3/10: Aqueduct (7th-10th); Santa Anita (4th-11th)
Saturday, March 10th, 2018AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: 63rd Stymie, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Treacherous start to the all stakes P4. Hit It Once More will make the lead but is going to face more pace pressure than in Haynesfield win. Davis will want to maneuver Harlan Punch (back on shortest rest yet) to Hit It’s outside and we’ll see how much of a duel develops. 10-1 Fellowship comes to town and should enjoy an excellent stalking trip outside the pacesetters. The rest of the field will get opportunities to make their runs and entire group is separated by less than 3 lengths on paper..
Most Likely: #5 Watershed 6-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Fellowship 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Securitiz 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Vulcan’s Forge 5-2 6th
8th: 5th Heavenly Prize, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)
SCR of Bishop’s Pond changes this quite a bit. Divine Miss Grey can likely control pace now..
Most Likely: #3 Highway Star 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Divine Miss Grey 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Holiday Disguise 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Boule 4-1 4th
9th: 43rd Tom Fool (G3), 4+, 6f (X-C P4-See below San Felipe, DD)
Most in this excellent edition of the Tom Fool have a similar near the lead style, making for a bit of a scrambled picture. And unless someone gets aggressive, millionaire Favorite Tale SCRATCHED becomes a wire threat in his 7yo debut. As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, Skyler’s Scramjet is the now horse and should be in striking distance throughout. Great Stuff has been brilliantly developed by the Jacobson barn over the last 18 months and looms large out of the Toboggan win. Typically needs pace in front of him. Spartiatis was put into the race earlier in his first start with Rudy and can impact with any of his mid-90’s Beyer efforts. Really fun Tom Fool.
Enormous SCR of Favorite Tale softens pace up markedly..
Most Likely: #5 Skyler’s Scramjet 9-2 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #3 Great Stuff 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Spartiatis 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Threefiveindia 5-1 7th
10th: 66th Gotham (G3), 3yo, 1m
Ron Lombardi (Mr. Amore) wants to get to the Derby with Firenze Fire (5-2) and wraps up a slot with 1-2 finish today. Was noble gutting out Withers placement last month, but it’s his one turn efforts in the Jerome & Champagne that stamp him the key player today returning to this elongated sprint configuration. Florida invaders Free Drop Billy (9-5) & Enticed (7-2) deserving of attention and respect certainly, but I’d like to work 8-1 Beautiful Shot & 15-1 Whereshetoldmetogo into pay slots and both have merit. Calumet ridgling Beautiful Shot makes 3yo debut here for Desormeaux, kept great company as a 2yo and his Feb. 24th :59.4 bullet (1/64) over heavy Santa Anita surface is a flare. MD-bred Whereshetoldmetogo, from capable Anthony Pecararo, is a closing sprinter type that will have plenty of pace to chase and his efforts one and three back fit with this set..
Most Likely: #5 Firenze Fire 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Beautiful Shot 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Free Drop Billy 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Enticed 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #4 Whereshetoldmetogo 15-1 5th
P4 Grid:
7: 5-7 (A), 1-2-6 (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), – (B), 5-6-7 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 4-10 (B), 1-2-6-7 (C)
10: 3-5-6-9 (A), – (B), 1-4 (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x2x4x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A’s: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
$0.50 Pick-4 (2/1,2,4,8/5,9/9) Paid $85.50
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
WEATHER: It appears that nothing is going to stop a certain amount of rain here this afternoon. Kilroe and China Doll figure to stay on turf, but guessing all others (1st-3rd-11th) come off. In addition to the turf issue, Mick Ruis has said he’ll SCR Bolt d’Oro if the main track is sloppy, so we’ll have to wait that decision out until about noon Pacific. (It’s 7:15a PT now). Will do the best I can to keep everyone apprised of where things stand as the afternoon unfolds..
4th: 67th Triple Bend (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)
Race shape-shitted at entry time but remains interesting, even with departure of Giant Expectations for Big Cap. Emergent Edwards Going Left could kick off a big afternoon for Kosta Hronis & John Sadler who also have Ketos in the 7th, Marvelous Max in the 9th and Accelerate in the featured 10th..
Most Likely: #1 Edwards Going Left 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 City of Light 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Captain Scotty 5-2 4th
5th: 18th Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)
World Approval was going to be formidable not matter what, but cut in the ground from rain only enhances him further. Bowies Hero (6-1), Next Shares (8-1), Om (5-1) & Channel Maker (5-1) are all quality division players..
Most Likely: #5 World Approval 4-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Next Shares 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Om 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Bowies Hero 6-1 WON ($18.60)
6th: 81st San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)
$34,506 P6 C/O starts here..
Looks like Round 1 of at least a 2 part series between McKinzie and returning Bolt d’Oro. Have to wait for Ruis decision about running, but assuming he goes, McKinzie owns a distinct recency edge. After the top pair and knowing what we already do about Lombo and Kanthaka, Ayacara and Aquila feel like the ones with upside. Peace is trying to right the ship after blinker fiasco..
Most Likely: #4 McKinzie 8-5 2nd-DQ’d from WIN
Next Best: #1 Bolt d’Oro 2-1 WON ($4.40)-Up from 2nd
Best Value: #3 Ayacara 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Kanthaka 4-1 3rd
X-Country P4 Grid:
AQ 9 (5:12p): 3-4-5-10 (A), 1-2-6-7 (B), 8 (C)
SA 5 (5:14p): 5 (A), – (B), 2-3-7-8 (C)
AQ 10 (5:42p): 5-6-9 (A), 1-3-4 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
SA 6 (5:53p): 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 8x1x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 4x1x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)
$0.50 Pick-4 (5,9/2/9/1) Paid $514.25 (A-C-A-A)
7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #3 Allaboutaction 5-1 WON ($18.00)
Next Best: #4 Big League 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Coils Gold 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Sigur Ros 15-1 4th
8th: 15th China Doll, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)
Best Value: #6 Finess Bere 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Ms Bad Behavior 7-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Treasuring 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Ippodamia’s Girl 3-1 11th
9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)
Most Likely: #12 Liberty Jack 3-1
Best Value: #3 Celebrate Life 6-1
Next Best: #11 Bitte 4-1
Exotics Use: #10 Gator Don’t Play 20-1
Super/Hi-5: #4 Rocky’s Show 8-1 WON ($)
10th: 81st Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 12f (DD, Hi-5)
Might not be your Grandpa’s Big Cap, but it’s a competitive group and an interesting equation. Giant Expectations decision adds pace to the undertaking and given that the 10f is a major question, helps the stalkers and late runners. Accelerate should enjoy first run with Baffert pair (Hoppertunity/Mubtaahij) in hot pursuit. Top of the Game (10-1) is a post hype upset candidate sucking along inside with Desormeaux and hard-trying Fear the Cowboy always puts forth an effort..
Most Likely: #7 Accelerate 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Hoppertunity 7-2 Late SCR-Surface status
Best Value: #1 Top of the Game 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Fear the Cowboy 3-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #8 Mubtaahij 4-1 2nd
11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-OFF THE TURF (Hi-5)
Most Likely: #5 Rancor 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Hope Wins 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #12 Curlin’s Journey 6-1 5th
P6 Grid:
6: 1-4 (A), – (B), 3-8 (C)
7: 3-4-6 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
8: 1-6 (A), 2-9 (B), – (C)
9: 12 (A), – (B), 3-11 (C)
10: 7 (A), 5/SCR (B), 1-6-8 (C)
11: 3/SCR (A), 12 (B), 1-5-11/SCR (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 2x3x2x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24
$2 Pick-6 (1/3/1,4/4/5,7/ALL) Paid $23.60 (5 OF 6)
P4 Grid:
8: 1-2-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 12 (A), – (B), 3-11 (C)
10: 5/SCR–7 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 2-3-4 (C)
11: 3/SCR-5-11/SCR (A), 1-12 (B), 2-8-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A’s: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)