OAK TREE AT HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

Fun sequence for $54k C/O, plus a $27k carry in the Super Hi-5!

3rd: S/ALW, 2yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Darling Ciana 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Table for One 9-2 4th

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 A Lil Dumaani 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Maui Mark 12-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Amazombie 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #3 Booted 8-1 8th

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Indian Firewater 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Saint Paul 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nextdoorneighbor 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 SCR

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific MDN event with some 2nd/3rd timers that can improve and a couple firsters that may have to be respected; Spot will challenge P6 budgets..

Most Likely: #2 Candid Ride 7-2 9th
Best Value: #8 River’s Mambo 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Zazu 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #10 Miss Radiance 8-1 8th

7th: CAL-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Tiz Argent 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #6 Lodi Red 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Warren’s Tony R. 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Accelerant 8-1 9th

8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Darling Disarray 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Miss Buxley 6-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #13 She’sawontontomato 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Confectionist 8-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Pacific Coast Girl 8-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 7
4: 2-3-8-9
5: 2-7-8
6: 2-8
7: 5-6-7
8: 4

1x4x3x2x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-7-8
6: 2-5-8-10
7: 5-6-7-10
8: 4-10-13

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

It could be that the mindset for surface move-ups and playing against short prices on the synthetic main is skewing decision making for all races. Being overly eager to ignore the ML and use horses no matter how they look to be priced has been a mistake so far at the stand. I’m only looking at the good 2yo filly stake at KEE today, as Belmont’s $128k carryover takes precedent today… Hope you did OK Wednesday despite my stumbling around blind without a cane.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

IMPORTANT NOTE: Weather has potential to be an issue as rain is forecast for Elmont by 2pm with the P6 sequence opening in the 4th at 2:35pm..

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Hard to not approach P6 starter thinking of DQ’d-from-debut-win#6 Palooza as a single. #7 Julene, half to MSW Juliet’s Spirit, may get extra consideration off her ‘tangled break, lost iron’ comment, but truth is that she caused her own trouble by throwing her head around in the opening jumps. #3 Cash for Clunkers (SCR’D) and #4 Show Penny seem viable among the firsters as considers given debut abilities of Violette and KMc..

Most Likely: #6 Palooza 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Shoe Penny 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Julene 4-1 4th

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Addition of blinkers makes #10 Z Cats Meow (10-1) intriguing given moderate pace scenario, and #12 (AE) Song for Pupcake (5-2) is an obvious inclusion should she draw in..

Best Value: #10 Z Cats Meow 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Jazzy Moves 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Moonwalk Beauty 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Cougar Cruise 5-1 5th

OFF THE TURF: 15-3-14

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that Romans’ #4 Southern Danger (12-1) freaked in the Churchill slop 6/19/10 (88 Beyer). If not on your P6 back-ups and the rain has arrived by this race, include on P4 plays..

Most Likely: #2 Calibrachoa 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sun Dance Moon 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 D’bigcat 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Not Macho Any More 4-1 7th

7th: CLM/N3L, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 High Cry 2-1 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #9 E Z Passer 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Wild Awake 5-1 3rd
SUPER ADD: #3 Blazing Honor 10-1 4th

OFF THE TURF: 13-9-16-15

8th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Cinco de Mayo Mio 1-1 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #3 Verse Choir 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Electric Gold 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Spina 10-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

#2 Miss Hanky Panky just ran on Sunday, and doubt Linda Rice running back on this kind of timing. Dutrow and Martin training families do it regularly, but can’t recall Rice being aggressive to this extent..

Most Likely: #11 Mr. Hadif 5-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Anwar Sadat 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Aidan’s Slew 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Peyton’s Heart 10-1 10th

OFF THE TURF: 16-11-2

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 6
5: 3-10
6: 2-5
7: 3-5-8-9
8: 3-6
9: 4-7-11

1x2x2x4x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 3-5-8-9
8: 3-6
9: 4-7-11

3x4x2x3 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Blast from past as Jimmy Toner returns Bold Hawk (!) after nearly three years on the shelf..Most Likely: #4 Boots Ahead 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Desert Wheat 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Bold Hawk 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Kennessey 6-1 5th

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Crested 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Six Pack Abs 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #11 George Ray 6-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Rivers Legacy 10-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

NOTE: Listing 3 here, but both/either AE, #13 Dyani (5-1) and #14 Sweetbriar Academy (12-1), would be an include if they got in..And BOTH got in..

Most Likely: #6 Mimi’s Special Six 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #14 Sweetbriar Academy 12-1 11th
Next Best: #13 Dyani 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Granny Ramsey 6-1 9th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Nice sequence cheapened a bit by this fickle set..Most Likely: #4 Summer Courtship 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sarahthetiger 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Simone 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Laura’s Cat Tales 7-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #8 Sheza Heartbreaker 30-1 10th

<@75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-6-7
7: 1-5
8: 1-6-13-14
9: 1-2-4-5-8

4x2x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80

Few positives to crow about from Sunday’s action, but certainly at Belmont it was apparent going in that the racing was treacherous. I knew there were trapdoors planted throughout the P4, and wasn’t surprised when AE draw-in Humble and Hungry, overlooked at 12-1 despite the 6-1 ML, ended the quad quest in the first leg.

The day’s best idea came in the featured Basket Weave, where the SCR of Awakino Cat left Super Chunky, Yield Bogey and Little Nick as the suggestions, and the Little Nick-Super Chunky exacta brought back $105.00 for $2. That’s where the day’s returns ended though, as Disarming, likely best in the nightcap, had an uncomfortable trip and was just late arriving to be 4th by 1.5L at 9-1. As foreshadowed, a P6 carryover awaits us this afternoon at Elmont, and it is no less impossible than Sunday’s slate…

At Keeneland, McPeek’s logical Rogue Romance and Carroll’s surprising Acoma copped the stakes. While the going was generally rough Sunday, Gus Alonso did offer you the $49.60 win tote on Acoma as his top selection in the Spinster. At Remington, Pleasant Prince continued a respectable soph season adding a second Derby title in the Oklahoma version to go with his Ohio crown. And remember too that he was beaten just a nose by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, or he’d have a third… The P4 paid a handsome $1,175 at OK City on the strength of Schramsberg’s $21.40 upset of the first leg, the Remington Green.

Saturday was a lot better than Sunday, but I hope you did well this weekend. One more day of thrills this Columbus Day Monday, including the Belmont P6, a good late skien at Delaware and $82k C/O on the G3 Morvich card at the Hollywood… Weekend Review this morning on ATR including winning connections, Johnny D., Jon White and Steve Haskin.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Miss Marla 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Kitty Kat Rockstar 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sammzilla 4-1 WON; #7 Nice Stuff 6-1 7th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$33k P6 C/O starts here..

Some handsomely made fillies signed on here including Clement debut pair of Rutherienne full sister, #6 Ruthenia, and Siphonic half, #5 Juliette Ava. Barclay Tagg’s #9 Secret Indy was dropped by an unraced Dixieland Band dam that happens to be a half sister of Secret Status. And Dale Romans returns #7 Flying Vision, the half to Tapitsfly, back out for a second turf route try..

Most Likely: #4 Hungry Island 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Flying Vision 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Buster’s Ready 9-2 10th
Super Add: #1 Town Flirt 7-2 7th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Decision Point 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #6 Disco Capote 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 For Wes 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #11 Due to Run 15-1 10th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very confusing group. Could easily add Purrfect Bluff and Brampton to back-up P6 tix and deep P4/P3’s..

Best Value: #4 Atrea 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Star Orchid 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Diamond Dina 9-2 7th
Super Add: #2 Stanford Dolly 5-1 9th

8th: 18th Pebbles, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

KMc, coming off a huge weekend that saw him sweep the Gallant Bob, Hawthorne Derby and Monmouth Saturday and unviel a sharp firster in Fort Hughes Sunday, figures tough here with Neon Light. After or with her though, there are some nice price options with which to tinker..

#5 NEON LIGHT has SCR’D…

Best Value: #4 Sea Road 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Ultimate Class 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Aruna 4-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #10 Bet On the Blue 12-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Like the 7th, only cheaper.. and with even less predictable players..

Best Value: #7 High Prize 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Macho Joe 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #5 Lunar Puzzle 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Quick Money 6-1 5th

10th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Anyone live to this nightcap has yet one more daunting hurdle as this event has at least 7-8 conceivable winners. Brutally tough finish to a challenging afternoon, so take shots with prices you like..

Best Value: #2 Downtown Hottie 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Aprilmayjune 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Lateday Edition 4-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Mystic City 10-1 WON ($15.60)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-7-11
6: 5-6
7: 4
8: 2-4-8
9: 7
10: 1-2-5

4x2x1x3x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-7
8: 2-4-8
9: 5-7-8-9
10: 1-2-5

2x3x4x3 = $72

DELAWARE PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

ENDED UP OFF THE TURF AT DEL WHICH RUINED THE STAKES..

Late P4 sequence went the right way for those that played along, and $760+ mutuel was well worth the investment. Outstanding efforts by all three stakes winner too as Prince Wil I Am, A Z Warrior and Uncle Mo unilaterally elevated their status. At Keeneland, had a few good ideas, particularly in the 2 sprint stakes, but then wiffed in the Futurity and nightcap. Hope everyone did well! Another great day in store with BEL, KEE and the strong Remington/Okie Derby card the focus…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

From a breeding standpoint, as deep and fascinating a MDN turf heat as you’ll find in this country; Compelling but challenging start to treacherous quad sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Film Making 8-1: Debut was better than appears for regal Don Adam homebred.. 8th
Best Value: #6 Northern Hammer 12-1: Excellent lawn page including grass stakes dams developed by Desi Arnaz.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Arthur’s Tale 4-1: $750k colt O/O turf route SW should improve on lawn.. 4th
Super Add: #8 Gold Trader 5-1: ‘Only’ a son of Educated Risk; Rallied in adventerous bow.. 5th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult turf sprint with a couple of ML faves that ‘figure’, but another half dozen within range of them if right; Part II of brutally tough P4 sequence..

Best Value: #8 Auric Girl 15-1: Circling back to efforts that broke MDN and just missed.. 7th
Next Best: #7 She’s a Ketch 9-5: Broke MDN nicely for quarter, but doesn’t attempt uptick? WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #1 Delightful Vicky 12-1: Sharp try 18 days ago; MDN score this course.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Sky Fever 20-1: Was progressing before rainout; Will be enormous number.. 10th

9th: Basket Weave, 3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Super Chunky 12-1: Passed KEE stake for more reasonable company here; Live.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 Yield Bogey 7-2: Kelly has been shopping for spot for hard-hitting 6yo.. 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Late SCR
Super Add: #9 Little Nick 10-1: Consistant Jersey gelding threat for laurels on best.. WON ($22.00)

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

And to wrap up, a completely impossible set of MDN CLMers..

Best Value: #11 Disarming 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Gladstonia 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 By Land Or by Sea 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Miss Hanky Panky 3-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

High wire act..

7: 1-4-6
8: 1-7-8
9: 4/SCR-5-7-9
10: 1-11

3x3x4x2 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Danzon 3-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Haka 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Home’s the Best 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Euphony 6-1 2nd

8th: 20th Bourbon (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another example of the increasingly fun and competitive domestic Juvenile Turf division(s) that inclusion of BC stakes has wrought..

Best Value: 5 Voodoo Storm 8-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Stormy Rush 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Z Appeal 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Rogue Romance 5-1 WON ($8.80)

9th: 55th Spinster (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Wide open..

Best Value: #3 Tizaqueena 5-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Askbut I Won’ttell 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Milwaukee Appeal 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Striking Dancer 12-1 7th

10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Rescue Squad 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Joinem 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Kopitar 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Peace Wine 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Dr. Smarty Jack 12-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-8-10
8: 5-7-8-11
9: 3-6-7-10
10: 8-9-10

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

REMINGTON PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Remington Green, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Strike Again 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ready Set 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Category Seven 5-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Sunday Sunrise 10-1 7th

8th: Gaylord Memorial, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Roundabout Lass 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Class of Fify Two 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 All About Allie 15-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #1 SCR

9th: Remington Park Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 No Such Word 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #9 American Story 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Speedalicious 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Golden Striker 5-1 9th

10th: Oklahoma Derby, 3yo, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #2 Monsignor 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Paris Vegas 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Distorted Economy 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Pleasant Prince 7-2 WON ($6.40)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-7-8
8: 1/SCR-2-7-8
9: 2-9
10: 2-3-5

3x4x2x3 = $72