37th Breeders’ Cup offers new environs, challenges
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Cup Day 1 waded everyone into the action Friday, with typical mix of surprises and excitement. It also importantly offered close examination of the turf course for clues to how it will play into Saturday. Liam’s Map, despite anxious moments, ultimately prevailed easily in the Dirt Mile and got the Viola Family the Cup victory they targeted. Stopchargingmaria, drummed into ATR listeners heads by Mike Welsch and Jay Privman, provided a big end of day boost to bankrolls edging a stubborn Stellar Wind in an exciting Distaff. The two Juvy Turf races proved agonizing personally and wins from either of my two keys were the difference between a solid enough first day and a spectacular one. In the boy’s heat, Airoforce could not withstand the remarkable Ryan Moore and gate-marooned Hit It a Bomb who overcame all obstacles while perhaps offering a road map for today’s outposted grass runners. An hour later, $30 Nemoralia proved out the right price miss to embrace, charging into the shockingly slow Juvy Fillies Turf pace to fell a length short of Catch a Glimpse and Alice Springs. Overall, with a few other pops, the prequel to Saturday’s main event was adequate. Hope everyone did well.
The most important factors out of Friday were the fact that the main track played more and more fair as the afternoon wore on (was slick early) and that the yielding turf was likely more on the good side and should offer perfect footing for any kind of lawn ranger today. If front runners couldn’t stay on over that course Friday, (softer turf going favors leaders), they certainly won’t today. Take shots liberally today. Let’s get lucky!
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: 12th Perryville, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Bayerd 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Hebbronville 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Next Best: #3 Lord Commander 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Majestic Affair 4-1 5th
2nd: 3rd Juvenile Dirt Sprint, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Sheikh of Sheikhs 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #10 Richie the Bull 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Noholdingback Bear 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Dan the Go to Man 5-1 6th
3rd: 32th Juvenile Fillies (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Songbird comes into this spot 2-3 lengths ahead off the others, but 2yo improvement can be volatile and Nickname, an imposing physical type, appears to have that potential. And while Nemoralia moved back to the turf for run yesterday, her performance only enhances the opinion of Nickname after their encounter in the Frizette. McPeek’s Dothraki Queen, and male barnmate Rated R Superstar later, ha quality efforts over the strip..
Most Likely: #7 Nickname 4-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Songbird 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #8 Dothraki Queen 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Rachel’s Valentine 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Land Over Sea 8-1 7th
$0.50 Pick-3 (1/4/10) Paid $29.75
4th: 8th Breeders’ Cup (G1), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Ridiculous assembly of sodhoppers and your 5 are undoubtedly as viable as the 5 below. Am mixing and matching running styles here with a speed (Mongolian/Geroux), an upclose presser (The Great War/Moore), stalker (Green Mask/Rosario), mid-packer (Undrafted/Dettori) and deep closer (Bobby/Castellano)..
Most Likely: #3 Undrafted 4-1 5th
Best Value: #14 Mongolian Saturday 15-1 WON ($33.80)
Next Best: #10 The Great War 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #2 Bobby’s Kitten 15-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Green Mask 15-1 3rd
$0.50 Pick-3 (4/10/14) Paid $59.20
5th: 9th Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Race was being handed to Cavorting a month ago with foes seemingly hard to round up and here we are with a full gate and the favorite a play-against, at least for me. As brought out on ATR this week, 3yo’s don’t do as well in this race as they do in the 6f sprint, so while I like that Hollendorfer got aggressive with her coming here, I’m siding with Super Majesty with trepidation. Not a lot to say about the race except that you need to spread liberally with a variety of these capable..
Most Likely: #6 Super Majesty 10-1 12th
Best Value: #7 Wavell Avenue 12-1 WON ($22.00)
Next Best: #11 Judy the Beauty 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Dame Dorothy 10-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Kiss to Remember 30-1 9th
$0.50 Pick-3 (10/14/7) Paid $205.90
P5 Grid:
1: 8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4-9 (C)
2: 4 (A), 3-10 (B), 5-7-8 (C)
3: 7-10 (A), – (B), 1-8-9 (C)
4: 3-14 (A), 2-7-10 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 11 (B), 1-2-3-8-10-12-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x5x3 = 270 x .50 = $135
NOTE: Trim to suit your budget.. i.e., if you prefer Songbird (#10) as a single in the Filly race (3rd), etc.
$0.50 Pick-5 (1/2,4,6/10/14/7) Paid $33.25 (4OF5) x 11 = $365.75
$0.50 Pick-5 (1/2,4,6/10/14/7) Paid $3,637.45
6th: 17th Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Secret Gesture gets Geroux and avenges the Beverly D disqualification. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Euros all nice — Legatissmo, Miss France, Queen’s Jewel, Talmada — but Beckett charge has come to U.S. twice and run well and should enjoy drafting voyage under increasingly brilliant jock. Bypass the amazing Stephanie’s Kitten at your own risk. Hard Not to Like wasn’t coming here unless she impressed Clement preparing. Talmada drew in and will be forgotten, but repeat of late run in E.P. Taylor will juice exotics at boxcar number..
Most Likely: #12 Secret Gesture 8-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Stephanie’s Kitten 10-1 WON ($17.60)
Next Best: #3 Legatissimo 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Miss France 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Photo Call 12-1 5th
$0.50 Pick-3 (14/7/11) Paid $975.50
P4 Grid:
3: 7-10 (A), – (B), 1-8-9 (C)
4: 3-14 (A), 2-7-10 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 2-10-11 (B), 1-3-8-12-14 (C)
6: 3-11-12 (A), – (B), 1-5-6-8-9-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
$0.50 Pick-4 (10/14/7/11) Paid $1,564.55
7th: 32nd Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
As discussed, there are 2 schools of thought into this fun edition.. One says that even with his delayed stutter-starting, Runhappy gets his sea legs quickly, gets past whoever is sharp early and runs them off their feet thereafter. (Note that Limousine Liberal and Ivan Fallonovalot are to either side of Runhappy and will likely outbreak him. If Velazquez and Borel draft together off the break, Prado will find himself with no where to go early.) The other suggests that no matter how Runhappy and Private Zone get out of the box, the other lead-interested parties (Favorite Tale, Masochistic, etc.) will keep the pressure on throughout. The pressers (Alsvid, Limousine, Ivan) stalkers (Stallwalkin’ Dude, Holy Boss, Barbados) and closers (Kobe’s Back, Salutos Amigos, Wild Dude) all seem to have opportunity to put in their runs. Expecting that just as in the King’s Bishop, it comes down to Limousine Liberal and Runhappy..
Most Likely: #4 Limousine Liberal 15-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Runhappy 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #6 Ivan Fallunovalot 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Holy Boss 15-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Salutos Amigos 12-1 5th
$0.50 Pick-3 (7/11/5) Paid $288.10
8th: 32nd Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Admit I don’t have a strong feel for this group, but certainly expect that it’s run at a pretty serious clip. Strong Euro presence over and above the defending winner and legitimate North American concerns including Shadwell exiters Tourist and Grand Arch. Another spot to spread starting late P4..
Most Likely: #9 Esoterique 7-2 7th
Next Best: #11 Karakontie 12-1 11th
Best Value: #10 Mshawish 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Time Test 6-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Make Believe 3-1 5th
9th: 32nd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Unlike the filly counterpart, there is no division leader among the baby boys and today’s proceedings will establish a pecking order. I’m taking the Chinese Menu approach in terms of regional strength, with players from the East (Greenpoint), Midwest (Brody/Superstar), Canada (Riker) and West (Exaggerator). The Casses (#1 Conquest Big E, #15 Siding Spring) as well as the ‘other’ Romans (#4 Unbridled Outlaw) and ‘other’ Desormeaux (#12 Swipe), all have merit and have gained backers going into this. Intriguing, deep field and I’ve sided with the Greenpoint off the terrific work over the track, the ones exiting the local prep over the track (Superstar/Brody/Exaggerator) and the ‘first dirt’ upside candidate (Riker) who appeared to be a gleeful sort when noted the last several mornings..
Most Likely: #3 Greenpointcrusader 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Rated R Superstar 15-1 11th
Next Best: #7 Brody’s Cause 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Exaggerator 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Riker 15-1 6th
10th: 32nd Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)
Not really ‘our’ place to argue where a Golden Horn fits among greats, but suffice to say he’s a VERY serious horse and as high profile a Euro to come to this event as we’ve seen in a long time. Ground should be fine and if he gets beat it will be a surprise. The Pizza Man is wonderful and should take a big slice. Big John B is my ‘reverse tri key’ concept Cup and will give a complete effort. Will play the 1 with 10 and 4-6-7-9-11 all around him (3) and under him too..
Most Likely: #1 Golden Horn 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #10 The Pizza Man 15-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Big John B 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Found 8-1 WON ($14.80)
Super Add: #7 Big Blue Kitten 8-1 3rd
10th: 32nd Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super Hi-5)
Drama of titanic Classic took a bruising with Beholder coming out, but perhaps it’s totally right that the focus be on the Triple Crown winner today. It’s hard to be completely dispassionate about some races when you are openly rooting for and endlessly promoting the sport as I do. This is one of the races. When Beholder was part of the picture, you had a scenario where race dynamics made it easier to envision a variety of outcomes from a horseplaying perspective alone. Under that scenario, I selected Tonalist as the appropriate horse to wager through. Now, with no obvious challenger to American Pharoah in the early portion of the race, I’m frankly in Belmont Stakes mode and would like to see the charismatic colt win his final career start. Tonalist, Frosted, Keen Ice and Honor Code are the obvious upset candidates, but I have to say that given the waves of pleasure and positive vibes American Pharoah, Espinoza, Baffert and the Zayat Family have provided the sport, they deserve to go out on top..
Most Likely: #4 American Pharoah 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #1 Tonalist 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Frosted 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Honor Code 6-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Keen Ice 12-1 4th
P6 Grid:
6: 3-11-12
7: 4-5
8: 3-5-6-7-9-10-11-12
9: 3-6-7-9
10: 1
11: 4
Simple: 3x2x8x4x1x1 = $192
P4 Grid:
8: 9-11 (A), 3-6-10-12 (B), 1-4-5-7 (C)
9: 3-6-7 (A), 2-9-12 (B), 1-4-15 (C)
10: 1 (A), – (B), 3-4-7-9 (C)
11: 1-4 (A), 2-3-9 (B), 5-6-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x6x1x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
12th: 10th Fort Springs, 3yo-F, 6f
Most Likely: #8 Dr. Fager’s Gal 9-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Desert Valley 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Coco’s Wildcat 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Meshell 12-1 WON ($22.40)
Super Add: #1 Sweet Swingin 7-2 6th
P4 Grid:
9: 3-6-7 (A), 2-9-12 (B), 1-4-15 (C)
10: 1 (A), – (B), 3-4-7-9 (C)
11: 1-4 (A), 2-3-9 (B), 5-6-8 (C)
12: 5-8 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 2-9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
FRIDAY
Every year we arrive at this juncture and I dust off the ‘Breeders’ Cup invocation’. The Cup offers unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they’ve become. No matter how well you ‘handicap’ the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an ‘0-fer’ going into Saturday’s finale and get it all back, and more, in the 2:01.0 it takes to run Saturday’s Classic. But no matter how the ledger looks when it’s over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won’t be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here’s hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.
As always, now for the 10th year in a row, it’s been a pleasure trying to bring this particularly unique edition of the Cup to everyone listening. I hope the 15 hours here and the time leading up offered each of you something you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Keeneland, Breeders’ Cup, ATR’s sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows and the listeners for taking the time.. Best of luck this weekend!
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Candip 7-2: Mixed it up with Ivan in OK.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Bump Start 10-1: Doesn’t need lead to succeed.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Officer Griffin 3-1: Superb at MNR; Faced BC T-SPR’s.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Helooksthepart 8-1: Looks like ideal clunk-up player.. 5th
2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Chanteline 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #1 Street Blush 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Mercer Mill Mae 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Titanium 3-1 4th
3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
For $75k, they could have put a name on this race given stakes participant level of group like MGSP (multiple graded stakes placed) Allied Air Raid. As discussed on ATR, Commute impressed Welsch and righted ship after ambitious Kings’ Bishop try. Texas Two Step back in action and back with Larry Jones who excels with this kind off layoff. The Truth Or Else turns back which McPeek does well..
Best Value: #4 Commute 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Allied Air Raid 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Texas Two Step 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 The Truth Or Else 3-1 2nd
4th: 15th Bryan Station, 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)
First chance to gauge the turf course and get a feel for what it will mean for the juveniles 1.5 and 2.5 hours later. Yet ANOTHER distinctly good group of sophomore turfers lined up here. Utilizing company lines, Commonwealth Derby and Secretariat appear key, while Attfield runner that met Lucky Lindy moves to Rosario and merits upset look..
Most Likely: #3 Fundamental 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Billy’s Star 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Closing Bell 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tale of Life 9-2 7th
Super Add: #8 One Go All Go 6-1 4th
5th: 58th Fayette (G2), 9f (P6, P3, DD)
Cup events haven’t started and you likely have a headache at this point. Crazy group here with eye-crossing array of in and out form on display. Race Day never had authentic sprint speed, so return to what he was doing well this spring mighty appealing at starting price of 10-1. Board may offer clues. Doubt you could build a triple or super ticket that anyone would question..
Best Value: #3 Race Day 10-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #6 Protonico 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Hoppertunity 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Encryption 12-1 3rd
P5 Grid:
1: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 5-6 (B), 4-9 (C)
3: 4-7 (A), 6-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
4: 3 (A), – (B), 9-10 (C)
5: 3 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: 9th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Happenstance at draw that badly compromised the top Euro invaders (Cymric; Hit It a Bomb), as well as Brown’s Camelot Kitten, expand the possibilities for tote excitement in the Cup kickoff. Birchwood Road and Shogun — both 12-1 — are the invaders that benefited from the draw, while obscured Dressed in Hermes (20-1), Highland Sky (30-1) and Ray’s the Bar (20-1) will save ground utilizing a running style that this course rewards. Having won the Bourbon with a heads up ride by Leparoux on the yielding KEE lawn, Airforce is horse to beat..
Most Likely: #8 Airoforce 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Dressed in Hermes 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Shogun 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Ray’s the Bar 20-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Highland Sky 30-1 6th
P4 Grid:
3: 4-7 (A), 6-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
4: 3 (A), 10 (B), 9 (C)
5: 3 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-10 (C)
6: 1-8 (A), 4-5-7-12 (B), 2-6-13-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
7th: 9th Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
You aren’t obligated to have an all or nothing approach to Liam’s Map. Is he very strong as the likeliest winner on paper? Of course. But he will have company, (Valid, Bradester, Mr. Z), so he may be under pressure at regular intervals and perhaps vulnerable to late probing by Red Vine, Lea, Wicked Strong. For multis, your budget tells you the approach to take because the depth of the Juvy Turfs, (and the Distaff depending on your view), will test your bankroll..
Most Likely: #3 Liam’s Map 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #5 Lea 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Bradester 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Red Vine 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Wicked Strong 5-1 4th
8th: 9th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (DD)
Whenever you come to Cup or Derby, a horse jumps at you that you hadn’t considered for a minute previously. Nemoralia did that for me this week, spending an extended period of time out on the track and clearly enjoying every minute. She greeted patrons. Admired the surroundings. Walked, jogged and galloped, and generally gave the appearance of being a very happy horse. She ran credibly in the Frizette and now returns to her preferred surface and will be no higher than 6th choice. Her style suits the race flow and course and I’m not convinced the Jessamine fillies are any better than another half dozen lining up here. Harmonize and Sapphire Kitten deserve respect of course, but don’t let Chad Brown slip past with Pricedtoperfection, the Miss Temple City sister. Gliding By is 30-1 and you get Mott/Lezcano..
Most Likely: #9 Nemoralia 15-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Pricedtoperfection 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Sapphire Kitten 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Harmonize 7-2 7th
Super Add: #12 Gliding By 30-1 12th
9th: 37th Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super Hi-5)
If you don’t make a commitment here, you’ll have to spread. Stopchargingmaria gets best case scenario for style she likes most and clearly is coming in to it hot. After her, take your choice of the big group of interchangeable fillies or mares, all with performances good enough to win this under optimal conditions. Hard to talk anyone off any of the contenders..
Most Likely: #4 Stopchargingmaria 5-1 WON ($16.20)
Next Best: #1 I’m a Chatterbox 8-1 8th
Best Value: #10 Yahilwa 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Curalina 12-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Salama 50-1 14th
P4 Grid:
6: 1-4-8 (A), 5-7-12 (B), 2-6-13-14 (C)
7: 3 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-6-8-9 (C)
8: 7-9-11 (A), 3-8-10-12-14 (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 4 (A), – (B), 1-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x3x8x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
10th: 9th Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f
Most Likely: #1 For Greater Glory 6-1 4th
Best Value: #14 Zambian Dream 20-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Bailoutbobby 6-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Neck ‘n Neck 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Majestic Harbor 7-2 2nd
P4 Grid:
7: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-6-8-9 (C)
8: 9-11 (A), 7-8-12 (B), – (C)
9: 4 (A), 1-10 (B), – (C)
10: 1-14 (A), 4-9-13 (B), 2-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75