AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Smart Maneuver 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Storm Island 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hyper 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Extinction 12-1 9th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 D’ Oratory 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Frazzie 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Poppy Day 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #6 Oatkadestinyschild 6-1 6th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Alivie 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Song of Broadway 3-1 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Pelican Lake 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Sultrysilver 9-2 2nd

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group to decipher..

Most Likely: #3 Wardelle 3-1 12th
Next Best: #6 Bella Attrice 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Blue Hill Bay 15-1 9th
Super Add: #12 Catty Madeline 8-1 3rd

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Tapped Out Bruno 3-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Goodbyeandgoodluck 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Whateverittakes 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 One Turn Eddie 2-1 WON ($5.60)

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #5 Roar of the Kitty 15-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Upper Gulch 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Be Nimble 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Lemon Tiger 4-1 WON

<$200 P6 Play::

4: 2-10
5: 1-2
6: 8-9
7: 3-4-6
8: 1
9: 5-7-8-12

2x2x2x3x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play::

6: 6-8-9
7: 3-4-6
8: 1-5
9: 5-7-8-12

3x3x2x4 = $72

As Andy Beyer perfectly summed up in his Cup post script, with a second outstanding Classic effort on a second racing surface, Zenyatta showed herself to be on a par with the best handicap horses of the era. Those that awaited this kind of verification, including myself, can be satisfied that Zenyatta fits nicely alongside the recent vintage high quality route-goers like Blame, Curlin, Saint Liam and Invasor. At the same time, those that anticipated Zenyatta’s open length domination of the event and the eclipsing of Secretariat’s Churchill record for 10f, should come away with a better understanding of the differences between the game’s authentic greats like the Moss’ mare and unapproachable immortals.

Overlooked in the mania of Zenyatta’s 20th and likely final start, was the harmony and importance of Blame’s victory for Claiborne Farm in its’ 100th year specifically, and Kentucky in general. With the Commonwealth’s racing and breeding foundation eroding under a tsunami of political, social and economic forces, Al Stall and Garrett Gomez authored a performance from the Arch 4yo that at least temporarily lightens the burdens of the Bluegrass. Seth Hancock came immediately under attack after the Classic, suggesting in hardboot fashion that the Horse of the Year discussion had been decided quaintly on the racetrack. And just as it has been virtually impossible to explain to the Zenyatta fan base the nuances of race dynamics and the methods by which horses are evaluated for their historical standing, it will be difficult to get them to recognize the value of the Hancock Family’s breeding shed and why the Horse of the Year statue earned its’ way to residence on Winchester Road in Paris, KY.

Post-BC coverage continues today on ATR and in this space in coming days as all aspects of the event come under consideration. A two day, $62k carryover is on hand at Aqueduct Wednesday…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

TURF GOOD TODAY WITH ALL RACES STAYING ‘ON’

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fleet Alaire 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Crimson Tempest 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Playful Majesty 15-1 4th
Super Add: #4 In This Life 5-1 5th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Stormin Bolt 9-2 8th
Next Best: #9 Siete Machos 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Vose the Host 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Heavenly Blaze 12-1 6th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Wild Awake 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Much Fanfare 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Ambidaxtrous 6-1 WON
Super Add: #2 SCR

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Black Pen 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 In Just We Trust 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Drink With Pride 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 King Bo Bo 8-1 5th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

DRF RACE OF THE DAY — FREE FORMULATOR PP’S

Abilio was inexplicably reined back after wire tactics at Spa. Is OK, but several here are as good at better numbers… And note that #14 (AE) Gimme Credit and #13 (AE) J L Bernstein are immediate top choices should they draw in..

Most Likely: #1 Midnight Billy 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Silenced 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #13 J L Bernstein 5-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Smart Enuf 8-1 6th

9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Financial Storm 5-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Sully’s Landing 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Second and One 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Jello Shot 12-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2
5: 1-6-9
6: 1-8
7: 1-4-7
8: 1-4
9: 5-10

1x3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8
7: 1-4-7
8: 1-4-10-13
9: 5-10

3x3x4x2 = $72

It was as strange a stretch of racing at a high level as I suppose you’ll ever see… Breeders’ Cup Day 1 kicked off with jockey fisticuffs and ended with a black eye for the game in the Distaff. In between, there were some nice and heartwarming results with people like Stan Gold and Jeff Sanchez, Graham Motion and Edgar Prado, Bret Calhoun and Jamie Theriot and Bobby Flay getting trophies.

The wagering came up largely empty with all multi-race runs coming to a halt with $96 Shared Account. Though well-regarded Dubai Majesty and Awesome Feather won as my ‘Next Best’ 2nd choices, horses I didn’t like much (Switch & R Heat Lightening) interfered with .50 Trifecta plays as they placed in the F&M Sprint and Juvy Fillies respectively. One of the day’s lessons was a tight, faster surface that saw closers compromised a fair amount. It will be important to watch the 2 sprints and 1 mile Chilluki today early on to see if the strip is as hot Saturday…

Hope as many of you did well as was possible, and enjoyed the racing portion of Friday’s spectacle. As for the two highly unflattering escapades of Act I of the Breeders’ Cup, it will be much easier to forgive Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano for their hijinks, than Life at Ten being allowed to run in the Distaff after clear indications that she was not right. I’ll reserve comment being without the benefit of full knowledge of the circumstances that led to the state vets letting the near favorite run. But in an environment where stewards of the animals and humans on track and the wagering public observing off it are supposed to be at their most vigilant, it appears that grave and egregious errors were made in the handling of the situation.

Let’s table Friday for now and dig in for today’s challenges and opportunities!

27th BREEDERS’ CUP — CHURCHILL DOWNS — DAY 2

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Gibson Crystal 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 It’s About Midnight 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Devils Humor 2-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #6 Speightful Lady 5-1 2nd

2nd: Dream Supreme, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Nicole H 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Rapport 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Happy Week 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Tidal Pool 10-1 4th

3rd: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Always a Princess 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Direct Line 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 First Passage 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Double Espresso 8-1 5th

4th: 4th BC Juvenile Turf (G2), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Soldat 8-1: May be over-looked after arduous Pilgrim; Tactical and eligible to improve.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Utley 6-1: Strawbridge homebred looks best of the Euro babies.. 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Banned 10-1: As with Keertana Friday, Proctor impossible to ignore in big spots.. 5th
Super Add: #7 Willcox Inn 20-1: Lawn-intended Stidham colt offers value arriving late; Upset chance.. 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-4-6-8
2: 1-2
3: 1-3-4
4: 6-7-8-9-10-13

4x2x3x6 = 144 = $.50 = $72

5th: 27th BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Smiling Tiger 6-1: Workout signaled surface move up; Doesn’t need lead.. 3rd
Best Value: #11 Atta Boy Roy 12-1: WA-bred superb this strip in spring; Post shouldn’t hinder.. 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Big Drama 7-2: Hate eating low tote, but too good all year to exclude.. WON ($12.40)
Super Add: #6 Pachito the Che 15-1: Lake 2/0-1-1 this event with pricey speedballs.. 12th

6th: 3rd BC Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Central City 12-1: Werner team has targeted this event all year.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Silver Timber 4-1: C. Brown rallying sort bested price play above last.. 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Grand Adventure 12-1: Sam-Son 4yo won’t be 12-1 off sharp Nearctic.. 9th
Super Add: #1 Chamberlain Bridge 6-1: Barking dog a concern, but too classy to leave off.. WON ($15.80)

$2 Exacta (1-2) Paid $78.10

7th: 27th BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Uncle Mo 7-5: Like Awesome Feather Friday, potential to live up to expectation.. WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #2 Boys at Toscanova 5-2: Damsire Coronado’s Quest allays trip concern; Respect connections.. 2nd
Best Value: #9 Rogue Romance 30-1: Price stab including off-pace runner in speed happy field; OK for dirt.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 J P’s Gusto 10-1: Love worktab on PVal/Hofmans ridgling; Owns experience edge.. 6th

$1 Exacta (7-2) Paid $8.90
$1 Trifecta (7-2-9) Paid $73.60
.50 Pick 3 (1-1-7) 3 Correct Paid $71.45

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 6-7-8-9
5: 1-5-11
6: 1-2-3-5-11-12
7: 2-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

8th: 27th BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Goldikova 6-5: Head on Miesque in 2 Cup wins; Chance to make indelible mark here.. WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #7 The Usual Q. T. 15-1: With Court Vision, sharp in Toronto; Doing great and Eddie Read win a blueprint.. 3rd
Next Best: #9 Sidney’s Candy 10-1: Was leaning against, but speed edge could allow front end theft; Respect.. 6th
Super Add: #4 Court Vision 12-1: Won WO Mile impressively, and is the right one at price should pace get contested.. 5th

.50 Pick 3 (1-7-10) 3 Correct Paid $30.90

9th: 4th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Here Comes Ben 6-1: Lopresti focused Forego winner on this; Stunning KEE work say ‘go’.. 11th
Next Best: #2 Tizway 6-1: Bond 5yo Tiznow logical for laurels with repeat of Kelso effort 5th
Best Value: #7 Thiskyhasnolimit 10-1: Is 3 for 5 at Downs and another specialist who circled this date.. 7th
Super Add: #13 Cool Coal Man 20-1: Will be utterly forgotten; Owns many races good enough for check.. 4th

10th: 27th BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Had played against Workforce coming in, but the Arc/Derby winner has SCR’d as threatened by Sir Michael Stoute..

Best Value: #2 Winchester 8-1: Have downplayed Firestone’s Theatrical 5yo too often; Big shot at square price.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Behkabad 9-5: Aga Khan’s progressive 3yo stayed in Arc; Hints that he’ll love the firm footing.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Al Khali 10-1: Won despite Garcia two back, couldn’t overcome him in Hirsch; Gets Leparoux.. 6th
Super Add: #3 Telling 20-1: Outclassed as win candidate, but relishes hard ground and coming into it right.. 6th

11th: 27th BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Was prepared to swing for fences here with Fly Down, whose Travers try would put him well in the range of this, but condition of Churchill surface Friday prompts awareness that closers chances in titanic edition of this event could be compromised. Zenyatta, and to a lesser extent Blame, may simply not get conditions conducive to reaching contention if the CD strip is as glib Saturday. Quality Road and Haynesfield stand to benefit most from a hot main track of course, but it is Lookin at Lucky who makes the most sense from all angles this day given his tactical speed and how he is coming into the race. He can stay as close as he needs to, and based on how Baffert has worked him, will be finishing well..

Most Likely: #12 Lookin at Lucky 6-1: Doing better than at any point all year; Amends for Derby disappointment.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Blame 9-2: Carefully handled to be ready for this spot; Stall doing little wrong with Arch 4yo.. WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #6 Fly Down 15-1: Puncher’s chance with Travers effort reprise strong enough to impact this.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Zenyatta 8-5: 6yo mare’s record testimony to Sherriffs’ abilities; 19-0 but with something to prove.. 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Haynesfield 12-1: NY bred has progressed since JCGC romp; Thriving in Louisville and not impossible.. 11th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $16.60
$1 Trifecta (5-8-6) Paid $232.50
$1 Superfecta (5-8-6-12) Paid $980.40 ($98.00 for .10)

<$75 or <$300 P6 Play:

6: 2-5-11
7: 7
8: 4-7-9-[10]
9: 2-5
10: 2-5-7
11: 5-12

Full ticket: 3x1x4x2x3x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
Goldikova single [10 in R8]: 3x1x1x2x3x2 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-7-9-10
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-5-7
11: 5-6-8-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Hope you’ve enjoyed the ATR coverage these 2 weeks from Louisville. Friday, join me with Billy Rapaport (ESPN/NBC Sports), Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Rick Hammerle, Gary Young, Jimmy Ventura, and more!

Have a great Breeders’ Cup Day 1!

27th BREEDERS’ CUP — CHURCHILL DOWNS — DAY ONE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Homerun Berti 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Glenwood Canyon 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Too Wild for Words 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Commandeered 7-2 3rd

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Crider 4-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Join in the Dance 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Solar Rocket 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lubango 8-1 5th

3rd: Jimmy V, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Noble’s Promise 9-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #7 Bulldogger 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Close to the Edge 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Cool Bullet 3-1 6th

4th: Ack Ack H. (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Apart 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #4 Demarcation 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Colizeo 3-1 2nd

5th: 3rd BC Marathon (G3), 3+, 14f (PP6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Alcomo 6-1: 7yo from madman Caramori has drilled like soldier for legacy chance.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Giant Oak 4-1: Block’s open galloper may finally find appropriate opportunity.. 4th
Exotics Use: #12 A. U. Miner 9-2: Mineshaft 5yo has improved with additional furlongs.. 3rd
Super Add: #11 Precision Break 15-1: Ibn Bey trainer Cole likely knows what’s needed for this.. 7th

6th: 3rd BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Race is being identified as Toner filly’s (Winter Memories) to lose, but 2-1 or less on off pace miss tough to embrace in large field with several price options available. Respect the daughter of Memories of Silver, 5th in the ’96 Mile herself, but be cognizant of other options..

Best Value: #2 Tale Untold 15-1: Versatile, developing sort decisioned shorter-priced rival Together.. 11th
Next Best: #7 Winter Memories 2-1: Destroyed over-matched Miss Grillo rivals; The one to beat.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Kathmanblu 10-1: McPeek may not keep these right later on, but dangerous now.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Wyomia 12-1: Vindication miss from Kingmambo mare pace threat back on lawn.. 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

3: 2-7-8-9
4: 1-4-5
5: 6-7-8-10-11-12
6: 2-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

7th: 4th BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the weekend’s most entertaining races..

Most Likely: #14 Champagne d’Oro 6-1: 2X G1 heroine Brilliantly handled by game’s wackiest character.. 4th
Next Best: #12 Dubai Majesty 6-1: Will be rallying late; Win candidate picking up pieces.. WON ($19.20)
Best Value: #5 Evening Jewel 15-1: Won’t be 15-1; Will run big.. 3rd
Super Add: #11 Jessica is Back 12-1: Consistent Wolfson performer rarely misfires.. 9th

8th: 27th BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Delightful Mary 8-1: Oxley already has one top ’11 Oaks candidate; Here’s #2.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Awesome Feather 6-1: Proverbial ‘any kind’ youngster could dominate or flop.. WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Theysken’s Theory 10-1: Rosen & Meehan’s Bernardini bay the is Cup’s “It Girl”.. 6th
Super Add: #13 Jordy Y 30-1: Silly number on 4/2-1-1 filly in hands of sharp juvy helmsman.. 10th

9th: 12th BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Harmonious 6-1: Sherriffs filly appears more imposing than for QE II romp.. 10th
Best Value: #10 Red Desire 10-1: Nippon princess left awesome wake in morning ministrations.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Midday 6-5: Legit favorite for repeat try, but Juddmonte juggernaut no lock.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Plumania 8-1: Toss Arc fiasco; Much more potential than a typical exotics filler.. 11th

10th: 27th BC Distaff (Ladies Classic), F&M-3+, 9f (Super)

Wonderfully deep and intriguing version of this Cup standard which has produced many a Champion..

Most Likely: #10 Blind Luck 9-5: Remarkable filly reprises Spring heroics for amazing Hollendorfer.. 2nd
Next Best: #11 Havre de Grace 4-1: A. Dutrow miss has yet to regress; First run on pacesetters.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Life at Ten 7-2: Training forwardly; Like male stablemate Saturday, quite logical.. 11th
Super Add: #8 Unrivaled Belle 8-1: Enigmatic Mott filly her own worst enemy; Not without chance.. WON ($17.00)

<$25 Distaff/Classic Double:

Fri. 10: 10-11
Sat. 11: 1-3-5-6-8-12

2×6 = 12 x $2 = $24

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 8-10-11-12
6: 2-7
7: 14
8: 2-4-9
9: 1-6-7-10
10: 10

4x2x1x3x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-11-12-14
8: 2-4-9
9: 6-7-10
10: 1-8-10-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

CLOSING DAY — $50k P6 C/O (MANDATORY PAYOUT)

4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Colossal Gift 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Film Making 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Cat Sweep 10-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Financier 20-1 8th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Capitol Hook 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 Cooks Forest 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Seattle Louie 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Liscannor Bay 12-1

6th: Gnome’s Gold-NY, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Rustler Hustler 9-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #1 Artie Luvsto Party 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Monzon 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 I Love It 5-2 4th

7th: Sweet Patootie, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Promise Me a Cat 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #2 Valiant Passion 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Silvislip 10-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Revenue 3-1 2nd

8th: Good Mood, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Street Chimes 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Ruthenia 8-1 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #6 Upper East Sider 3-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Mount Holiday 12-1 6th

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #5 Kitten in May 5-1
Best Value: #11 Revelator 6-1
Super Add: #10 Giant Feat 12-1

<$200 P6 Play::

4: 5-6-11
5: 9-10
6: 9
7: 2-4-5
8: 4-10
9: 2/SCR-5

3x2x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play::

6: 1-6-9
7: 2-4-5
8: 4-10
9: 2/SCR-5-10-11

3x3x2x4 = $72