DEL MAR ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Arms Runner 9-2 10th
Best Value: #5 Play Hard to Get 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Eckersly 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Ritzy A.P. 7-2 2nd

.50 TRI:2-5-7 with 2-3-5-7-8 with 2-3-5-7-8 (3x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18)

Alternately, a good spot for small budgets to use the REVERSE TRI KEYstrategy with late running price #5 Play Hard to Get (20-1): 2-3-7-8 with 2-3-7-8 with 5 (4x3x1 = 12 x .50 = $6)..

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read to start late P5 with 3yo company-keepers Shivermetimbers (Broke MDN this trip/strip) & Regulate (2nd after gelding; 1st after MDN-breaker) owning styles that should play well. Divisor (6-1), who ended 3yo campaign winning a starter here in November, is 2nd/break while reuniting with Gonzalez. ‘Other Baffert’ Show Me Da Lute (12-1) is making first start as a 4yo and normal maturity makes him competitive..

Most Likely: #1 Shivermetimbers 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #4 Divisor 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Show Me Da Lute 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Giant Influence 5-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Brill 5-2: $1MM Md’O from Dorf anointed as summer filly to watch..WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Vangogo 8-1: Working too fast at Los Al to dismiss..–
Next Best: #2 True Validity 7-2: With Bizwhacks below, exits Stirred (McCarthy) MDN affair..3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Bizwhacks 4-1: 2nd outing for miss discussed on ATR with O’Neill..6th

8th: Oceanside-R, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Bulky, well matched group. Don’t be shy using pricey fringe players. Artie B Good (20-1) turned in a sneaky strong soph and lawn debut down the SA hill June 8. Has drilled 19f since then for slick conditioner Morey and should stretch out with aplomb under savvy veteran pilot..

Best Value: #4 Artie B Good 20-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Texas Wedge 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Restrainedvengence 20-1 WON ($24.80)
Super Add: #10 Calexman 6-1 3rd

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Super Duper Cooper 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #8 Blame Joe 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hard Fought 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Fawree 4-1 4th

10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Half lightly raced and half solid but winless types..

Most Likely: #4 Sellwood 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Goren 20-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Zipman 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Henry County 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Data Central 7-2 4th

P5 Grid:

6: 1-4-9 (A), 3-7 (B), 5 (C)
7: 7(A), – (B), 2-4-9 (C)
8: 2-4-7-10 (A), 1-5-8-9-11 (B), 3-13 (C)
9: 6-7-8 (A), – (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 6-7-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x9x3x1 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
All A’s: 3x1x4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 7(A), – (B), 2-4-9 (C)
8: 2-4-7-10 (A), 1-5-8-9-11 (B), 3-13 (C)
9: 6-7-8 (A), – (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 4-11-12 (A), 6-7-8 (B), 1-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x9x3x6 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7,10/7/6/1) Paid $888.65(A-A-A-C)

DELAWARE/BELMONT X-C PICK 4

POST-SCRATCHES

DEL 8th: Kent (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DEL/BEL P4, P3, DD)

No need-the-lead types here, so expect Golden Brown and likely Carrick on top with blinkered Way Early stalking outside..

Best Value: #2 Hot Springs 6-1
Next Best: #5 Untamed Domain 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Way Early 8-1
Super Add: #3 Duc de Calas 8-1

BEL 8th: Opt CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Epping Forest 2-1
Next Best: #1 Malibu Stacy 7-2
Best Value: #3 Boos 15-1
Exotics Use: #2 Jc’s Shooting Star 5-2

DEL 9th: Delaware H. (G2), F&M-3+, 10f (DD)

Big ask of Elate to win at 10f off 253 day break. With Farrell out, Loooch’s Proper Discretion sets the pace and imagine his Nikki My Darling uses her as a target. Teresa Z should get a ground-saving trip inside and is bred top and bottom to love the classic distance. Unbridled Mo has been much more successful around 2 turns than one. Gauging Mopotism not an easy task. Good DelCap that will help race get back to G1 status..

Best Value: #1 Teresa Z 10-1
Next Best: #6 Elate 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Unbridled Mo 5-2
Super Add: #3 Mopotism 9-2

BEL 9th: Forbidden Apple, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #1 Mr Havercamp 8-1
Next Best: #2 Disco Partner 9-5
Exotics Use: #6 Pocket Change 6-1
Super Add: #5 Blind Ambition 8-1

P4 Grid:

DEL 8: 2-5-9 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 1-7 (C)
BEL 8: 1-9 (A), – (B), 2-3-5-8 (C)
DEL 9: 1-5-6 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
BEL 9: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$50k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Wise Strike 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Majestic Won 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #8 Her Latest Film 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 St Edmond’s Girl 10-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Spectacular Plum 5-2 3rdd
Next Best: #7 Congruity 3-1 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Year of the Kitten 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Steelerfanforlife 8-1 2nd

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Was going to SCR our Carlisle Belle from this tough spot, but she’s been waiting to run for 3 weeks and with nothing available the rest of BEL and in the first book at SAR, are now likely to go. Will try to settle early, come with one run into a potentially collapsing pace and pick up a little something. $40k/N2L at SAR mid meet her appropriate target..

Best Value: #10 Salty Smile 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Pink Twist 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Puffery 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Pas de Deuce 8-1 5th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Blurred Line 2-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Phone Funky Munky 6-1 6th
Next Best #5 Ides of Arch 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Gotham’s Storm 6-1 7th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #3 Gucci Factor 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1 Rapt 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Harlan’s Hunch 7-2 7th
Super Add: #4 Morocco 10-1 6th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f

Half the field are first time starters complicating this picture as 1-2 probably run well. Inclined to lean on those with experience..

Most Likely: #2 Leap to Glory 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Our American Star 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Shuffling Madness 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Ragnar Lothbrok 8-1 6th

P6 Grid:

4: 6 (A), – (B), 5-8 (C)
5: 2-7(A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
6: 5-10 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-6 (A), – (B), 2-3-5-7 (C)
8: 1-3(A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 2(A), 3-5 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x $2 = $32

P5 Grid:

5: 2-7 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
6: 5-10 (A), – (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 4-6 (A), – (B), 2-3-5-7 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), 5 (B), 1-4-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x.50 = $16

P4 Grid:

6: 5-10 (A), 3-7 (B), 1-2-4-8(C)
7: 4-5-6 (A), – (B), 2-3-7 (C)
8: 1-3(A), – (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), 1-4-8 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x.50 = $18

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 101st Dwyer (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

New York soph standard draws 15% of the Derby field among 7 runners with Noble Indy & Firenze Fire getting back to what they like to do best. Mendelssohn merits respect, but who says a one turn mile is his thing? And isn’t this a step towards bigger goals? Rugbyman looks to take next logical step. Seven Trumpets last was very good. Fixedincome Larry need only improve a couple more lengths to get a slice of the super or even the tri. Fun, intriguing version of this race which started as the Brooklyn Derby and now honors the Dwyer Brothers who fashioned one of the great 19th century stables with horses like Hindoo, Tremont, Kingston and Hanover..

Best Value: #4 Noble Indy 7-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Mendelssohn 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Rugbyman 2-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Fixedincome Larry 20-1 6th

7th: 11th Belmont Sprint (G2), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Six pack field is separated by 2 lengths or so on paper making this a tricky proposition. There isn’t open-mouthed, run off speed signed on offering one of the front-end types (Lulu, Shaft, Lewisfield) a chance to shake loose. Limousine Liberal looks for the same effort he turned in at Churchill 2 back..

Best Value: #5 Lewisfield 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Limousine Liberal 9-5 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Favorable Outcome 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Eye Luv Lulu 8-1 3rd

8th: 40th Belmont Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Nice mix of gals assembled from across the US and UK. Tractable Toinette and pace dominant Significant Form are 2 I’m looking for to get through the multis. Capla Temptress, Thewayiam, Fatale Bere & Mighty Scarlett offer exotics price boost potential..

Most Likely: #5 Toinette 5-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Significant Form 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Thewayiam 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Fatale Bere 20-1 6th

9th: 132nd Suburban (G2), 4+, 10f (P3, DD)

10 days ago, there was a question of whether this race would be embarrassingly weak. Instead, it’s crazily competitive and compelling. Diversify will pace set with Dr. Dorr chasing and it feels like those in the stalker/closer mode will have every opportunity to corral them..

Best Value: #8 Hoppertunity 9-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Tapwrit 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 War Story 5-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Take Your Guns 8-1 7th

10th: 69th Belmont Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f-IT (DD)

Euros involved here make the boys event a more difficult read. Certainly Analyze It remains the horse to beat despite odd stretch miscue in the Pennine Ridge when Catholic Boy rallied to beat him. As I mentioned during the Stats Race Lens webinar, I wish had a better feel for this..

Most Likely: #3 Analyze It 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hunting Horn 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Catholic Boy 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Super Add: #5 Maraud 12-1 6th

P5 Grid:

6: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 1-2-5-7(C)
7: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-4 (B), – (C)
8: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), – (B), 2-5-7 (C)
10: 3 (A), 4 (B), 5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-4 (B), – (C)
8: 1-5 (A), – (B), 4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 2-5-7 (B), (C)
10: 3-4-7(A), – (B), 5-6-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A’s: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #4 Ghost Giant 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dream Passage 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #12 Dove Shoot 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Wild William 10-1 3rd

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 104th American Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f-T ()

Secretariat prep has very little pace. Ezmosh is just OK and not a horse I want at 5-2, but he does figure to be controlling speed. Captivating Moon is 8-5 and won’t get much of a set up. Rooting for highly capable Michelle Lovell who has turned $30k claim Dubby Dubbie into a real racehorse..

Best Value: #4 Dubby Dubbie 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Tap Daddy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Captivating Moon 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ezmosh 5-2 7th

6th: 62nd Modesty H. (G3), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Beverly D prep finds strong fave Daddy’s Lil Darling heavily weighted and outposted. Might not matter..

Most Likely: #13 Daddy’s Lil Darling 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #4 Celestial Insight 5-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Sully’s Dream 12-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #6 Hallie Belle 8-1 3rd

7th: 13th Hatoof, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Go Noni Go 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Madame Milan 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Cool Beans 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Rahway 20-1 10th

8th: 87th Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Arklow 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Harlan Strong 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Canessar 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Nessy 9-2 5th

9th: 83rd Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #7 Western Elegance 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Synchrony 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Compass Zone 8-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Divisidero 2-1 WON ($7.00)

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Cloche 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Avery A. 10-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Blessed Union 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Gwendalyn Sue 7-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Valy’s Vengeance 10-1 6th

P5 Grid:

6: 13(A), 4-11 (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 1-2-11 (A), – (B), 3-4-8 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
9: 3-4-7 (A), – (B), 8-11(C)
10: 1-5 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x3x2 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A’s: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-11 (A), – (B), 3-4-8 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 5-9 (B), – (C)
9: 3-4-7 (A), – (B), 8-11(C)
10: 1-5 (A), – (B), 2-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: HCP, F&M-3+, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$860k Closing Day P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Princess Dorian 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Princess Ashlyn 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Coronado Cool 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Be a Lady 3-1 WON ($5.20)

7th: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Vasilika 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #8 Quebec 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Miss Boom Boom 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Melissa Jane 4-1 2nd

8th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Thalia 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Just Grazed Me 8-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #2 Chasin Lucas 5-2 Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Coco Kisses 3-1 4th

9th: 56th Wilshire (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Sophie P 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Sassy Little Lila 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Ancient Secret 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Beau Recall 7-2 4th

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Desert Law 6-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #2 Best Two Minutes 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Aristocratic 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 River Echo 4-1 5th

11th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Beach View 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ann Arbor Eddie 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Ya Gotta Wanna 8-1 –
Exotics Use: #2 Unapologetic 4-1 WON ($14.80)
Hi-5 Play: #6 Oscar Dominguez 6-1 –

P6 Grid:

6: 5-7 (A), 1-8(B), 2-6 (C)
7: 6(A), – (B), 1-4-8 (C) ~ (2-3)
8: 5 (A), 8(B), 2-6 (C) ~ (3-7)
9: 2-5-9 (A), – (B), 1-7-8 (C)
10: 2-3(A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 5 (A), 1 (B), 2-3-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 2x1x1x4x2x1 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

8: 5-8(A), 2-6 (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 2-5-9 (A), 1-7-8 (B), – (C)
10: 2-3(A), – (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 1-2-3-5 (A), – (B), 6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-4 (8/7/3/2) Paid $360.50