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Showcase upsets leave $94k C/O

Sunday, October 25th, 2015

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$94k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #10 Swaggy 8-5
Best Value: #9 Smok’n Stroll 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #11 Mia and Molly 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Hundred Year Storm 6-1 3rd

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Colonel Juanita 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Trail Walker 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Liberty Fuze 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #2 My Donna Jean 5-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Awesome Dame 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Truly Bound 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Shayna Lady 2-1 WON ($7.50)
Best Values: #6 She’s Worth It 7th/#5 Nabeelah 15-1 4th

7th: English Channel, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

The excellent 3yo restricted turf races — for both sexes — just don’t let up. What a nice group this is and addition of March only further intrigues. Very quietly, Blame is getting 20% winners on the grass..

Most Likely: #2 Vision Perfect 4-1 5th
Next Best: #9 A Lot 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 High Noon Rider 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 March 5-1 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Style Drift 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #9 Daisycutter 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Smiling Sundae 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Weekend Score 8-1 2nd

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #6 Donatienne 4-1 WON ($20.80)
Best Value: #9 Ranger’s Express 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Sweet Advance 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Madison Blues 5-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Adirondack Luck 8-1 7th

P6 Grid:

4: 10 (A), – (B), 9-11 (C)
5: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
6: 7 (A), 4-8 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
7: 2-9 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), 5-9 (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 11-13 (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x1x4x4 = 144 x $2 = $288

P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 2-5-6-8 (B), (C)
7: 2-9 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-4-6 (C)
8: 1 (A), – (B), 5-9 (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 8-10-11-13 (B), 2-5-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x6 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

Typically exciting card for NY Showcase Day

Saturday, October 24th, 2015

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Tiz a Chance 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Grand Sky 3-1 WON ($8.50)
Best Value: #5 Pop the Hood 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Mr Harlan 12-1 7th

2nd: 19th Sleepy Hollow-NY, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Get Jets 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #6 Sudden Surprise 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Fish Trappe Road 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Forever in Love 8-1 7th

3rd: 38th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Captain Serious 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Palace 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Loki’s Vengence 6-1 6th
Super Add: #8 John’s Island 10-1 7th

4th: 37th Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 La Verdad 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #3 Isabelle 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Tricky Zippy 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Willet 10-1 3rd

5th: 40th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Saratoga Snacks 3-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Empire Dreams 6-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #5 Royal Posse 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Beyond Empire 10-1 8th

P5 Grid:

1: 10 (A), 6 (B), 5-9 (C)
2: 4 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-3-9 (C)
3: 2-9 (A), 1 (B), 7-8 (C)
4: 9 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
5: 3-8 (A), 5 (B), 2-4-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/4/9,10/7,9/8) Paid $128.75

P4 Grid:

2: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-5-8 (C)
3: 2-9 (A), 1 (B), 7-8 (C)
4: 9 (A), 3-8 (B), – (C)
5: 3-8 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/9,10/7,9/8) Paid $19.75

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Watch for the deep AE’s should any draw in..

Most Likely: #9 Ancient Secret 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #11 Lulu’s Blues 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Rossezza 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Cat’s Halo 20-1 12th
Super Add: #4 Pira 20-1 4th

7th: 37th Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Kharafa 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Orino 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Runaway Posse 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Lubash 5-2 WON ($9.10)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Murderously well-matched. Use as many as you can afford..

Most Likely: #11 Full Tap 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Moondance Joy 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Miss Matzoball 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Animal Appeal 5-1 5th

9th: 19th Maid of the Mist-NY, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 She’s All Ready 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Melodic 5-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Trulamo 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Frosty Margarita 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Flatware 15-1 9th

10th: 2nd Empire Distaff-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hot Stones 5-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Wonder Gal 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #10 Carameaway 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Temper Mint Patty 6-1 2nd

11th: 35th Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Swear By It 12-1 3rd-DH
Best Value: #4 Unbelievable Dream 20-1 9th
Next Best: #10 The Tea Cups 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Discreet Marq 8-5 11th
Super Add: #12 Old Harbor 6-1 7th

P4 Grid:

8: 9-11 (A), 1-10 (B) 2-4-7-8 (C)
9: 5-10 (A), 3-6-12 (B), – (C)
10: 8-9 (A), – (B), 5-10 (C)
11: 4-8 (A), 5-10-12 (B), 1-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x5 = 200 x .50 = $100

Big pool for $311k DBL SA C/O

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: Cal-MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$311k DBL P6 C/O starts here..

Inside trio look like the key parties in this juvy dash with Suavemente (8-5) the one to catch and beat. Mulhall strong off freshenings and Collect the Debt (5-2) SCR’D looks to enjoy an up close, inside stalking trip..

Most Likely: #2 Suavemente 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Dixie Writer 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Tribal Touch 15-1 4th

4th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Pecking order again clear with faves Roo’s Valentine and Hurricane Callie obvious along with buzzie firster Lucky to Win. Truman’s Easy Grader (6-1) lured Talamo and was sent as choice in debut. Freshened a bit (20%; $2.11) and gets 7# advantage on field with emerging bug Kennedy..

Most Likely: #6 Lucky to Win 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Easy Grader 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #2 Roo’s Valentine 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hurricane Callie 9-5 3rd

5th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Race may go through Art Sherman with both 0/10 Junior G Man and 0/8 Unusually Big appearing poised for efforts based on Cal Chrome conditioner’s recent success with new acquisitions and the pair’s worktab. AE Lamaan (3-1) SCR’D the one to beat if drawing in and entire field drops in class adding to sense of event’s confusion..

Most Likely: #8 Unusually Big 4-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Junior G Man 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Selection 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Broken Up 2-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Perfect Set gives no indication of letting up and as outlined by Brad Free on ATR, is overqualified for condition. Universal single will take tons of tickets with him if he falters..

Most Likely: #6 Perfect Set 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Ten Carat Rock 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Fancy Shoes 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Knock Em Flat 6-1 6th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 10f-T (DD)

Yes it feels like it’s a sparring match between 9-5 Abbey Vale and 8-5 Wanstead Gardens, but Procurement, Flamboyant and Quick Casablanca all appear well within talent range of the faves. Will be a question of budget for most with top pair alone if you’re working on a small ticket and all to be sure if you can afford it..

Most Likely: #4 Abbey Vale 9-5 4th
Next Best: #2 Wanstead Gardens 8-5 6th
Best Value: #3 Procurement 8-1 WON-DH ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Flamboyant 8-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Syndicated Late SCR
Next Best: #10 Devil Rising 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Secret Command 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #5 Market Notes 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Mr. Itkins 8-1 2nd

P6 Grid:

3: 2 (A), 3 (B), 4 (C)
4: 6-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 7 (C)
5: 8 (A), 2-6 (B), 4-7 (C)
6: 6 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 2-4 (A), – (B), 1-3-5-6 (C)
8: 9/SCR (A), 3-10 (B), 5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288

P4 Grid:

5: 6-8 (A), 2-4-7 (B), – (C)
6: 6 (A), – (B), 3-5-7 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 6 (C)
8: 39/SCR-10 (A), 5-7-8 (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5x6 = 150 x $0.50 = $75

 

 

Surprise SA DBL C/O starts with $196k

Friday, October 16th, 2015

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Trust Your Gut 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Frank Conversation 15-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #8 Agronomy 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Tristan’s Trilogy 6-1 4th

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lily Pod 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #6 Untouchable U 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Back Beauty 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 So Sweetitiz 9-5 5th

5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sleepwalker 7-2 WON ($5.60)-Via DQ
Best Value: #8 Film Freak 8-1 3rd–Via DQ
Next Best: #3 One of the Greats 4-1 4th-DQ’d from win
Exotics Use: #1 Royal Journey 8-1 5th

6th: S/ALW, F&M-3, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Enduring Erin 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Light Stryker 5-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Papaslilprincess 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Kristinite 4-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Chaulk O’ Lattey 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Rattataptap 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Gusto Dolce 7-2 4th

8th: Cal-MCLM/$50k, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Chromium 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #6 Silver Summer 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Third Division 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Extra Lucky 6-1 5th

P6 Grid:

3: 5-10 (A), 6-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
4: 4-6 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
5: 6 (A), 3-8 (B), 1-5 (C)
6: 3 (A), – (B), 2-4-6 (C)
7: 6 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 7-8 (B), 1-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x1x2x4 = 144 x $2 = $288

Simple: $2 Pick-6 (10/4/4,6/4/5,6/5) Paid $144.60 (5OF6)

Full: $2 Pick-6 (10/4/4,6/4/5,6/5) Paid $11,566.40 (6OF6)
$2 Pick-6 (10/4/4,6/4/5,6/5) Paid $144.60 (5OF6) x 2 = $289.20

P4 Grid:

5: 6-8 (A), 3-4 (B), 1-5 (C)
6: 3 (A), 2-4 (B), 6 (C)
7: 6 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7-8 (B), – (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x $0.50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (4,6/4/5,6/5) Paid $88.40

P6 & Hi-5 C/O’s add to appeal of SA Thursday

Thursday, October 15th, 2015

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6.6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$52k P6 C/O starts here..

Tricky start. May need to use 5 of these (with addition of potential loose leader Mr. Sexy)..

Most Likely: #6 Fueled by Bourbon 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #4 Pure Poyalty 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Pepnic 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Clever Royal 4-1 2nd

4th: MCLM/$40k, 2yo, 1m )P3, DD)

First of 3 MDN CLM’s which always add intrigue to sequences given the opportunity to produce pop up winners..

Best Value: #5 Nicaradelic Rocks 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #2 Afleet Domination 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Money Makin Mike 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 I’m a Suspect 8-1 6th

5th: MCLM/$50k, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Dangerous spot. Can’t possibly trust board regular Ya Ya Girl and after that there is nothing but suspects. Art of War came back against much better and ran nicely on turf as a 3yo. As viabvle as everyone else at goofy number..

Best Value: #1 Art of War 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Socialized 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Sweeter Than Candy 6-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Super Add: #4 Ya Ya Girl 5-2 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

How do you rely on Runningwiththelute and/or Seek Safe Harbor with pilots Valdes (0/28) and Nicolas (0/19)?

Most Likely: #5 Lil Cheyenne 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Seek Safe Harbor 9-2 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #1 Runningwiththelute 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Moscato Girl 7-2 3rd

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #10 What a View 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #2 It Is Living Water 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Eleven Zip 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Temple Keys 6-1 9th

8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

$18k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Best Value: #3 Moosa’s Legacy 6-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Take It Easyplease 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 My Silver Cat 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #13 Aparri 6-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Elimination Round 4-1 5th

P6 Grid:

3: 4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-3-7 (C)
4: 5 (A), 2 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 4-7 (B), 2-3-5-8 (C)
6: 5 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
7: 10 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
8: 3 (A), 8-11 (B), 9-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x2x1x3 = 192 x $2 = $384

$2 Pick-6 (6/5/8/6/1,10/8) Paid $1,028.40 (5OF6)

P4 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), 4-7 (B), 2-3-5-8 (C)
6: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-3-4-7 (C)
7: 10 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
8: 3-11 (A), 8-13 (B), 5-9-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72