BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Forever in Love 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Intensity 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Cloontia 7-2 6th
Super Add: #1e Mott entry 5-2 5th/7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Midnight Notes 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Xaverian 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Frogman Mel 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Little Jerry 5-1 7th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 B Three 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Love You Babe 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Ginned Up 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 E Warfare 12-1 WON ($12.60)

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rudy entry 5-2 2nd/6th
Next Best: #2 Hot House Rose Late SCR
Best Value: #7 Conquest Superstep 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Highway Star 7-2 WON ($4.30)

9th: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Best Value: #6 Liddyup 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Tiz Paradise 7-2 5th
7Exotics Use: #8 Tailoredforsuccess 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Conquest Lucknlove 5-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

6: 5-9 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-5 (C)
8: 1-2/SCR (A), – (B), 7-8 (C)
9: 4-6-8 (A), – (B), 1-3-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

If things go his way, talented Trevor McCarthy could be in store for a career day..

4th: Brookmeade-R, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Secret Or Not 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Complete St. 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Skipalute 9-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Magician’s Vanity 6-1 5th

5th: Commonwealth Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Tricky group with Motion’s It’s the Truth (15-1) the lynchpin up front. Could forget to stop. Involuntary (10-1) will follow her and feels like a viable key horse getting first run. Stella Rose, My Impression and Noble Beauty are the obvious short price players.

Most Likely: #9 Stella Rose 5-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Involuntary 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 My Impression 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Noble Beauty 4-1 2nd

6th: Commonwealth Turf Cup (G2), 3+, 1m-T (Rainbow P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Blacktype 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #12 Force the Pass 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Phlash Phelps 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Farhaan 6-1 5th

7th: Commonwealth Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Revved Up 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Deeply Undervalued 6-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #10 Isotherm 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 American Patriot 5-2 4th

P4 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), – (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 9-10 (A), 5-6-7 (B), 1 (C)
6: 7 (A), 10-12 (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 2-10 (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Late P5 starts here..

On Tap won’t be 8-1..

Most Likely: #7 On Tap 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Core Portfolio 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Altar Boy 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #11 Show Bound 6-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mission Driven 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Patterson Cross 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Zennor 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Hunter O’Reily 8-1 3rd

8th: 29th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mrs. McDougal 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #6 Zindaya 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Stormy Victoria 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 My Sweet Girl 15-1 4th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Brutally tough turf sprint with gaggle of hard-hitting claimers. 5-2 Speeding Comet had something go wrong upstate. Will use defensively given favorite’s unsettling gap in tab..

Most Likely: #1 Rapscallion 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Whateveryouwant 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 The Imposter 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Speeding Comet 5-2 4th

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #6 Sea Pebble 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #2 Palladian Bridge 5-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), 9-11 (B), – (C)
7: 1-2-4 (A), – (B), 5-7-10 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 6-7-8 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-4 (A), 5-7-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
8: 5 (A), 6-7 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), 5-7 (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

PHILADELPHIA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Frosted (PA Derby Champion) S., 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #7 Tale of Life 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Encryption 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Jordan 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Cyrus Alexander 6-1 WON ($5.60)

9th: Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Noholdingback Bear 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #11 Who’s Out 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Threefiveindia 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mind Your Biscuits 9-2 2nd

10th: 50th Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

The place to go aggressively against Songbird is going to be the Distaff. Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia rock solid, but what’s different today that elevates them over Songbird here?

Most Likely: #5 Songbird 1-2 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Carina Mia 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cathryn Sophia 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Land Over Sea 10-1 4th

11th: 40th Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Fascinating edition that should result in AGSC giving event elusive G1 as 1-2-3 from Derby, 1-3-4 from Haskell, 5 exiting Travers & King’s Bishop and more assemble. Plenty of pace signed on, but be aware that speed holds well here and outside paths the ideal trip. Hard-trying Gun Runner has right style and launching point. Hit It Once More has pilot who knows his way around this oval and can impact with same stalk and go trip he employed in May at Belmont. Sunny Ridge ran well off long break in Haskell and should be first to attack from second flight under deadly rally pilot Bravo. Nyquist enters off throwback worktab featuring series of mile drills and may be ready for best. Cupid and Summer Revolution, possibly Awesome Slew, figure to set fast pace and any could get dangerous if somehow loose..

Most Likely: #7 Gun Runner 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Hit It Once More 20-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Nyquist 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Sunny Ridge 12-1 11th

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
9: 5-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 4-7-10 (C)
10: 5 (A), – (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 7-9-10-12 (A), 1-2-3-5 (B), 4-6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x8 = 128 x .50 = $64

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$106k DBL C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 Sunrise Kitty 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Sweetpollypurebred 4-1 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #2 Reversiontothemean 15-1
Exotics Use: #8 Magsamelia 7-2 6th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Wake Island 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Homeland Security 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Warrior Hall 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Thunderon the Nile 5-1 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Mo Maverick 5-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Calculated Risker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Mr. Buff 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Conquest Prankster 8-1 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Nominal Dollars 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Prime Time Man 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Lost Iron 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Baduke 12-1 6th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5-IT (DD)

Best Value: #9 Flattermefabulous 5-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #2 Table for Six 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Somerset Sandy 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Queen of Castle 4-1 6th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Votre Coeur 8-5 4th
Best Value: #6 Octacato 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #9 Little Mary Ellen 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Saratoga by Design 20-1 8th

P6 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4 (C)
5: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-8 (C)
6: 3 (A), 7 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 9 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
8: 2-9 (A), – (B), 3-5-6-8 (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

P4 Grid:

6: 3-7 (A), 1-9-11 (B), – (C)
7: 6-7-8-9 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 4 (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 3-8 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 3 (A), – (B), 1-6-9-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x7x4x1 = 140 x .50 = $70

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nicely matched NYB turfers with honest pace seemingly assured..

Most Likely: #3 Mr Harlan 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Prophet’s Cat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Lead by Example 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 The J Y 15-1 WON ($19.40)

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Terrific set of hard-htting state breds with more than half turning back from routes. Jet Black gets back to one turn at oval where he rolled through Spring..

Most Likely: #2 Jet Black 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 West Hills Giant 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Beyond the Green 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Get Jets 5-2 5th

9th: 22nd Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Don’t see how you easily eliminate any of these 7. You can rate the Lake Placid (Diamond Fields, Elysea’s World) ahead of the Boiling Springs (Galileo’s Song, Tin Type Gal), though Tin Type ran sneaky well from impossible post in the G1 DMR Oaks. On Leave and Al Jazi are fresh faces and Noble Beauty is hard to toss on connections (Brown, Castellano) alone. Pace points to On Leave potentially cruising up front. Diamond Fields and Al Jazi likely chase..

Most Likely: #5 On Leave 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #6 Elysea”s World 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Tin Type Gal 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Diamond Fields 4-1 2nd

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Leaveematthegate 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Light the Vow 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Bushmill Giant 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Paddy’s Crown 8-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

7: 1-3 (A), 4-8 (B), 6-7 (C)
8: 2-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 6 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), – (B), 4-6-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Dream Seeker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Curlino 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Done Deal 9-2 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #9 Handy Candy 15-1 9th

8th: 35th Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lookin At Lee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Not This Time 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #2 Honor Thy Father 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Blame Will 4-1 7th

9th: 8th Open Mind, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Spelling Again 2-1 5th
Next Best: #9 I’m a Looker 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Fioretti 8-1 WON ($30.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Kathballu 5-1 7th

10th: 48th Pocahontas (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ever So Clever 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Bling On the Music 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jet Away Sue 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Dream Dancing 5-2 4th

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Farrell 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Lovely Bernadette 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Best Value: #6 Champagne Problems 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 No More Babies 15-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Racey Reecey 5-1 7th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), 12 (B), 2-3-9-10-11 (C)
8: 1-8 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 9-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), 4-6 (B), 7-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x2x2x2x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)

P4 Grid:

8: 1-8 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), – (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 9-10 (C)
11: 3-4-6 (A), 7-10 (B), 12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$40k P6 C/O starts here..

Irksome start to P6 sequence with 2 imports muddying the waters. All but the #1 appear capable..

Most Likely: #6 Chicadoro 2-1
Next Best: #2 Texting 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Earing 9-5
Super Add: #3 Sherini 6-1

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

OK group for $25k with Show Giant dangerous on lead if left alone. I’ll keep trying with Ellenvelyn..

Best Value: #6 Ellenvelyn 7-2
Next Best: #1 Imflatoutsweet 8-5
Exotics Use: #2 Show Giant 8-1
Super Add: #8 Wantagh Queen 5-1

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

3 firsters, 3 second outs and $560k Kosta Hronis buy #5 Agronomy (running under John Sadler’s name) making initial run against fellow state-breds..

Most Likely: #7 J.J. Jake 2-1
Next Best: #8 James Lane 3-1
Best Value: #4 Adirondack Dream 30-1
Exotics Use: #6 Danebury 7-2

7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Excellent, competitive group..

Most Likely: #9 Sunset Knoll 3-1
Next Best: #1 Hold Me Down 8-1
Best Value: #11 Fiesty Valentina 10-1
Exotics Use: #5 Saratoga Smoke 6-1

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #7 I Hope You Dance 6-1
Next Best: #6 Barrier to Entry 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 Lulu’s Blues 3-1
Super Add: #13 Krista’s Persona 8-1

9th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #5 Virga 7-2
Best Value: #11 Warm Springs 15-1
Next Best: #10 Onlytheshadowknows 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Trading Stock 4-1

P6 Grid:

4: 6 (A), – (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 2-8 (B), – (C)
6: 7-8 (A), – (B), 4-5-6 (C)
7: 1-9 (A), 5-11 (B), 4-8 (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 5-11 (A), 10 (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32

P4 Grid:

6: 7-8 (A), 4-5-6 (B), – (C)
7: 1-9-11 (A), 4-5-8 (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 5-10-11 (A), 1-6 (B), 6-9-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x6x1x4 = 120 x $.50 = $60
All A’s: 2x3x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve