AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 G Munning 1-1
Best Value: #1 Blue Plate Special 10-1
Next Best: #4 Good Rapport 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Hatch 10-1

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$24k P6 C/O starts here and it’s not an easy group to figure out..

Most Likely: #3 Printrack 7-2
Next Best: #2 Ego Man 3-1
Exotics Use: #1a Big Engine 8-5
Super Add: #5 Air Show 6-1

5th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dontbelate 9-2
Next Best: #2 Winning Drive 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Critical Threat 4-1
Super Add: #4 Joker Boy 6-1

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Good Reunion 9-5
Next Best: #2 Caldo Candy 3-1
Best Value: #7 Flip’s Dream 6-1
Exotics Use: ##4 Rollin in Dough 9-2

P4 Grid:

3: 2 (A), – (B), 1 (C)
4: 1-2-3-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1-2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 1x4x2x3 = 24 x $1.50 = $36 ($12 for .50)
Backup (C-A-A-A): 1x4x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1 in 3rd)

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD) ~ Cross Country Leg A

Most Likely: #6 Awesome Native 5-2
Best Value: #2 Victorious Wave 8-1
Next Best: #8 Trafalgar 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Twenty Four Mamba 10-1

Cross Country P5 Grid:

AQ 7: 2-6 (A), – (B), 8-9 (C)
AQ 8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
OP 8: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
OP 9: 2-6 (A), 7-10 (B), – (C)
OP 10: 7-9-11 (A), 1-6-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (8-9 in AQ 7)

8th: Garland of Roses, F&M-3+, 6f (DD) ~ Cross Country Leg B

Best Value: #4 You Look Cold 6-1
Next Best: #7 Hot Fudge 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Olga Isabel 5-2

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f

Most Likely: #6 Scarlet’s Dream 3-1
Next Best: #8 Photo Finish 4-1
Best Value: #2 Call Her Bluff 6-1
Exotics Use: #7 Fabulous Fox 4-1

P6 Grid:

4: 3 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
5: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
7: 2-6 (A), – (B), 8-9 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x3x2x3x2 = $72
All A’s: 1x2x1x2x3x2 = $24
Backup (C-A-A-A-A-A): 1x2x1x2x3x2 = $24 (2 in 4th)
Backup (A-A-A-C-A-A): 1x2x1x2x3x2 = $24 (8-9 in 7th)

P5 Grid:

5: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), – (C)
7: 2-6-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x4x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-6-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Ring the Bell, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Sir Wellington 12-1
Next Best: #6 Tejano Twist 8-5
Exotics Use: #7 Ryvit 2-1
Super Add: #1 Osbourne 5-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Megan’s Honor 3-1
Best Value: #4 Underhill’s Tab 9-2
Next Best: #5 Halmstead 5-2
Exotics Use: #10 Circle Back Jack 6-1

8th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD) ~ Cross Country Leg C

Most Likely: #4 Orange Diablo 7-5
Best Value: #5 Mikealicious 12-1
Next Best: #11 Imperial Gun 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Speedtail 12-1

9th: Mistletoe, F&M-3+, 1m (DD) ~ Cross Country Leg D

Most Likely: #2 Misty Veil 9-2
Next Best: #6 Coastal Charm 9-2
Exotics Use: #10 Ice Orchid 7-2
Super Add: #7 Effortlesslyelgant 12-1

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f ~ Cross Country Leg E

Most Likely: #7 W W Scout’s Honor 3-1
Next Best: #11 Gunflash 4-1
Best Value: #9 Affable Monarch 12-1
Exotics Use: #12 Spend Benjamins 5-1

P5 Grid:

6: 1-6-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-6 (A), – (B), 7-10 (C)
10: 7-11 (A), 9-12 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A’s: 4x2x1x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 4x2x1x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (7-10 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

7: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), – (C)
8: 4 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 4-6 (A), – (B), 7-10 (C)
10: 7-9-11-12 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x4 = $32
All A’s: 2x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (A-A-C-A): 2x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8 (7-10 in 9th)

Good luck!
Steve

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MCLM, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 In a Minute 4-1
Best Value: #5 Seba M 9-2
Next Best: #3 Drinking Solo 7-2
Exotics Use: #7 Neptune Beach 5-1

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$35k C/O starts here and it’s a tricky way to kick off daunting sequence..

Most Likely: #6 Brooklyn Diamonds 3-1
Best Value: #7 Cloud Forest 8-1
Next Best: #5 Mandatory 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Stjames 6-1

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Rocco Strong 5-1
Best Value: #2 Power Seeker 8-1
Next Best: #3 Overstep 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Ocean’s Reserve 5-1

7th: Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Dave Grening on ATR, Life Talk not any more accomplished (or faster) than several here. Respect, but don’t fear. Vino Rouge has look of filly that will relish the 9f trip and that’s what you try to look for in Demoiselle/Remsen value candidates. Most of All broke through in off/turf romp last and at 15-1 feels too good to leave off. Shimmering Allure has number power to impact significantly, but has already done a lot of developing..

Most Likely: #5 Vino Rouge 8-1
Best Value: #4 Most of All 15-1
Next Best: #3 Life Talk 8-5
Exotics Use: #7 Shimmering Allure 7-2

P4 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 4-5 (B), – (C)
6: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

8th: Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Dr B back for Wand title defense, but Butchy’s enigmatic mare wired that edition and hasn’t won since going 6f-7f. Good Sam gets beneficial outside open air box (‘where the air is fresh and clear’) and isn’t favored..

Most Likely: #7 Good Sam 5-2
Best Value: #2 Dr. B 4-1
Next Best: #6 Gerrymander 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tizzy in the Sky 7-2

9th: Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

As said to Nick Tammaro Friday, ‘Who can’t win?’ Ultra competitive group lines up with what looks like a square pace and there is no reason to not reach for price players. Klaravich home bred Domestic Product (10-1) broke his MDN at 9f and is 10-1 with Chad value pilot Franco. $250k Al Gold buy Drum Roll Please (10-1) ran into tough cookies en route to diploma last out. Copper Tax (10-1) invades from Maryland for Gary Capuano on a 5 race skein and looks tractable. Where’s Chris (6-1) fastest coming in looking turfy long-term (Twirling Candy o/o LDK mare), but won Nashua when tested for stamina by red hot Dutrow. Mage full brother Dornoch logical candidate for Gargan off 8.5f MDN-breaker. Terrific running of the Remsen that serves as front half of Late Double that could be explosive..

Best Value: #2 Domestic Product 10-1
Next Best: #8 Where’s Chris 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Copper Tax 10-1
Super Add: #5 Drum Roll Please 10-1

10th: Cigar Mile (G2), 3+, 1m

“No stars, just talent” ~ Michael Tolkin, The Player..

Completely inscrutable gathering that pits variety of quality horseflesh from many points on the compass. Latch on to a concept and take your flyer. For me it’s adept Jeff Runco marauding from Charles Town with streaking and versatile Coastal Mission (12-1) who has won 9 of his last 10 and is sure to be ignored. Sharpened for his speed with bullet halves after proving capable three-turning 9 panels in the WVa Breeders Classic, Coastal Mission & Bocachica can set up shop on the rail with or behind the other speed. If no one wants the point, he can take control or be effective rating inside as he did in the Russell Road two back. Beyond this notion, quite a few prices have looks including easy-to-root-for Three Technique..

Best Value: #1 COASTAL MISSION 12-1
Next Best: #7 Three Technique 8-1
Exotics Use: #12 Pipeline 15-1
Super Add: #6 High Oak 20-1

P6 Grid:

5: 6-7 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 6 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
8: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), – (B), 5-9 (C)
10: 1 (A), – (B), 7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x2x1 = $96
All A’s: 2x1x2x2x2x1 = $16
Backup (C-A-A-A-A-A): 2x1x2x2x2x1 = $16 (4-5 in 5th)
Backup (A-A-A-A-C-A): 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $16 (5-9 in 9th)
Backup (A-A-A-A-A-C): 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32 (7-12 in 10th)

P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
8: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 5-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7 (A), – (B), 6-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A’s: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (A-A-A-A-C): 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (6-10-12 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
8: 2-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 5-9 (B), – (C)
10: 1-7-12 (A), – (B), 6-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-A-A-C): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6-10-11 in 10th)

Good luck!
Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: NY-CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Always Charming 7-2
Next Best: #1 Bustin Shout 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Tommy Gun 7-2
Super Add: #7 Quickflash 4-1

4th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

P6 starts here and lotsa droppers complicate the decision-making..

Most Likely: #4 Life Changer 5-2
Next Best: #2e Kantarmaci entry 2-1
Best Value: #5 Jeff Fa Fa 6-1
Exotics Use: #3e Baker entry 3-1

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Vintage 9-5
Best Value: #5 Embraceable Gal 6-1
Next Best: #2 Accel Rose 5-2
Exotics Use: 8 Just a Nyquist 7-2

6th: OC/S-ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Guanare 7-2
Next Best: #4 Iridescent 9-2
Exotics Use: #3 Two’s a Crowd 9-2

P4 Grid:

3: 1-3-4 (A), – (B), – (C)
4: 2-3-4-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

All A’s: 3x4x1x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Pit Boss 5-1
Next Best: #9 Big Engine 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Brazillionaire 7-2
Super Add: #1 Winning Drive 10-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f (DD)

Best Value: #9 Suerte 5-1
Next Best: #1 Leading Contender 9-5
Exotics Use: #3 Mistical Curlin 6-1
Super Add: #2 Bold Victory 12-1

9th: MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 6.5f

Most Likely: #4 Wild Jaime 3-1
Best Value: #7 Piccolo Diavolo 10-1
Next Best: #2 Crown That Saint 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 My Man Woody 6-1

P6 Grid:

4: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), – (C)
5: 1 (A), – (B), – (C)
6: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
8: 1-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x2x2x3 = $96
All A’s: 2x1x2x1x2x3 = $24

P5 Grid:

5: 1 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
6: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-9 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)
8: 1-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 1x2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-9 (A), 1-6 (B), – (C)
8: 1-9 (A), 2-3 (B), – (C)
9: 2-4-7 (A), – (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

Good luck!
Steve

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 1m (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Who Dey 10-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #8 Mystik Dan 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Bergen 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Informed Patriot 3-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Looks to have the makings of a productive race with well bred types stretching out..

Most Likely: #6 Lat Long 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Track Phantom 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #3 Mr. Faversham 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Top Gun Rocket 9-2 8th

9th: Ed Brown, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

If Booth runs back to debut, they’re all running for 2nd..

Most Likely: #9 Booth 7-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Normandy Hero 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Molly’s Town 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Just Steel 6-1 WON ($27.08)

10th: Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Torpedo Anna dominant so far in 2 starts and way the filly to beat, but note she makes her 3rd start in 4 weeks. Cox pair (Gin Gin/West Sunset) and Walsh;s Intricate are the other players..

Most Likely: #8 Torpedo Anna 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Intricate 6-1 WON ($14.66)
Next Best: #7 West Sunset 2-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Gin Gin 8-1 5th

11th: KY Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Stretch Ride 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Dancing Groom 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Awesome Road 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Risk It 5-2 4th

12th: Fern Creek, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Youalmosthadme 8-5 WON ($3.56)
Best Value: #2 Fibber 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Halina’s Forte 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Irish Maxima 12-1 10th

P5 Grid:

8: 6-7 (A), 3-11 (B), – (C)
9: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
12: 1 (A), – (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4x1 = 144 X .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-A-C): 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2 in 12th)

P4 Grid:

9: 3-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-7-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), – (C)
12: 1 (A), 2 (B), 4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2 = 72 X .50 = $36
All A’s: 3x3x2x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (A-A-A-C): 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-12 in 12th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Tanya Showers 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Aunt Fannie 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Sweet Gal of Mine 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Route Sixty Six 30-1 10th

9th: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Nicely matched group of soph gals. Look for late developers at this time of year..

Most Likely: #6 Corningstone 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 The Alys Look 9-5 WON ($13.28)
Best Value: #7 Secret Statement 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Punchbowl 2-1 3rd

10th: Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Stays on the grass and should be very competitive..

Best Value: #9 Safeen 8-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Heavenly Sunday 7-2 WON ($4.82)
Exotics Use: #3 Neecie Marie 4-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Callie’s Grit 12-1 4th

11th: Clark (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

This is a really fun race and I’m not taking the short price on First Mission who needs to improve (and improve a fair amount) to win..

Best Value: #1 Straight Arrow 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Gasoline 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Il Miracolo 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Stage Raider 12-1 9th

12th: MSW-R, F&M-3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Devilish nightcap/anchor leg..

Best Value: #3 Animal Fries 6-1 WON ($12.52)
Next Best: #5 Stagflation 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Eyes of Gold 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Imperator Furiosa 4-1 9th

P5 Grid:

8: 3-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
10: 9-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 2-9-10 (B), – (C)
12: 3 (A), – (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-A-C): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-5 in 12th)

P4 Grid:

9: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), – (C)
10: 9-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 2-9-10 (B), – (C)
12: 3-5 (A), – (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-A-A-C): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-8 in 12th)