the Derby experience took nothing away from him. The Chick Lang runners (Il Vilano/Laurie’s Rocket) could provide great value over the Derby Trial refugees (Hierro/Bourbon Courage). Likewise, there’s value in the trio exiting the 5/12 Belmont ALW (Hardened Wildcat/Brian/Currency Swap). Isn’t He Clever gets back to one turning in the new barn (Asmussen) and has had plenty of time. Power World is going to slip through the cracks in the wagering and may float well above the 8-1 ML. Unbelievable betting affair..
Most Likely: #6 Trinniberg 7-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #10 Laurie’s Rocket 20-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Hardened Wildcat 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Power World 8-1 8th
.10 SUPER: Key 6 first/second with 1-2-7-8-10 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)
10th: 111th Manhattan H. (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Not the most august field in the history of this great race, but every G1 horse ever had to win their first G1 at some point. Tough to argue with Shug’s year in turf tests so far this year and Boisterous loves this lawn, but there isn’t a lot separating this group. As highlighted by Nick Tammaro on ATR Friday, note the dearth of speed in here. Both Omayad, who Drysdale would not bring without purpose, and Papaw Bodie, who reunites with Napravnik and owns a win over the strip, could take control and go a long way..
Most Likely: #2 Boisterous 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Omayad 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Papaw Bodie 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Desert Blanc 6-1 WON ($14.80)
11th: 144th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)
With I’ll Have Another absent, the pressure cooker scenario of this race evaporates and seemingly the prospects for a chaotic result. You would think that everyone involved will now focus on the task at hand as opposed to concentrating on the erstwhile favorite and what he was doing. That should trigger more aggressive riding and an honest pace that gives every running style their chance to succeed. Dullahan’s sharp work adds a positive and versatile dimension to his arsenal and he could not have looked better tuning up for this spot. He inherits the favorites role and is the horse to beat. Union Rags gets his opportunity to quash naysayers opinion of him and feels like the horse that will run the style of race envisioned for I’ll Have Another. Though his pedigree says yes, Paynter does not look like a stayer physically and will be tested by the likes of Unstoppable U and My Adonis. Street Life is a fashionable tab coming in but still feels like a ‘picks up pieces’ type. Atigun and Optimizer look like they have puncher’s chances and are not impossible as exotic boosters. 50-1 Ravelo’s Boy is working sharp at Calder and by far the best of the bombers to use at the bottom of your super..
Most Likely:#5 Dullahan 9-5 7th
Next Best: #3 Union Rags 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Street Life 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Ravelo’s Boy 50-1 9th
<$150 P6 Play:
6: 2-5-6
7: 1-7
8: 1-5
9: 6
10: 1-2-3-4-5-6
11: 5
3x2x2x1x6x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
$2 Pick 6 (6/7/1/6/4/3) Paid $212.00 (5OF6)
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-4-5
9: 2-6-7-10
10: 1-2-3-4-5-6
11: 3-5
3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
$0.50 Pick 4 (1/6/4/3) Paid $320.75
12th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)
Deerslayer isn’t that special and should have plenty of front end company. Looking elsewhere..
Most Likely: #9 Count Catamount 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Deerslayer 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #12 Pin 12-1 7th
13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T
Yeesh. Any number of these can win here with many having exchanged plenty of blows..
Best Value: #13 Barnards Galaxy 30-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Frisky Cat 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Gossip Column 7-2 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #9 Sneaky Kitten 3-1 2nd
<$75 P4 Play:
10: 1-2-3-4-5-6
11: 3-5-9
12: 3-9
13: 2-9-12-13
6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72