Off to 5:00a launch of Hot Air Balloon Festival in Glens Falls… Will try to get changes up before first post!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Eagle Strike 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 The Truffle Man 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 B B Frank 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Super Add: #7 King Andrew 3-1 3rd

2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Elsie’s Warrior 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Dirt Track Demon 10-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Komisarek 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Good to Be Me 5-1 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6/3rd-8 with 5/4th-6-8 with 2-4/WON-5-6-7-8 with ALL/2nd (2x2x4x6 = 96 x .10 = $9.60)

I can’t figure out best structuring for these dime supers… Paid nearly 30-1.

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Overlap 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Adams Circle 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Insightful 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Smooth Transition 4-1 WON ($9.70)

4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Gathering Cloud 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Capital Market 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Hybrid 10-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Avenging Spirit 6-1 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not much to go on here. #4 Uncle Carm has sib strength as a half to Leah’s Secret, and #9 Caneros was dropped by the superb Kalookan Queen..

Best Value: #7 Backdown 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 City Cool 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Uncle Carm 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Leave of Absence 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-6-7-8
3: 2-7
4: 7
5: 3-4-5-7-9-11

6x2x1x6 = $72

6th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Lemon Spice 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Uwannapieceofthis 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Stevil 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #3 Conservative 15-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Screenplay 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Rigby 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Hasten to Be King 8-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Shimmering Forest 3-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Will really miss these and NY bred turf ALW’s when lawn season ends. They’ve been the bread and butter score opps of the whole summer. Yes they have them in Florida, California and New Orleans, but the NY versions have been highly lucrative this annum as the ‘right’ price plays have made themselves at least partially evident on a regular basis..

Most Likely: #9 Pretty Boy Freud 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Speed 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Devon Rock 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Hammock 10-1 9th

9th: 17th Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Anticipate the SCR of #3 First Passage..

Best Value: #4 Qualia 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Sara Louise 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Rapport 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Moontune Missy 8-1 2nd

10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Beresford 4-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Empty Handed 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tigresco 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Super Add: #12 Bold Vindication 5-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 3-4-9
9: 2-4
10: 2/SCR-9

6x3x2x2 = #72

PHILADELPHIA PARK (PARX)

POST-SCRATCHES

11th: Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f

Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #3 Afleet Again 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 First Dude 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Exhi 5-2 4th

Beautiful afternoon at Belmont was enjoyed by a nice Dee Tee Stables turnout despite nothing going right for Ausable Chasm and our team in the featured Friendly Beauty. Scheduled pilot Rajiv Maragh took sick and off of his mounts mid-card, and that kind of set the tone for what transpired thereafter. Ausable Chasm was eager early under Julien Leparoux, got roughed up and stepped on from both sides, and faded at the top of the stretch in something of a mirror of her debut. Though cut up, the Hook and Ladder filly was otherwise OK and will regroup for a state bred allowance later in the fall. Thanks to everyone for their support and well wishes!

AA $31k carryover is out there this afternoon at Elmont, and is very tricky…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Kinkora 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Cautionary Tale 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Silver Horseshoe 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #8 Quippery 5-1 6th

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Zapparition 9-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #2 Unique Citizen 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Blushing Dixie 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1e Parting Glass entry 4-1 4th/6th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Night Spirit 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #7 Essex Ferry 5-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Bea Bet 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Isn’t She Grand 6-1 2nd

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Silenced 10-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Midnight Billy 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Smart Enuf 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Mr. Hooker 15-1 7th

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Skipadate 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 No Inflation 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Baletti 5-1 4th

9th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T

Most Likely: #1 Orangeblackandgold 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Street Mate 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Forbidden Brew 30-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Blazing Along 7-2 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-5
5: 2-4
6: 5-7
7: 3-10
8: 1-3-5
9: 1

3x2x2x2x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-7
7: 2-3-7-10
8: 1-3-5
9: 1-2-5

2x4x3x3 = $72

It was kind of a ‘workaday’ card at Belmont Wednesday to start the raceweek, as straightforward results generally dominated the slate and modest earnings had to be ground out. Upset of Tahitian Warrior by Birdrun seemed to leave no one utterly shocked, as it became clear the $2,000,000 Godolphin acquiree is best suited for sprinting only. Missed the P4’s as the Birdrun and Karakorum Elektra (8th) wins eluded my plays, but caught a couple nice scores with 39-1 Delightful Vicky dead-heating 3rd in the $101.75 5th race tri, and Best Value top tab R J Hope coming through in the 7th at 5-1 ($12.00) which also produced a solid $67.50 P3. Hope you did well!

Exciting day for Dee Tee Stables as Ausable Chasm’s presence in the Friendly Beauty marks our first stakes start. The Belmont feature brings together a nice group of state bred juvenile fillies going three quarters, and our Hook and Ladder miss appears to be a good fit. Rajiv Maragh, who had been scheduled to ride her in either/both of her previous starts, finally gets the leg up today. More thoughts on the race below…

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hurricane Barb 5-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Speedy’s Gal 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #3 Thatagirl 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Eden’s Exchange 7-2 3rd

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pretend and Extend 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Labor Harmony 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #4 SCR

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Very confusing group..

Most Likely: #4 The Gaillimh Girl 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Theda’s Smile 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Tarrip 8-5 3rd

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rummer LATE/GATE SCR
Best Value: #6 Quiet Power 15-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Awesome Merger 4-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #2 Big Fearless 5-2 6th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best of luck here with an utterly inscrutible group..

Most Likely: #9 Troop Support 6-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miscoe Gray 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Yes This Is It 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Read the Email 10-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Classic handicapping conundrum of former stakes/allowance types like Attempted Humor, Staying On and Codeword being offered up for “buy now” prices. Do you accept those ML choices at face value on the drop or opt for the established “in form/at the level” alternatives at 10-1 or thereabout?

Best Value: #10 SCR
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Attempted Humor 2-1 4th
Super Add: #7 SCR

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Feels almost certainly like a race predisposed to chaos..

Best Value: #5 Palace Mistress 30-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Morningside Heights 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Holy Blitzer 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Can She Dance 4-1 4th

8th: Friendly Beauty-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

By all rights, I suppose should recuse myself from a selection in this spot given Dee Tee Stables’ first appearance in a stakes race via Ausable Chasm. But I thought I reflected a fair assessment in her debut and winning second start, and hope I have a clear view of her in this event as well. I can’t let the race pass without a nod to the pleasure I hope everyone that has taken part in Dee Tee feels at this occasion, as even participation in a restricted stake marks yet another milestone in the group’s evolution and growth. Of course, no juncture in this travail should pass without voicing of appreciation for Chuck Simon and Gary Sciacca and their generosity in making the adventure possible for so many fans and players and their families and friends. Safe trip and ‘BOL’ to Ausable Chasm and Rajiv Maragh today..

Best Value: #7 Ausable Chasm 10-1: Stalk & go threat at number if able to relax early.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Yawkey Way 5-2: Obvious horse to beat given Brown’s careful spotting.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Saltamontes 4-1: Impressed at price in debut against questionable lot.. WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Ginger Snapit 3-1: Late addition to cast; Back quick for patient barn.. 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sea of Liquidity 2-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Crescent Moon Dr. 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seren Trippidy 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 All My Chips 15-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6/SCR–10/SCR
7: 3-5-6-7-8-9
8: 2-5-7-8
9: 2

1x6x4x1 = $24

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Verse Choir 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Nicole H 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Devils Humor 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Spina 10-1 7th

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Cires 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #1 Devilish Due 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Woodrunner 5-1 5th

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Tahitian Warrior 1-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Seniors Pride 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Groomedforvictory 8-1 4th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Lady Maureen 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #7 Hardwicke Hall 6-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Desk Reference 15-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Blond Halo 4-1 6th

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Jazzy Moves 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Deputy’s Citizen 3-1 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #13 Delightful Vicky 20-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #7 Sweet Venom 12-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3
3: 5
4: 3-4-6-7
5: 3-6-7-8-10-13

3x1x4x6 = $48

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bail Out the Banks 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Humiliarity 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Intrepid 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 One Hundred Laughs 4-1 6th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 R J Hope 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #5 Deflationary Fears 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Joshua Reynolds 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Almooriq 10-1 6th

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Ben 4-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Desert Key 10-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Little Nick 10-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Dubai Rainbow 6-1 6th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Centrina 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Tutti Va Bene 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #5 SCR
Super Add: #12 Grace and Courage 8-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-8
7: 4-5
8: 1-8
9: 1-4–5/SCR-6-8-12

3x2x2x6 = $72

Lots of utterly winners at Belmont failed to generate much revenue, but 10-1 Rockin Heat in the Summer at Woodbine juiced up the $100.00+ tri as hoped. Good enough afternoon of action, and I hope you did well. Sunday is more engaging with the notable turf stakes slate at Woodbine and some premier maidens going at Belmont. Dee Tee Stables’ Redboard King has drawn in at Philadelphia (“Parx Racing”), has a chance for success from the outside (#11), and should be a square price (6-1 ML)..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Keep the Peace, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Pinckney Hill 2-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Wesley 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Frisky Thunder 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Whatsthescript 5-2 WON ($8.60)

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Beau de Beaupre 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Our Brave Warrior 6-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #4 Memory Motel 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Disco Capote 5-1 7th

3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Salty Little Sis 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Vicarious 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Maid to Win 3-1 8th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Feldberg 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 It’s a Sham 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Turn That Paige 7-2 8th
Super Add: #10 Sister Berta 8-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating group that looks to produce some nice turf fillies long term..

Best Value: #10 War Clan 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Dynamic Holiday 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Triune 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Allure d’Amour 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6-8
3: 2-5-7
4: 1-4-8
5: 8-10

4x3x3x2 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Atlantic Beauty 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #10 Charmed 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Tulane Up 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Marie’s Babe 30-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Rather salty group with several imposing gals that have started (Caddazle; Evangelical) versus some interesting pedigreed players including firster Amusing, a $550k (F-T, SAR ’09) Distorted Humor sister of the beloved Lost in the Fog (Lost Soldier); Note Proctor also returns Bayou Tortuga, an Empire Maker miss that is half to the 2 superb “Tortugas”, Straits and Flats..

Most Likely: #4 Caddazle 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Evangelical 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Best Value: #10 Bayou Tortuga 12-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Cedar Grove 5-1 5th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Fiona Storm 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Toy Indian 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Delta Holiday 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 La Belle Gabrielle 3-1 WON ($9.50)

9th: 23rd Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 C. S. Silk 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Strike the Bell 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Scolera 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Quiet Meadow 3-1 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Scorper 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #8 Philotimo 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Allrightsreserved 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Recharged 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5
8: 3-6-7
9: 1-2-4-6
10: 4-7-8

2x3x4x3 = $72

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 56th Canadian (G2), F&M-3+, 8f-T

Best Value: #6 Latin Love 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss Keller 3-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use #2 Points of Grace 9-5 4th

8th: 5th Northern Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-T

Best Value: #8 Spice Route 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Marsh Side 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Expansion 3-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Redwood 7-2 WON ($5.80)

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #2 Thunder Ball 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Shellback 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Lady’s First Cat 3-1 WON ($8.50)
Super Add: #6 Smart Sky 20-1 4th

10th: 14th Woodbine Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T

Simply an amazingly deep, contentious event. Don’t settle for anything less than full value because ANY combination of 4 can fill out the top slots. And when I say any, I mean ANY..

Best Value: #7 Signature Red 20-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Famous Name 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Crowded House 12-1 4th
Super Add: #13 Grand Adventure 8-1 8th

<$50 P3 Play:

8: 1-3-8
9: 2-4-5-6
10: 1-7-12-13

3x4x4 = $48