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Aqueduct, Churchill C/O’s fun intro to weekend

Friday, November 19th, 2010
Enjoyed Thursday afternoon Cali action, and went live to Hollywood nightcap with 2 horses for conso and 3 for OK P4’s, but ran 2nd, 3rd and 12th to come up agonizingly empty. Caught some modest exotics and a couple of P3’s as sequence was generally formful. Poison Kiss, a 5-1 David Hofmans firster Brad Free warned ATR listeners about, won the finale helping produce a healthy $38k P6 payout. Aqueduct and Churchill offer P6 opportunities today though, and as a reminder, Churchill’s card starts at 4:30 with the sequence opener tripping at 7:00 ET. Hope you did OK yesterday and are looking forward to a fun weekend that includes the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot Saturday which will be available on SiriusXM with Dave Johnson and Bill Finley doing the hosting from New York.
ATR Friday featured Bruce Levine, Rick Violette, Graham Motion, David Ingordo, Rick Hammerle and handicapping with Gus and Nick. Catch stream, archive or podcast at the website…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$52.4k P6 carryover starts here..

Get the feeling Castellano gets in front on the favorite and doesn’t look back; Viable as a single for the sextet..

Most Likely: #8 Alwaysinmydreams 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Sky Fever 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Refinery Fire 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Donna’s Sandee 15-1 6th

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Entertaining betting race but no bargain for the P6. Starting with solid Benzel favorite, affair mighty wide open..

Most Likely: #4 Cookram Rock 3-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Rigby 12-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Brad’s My Hero 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Bold Vindication 15-1 7th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #8 Judicial Leader who ran 2nd in the AQU 7th Thursday..

Most Likely: #3 Jersey Shore Girl 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #2 Wall of Worry 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jacky Juice 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Money’s Sweet 6-1 5th

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Note that #5 Pegasus Ena is entered for 11/21 (AQU 8) and could SCR from here..

Most Likely: #8 High Stakes Player 8-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Sun Dance Moon 4-1 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #4 Hillswick 5-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Racing office could easily have thrown $2k more into this pot and slapped a name on it as a nice little overnight stake. These fillies will help comprise what looks like a dynamite group of Class of ’11 lawn lassies..

Most Likely: #4 Lucky Strikes Gold 7-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Excited 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Speedy’s Gal 12-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Upper East Sider 8-1 WON ($22.60)

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Like yesterday’s bottom level MDN CLM finale at Hollywood, this is not an ideal way to end a carryover sequence. A bad bunch of coconuts..

Most Likely: #1 My Honey Laurie 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Princess Sucree 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Charmed 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Soda Kaps 8-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 8
5: 4-8-9
6: 2-3
7: 3-8-9
8: 4-6
9: 1-2

1x3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3
7: 3-4-8-9
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-5

2x4x2x3 = $48

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-3+. 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$31.4k P6 carryover starts here..

Best Value: #5 Sweetbriar Academy 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 R Vicarious Girl 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Bizzee Mizzee 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #2 Winner’s Get Even 10-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Charlies Swell 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Special Tree 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Fusa Code 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Casper’s Touch 4-1 WON ($13.60)

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Laughter’s Joy 6-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Canadian Storm 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 It Takes Two 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Wildcat Dreamer 4-1 8th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Utterly wide open..

Best Value: #1 Torcello 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Valerius 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Internalaccounting 10-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Amun Re 15-1 3rd

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ordination 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Quite a Handful 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Unbridle’s Dream 5-1 8th
Super Add: #1a Forestry Type 10-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Knob Creek 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Big Flirt 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Itsallboutthechase 3-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Shot Gun Cliff 10-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #14 Jolly Ol’ Nick 12-1 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-5-8
7: 5
8: 7-12
9: 1-3-6-11
10: 4
11: 1-4-8

3x1x2x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 6-7-12
9: 1-3-6-11
10: 2-4-9
11: 1-4-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

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Hollywood P6, Hi-5 C/O’s appealling but tough..

Thursday, November 18th, 2010
Not enough time this morning to expand on opinions for today’s treacherous Hollywood P6 ($100k) and Super Hi-5 ($42k) carryovers, but will say that the sequence and nightcap are maniacally difficult… Rich Eng and Brad Free will join me on ATR from 11:00-11:55 to survey the slate…

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k P6 C/O..

Most Likely: #5 River’s Mambo 2-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Ransom Demand 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Shelter Cove 5-2
Super Add: #4 Star Navigator 10-1

4th: The Nashvill, 3yo, 7.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Our Minesweeper 7-2
Next Best: #3 Indian Firewater 5-2
Best Value: #2 Paris Vegas 4-1

5th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Tamerin 3-1
Next Best: #7 Entabeni 7-2
Best Value: #4 Our Road Scholar 4-1
Super Add: #5 Ashee 5-1

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweetsouthernqueen 5-2
Best Value: #3 Musical Grace 12-1
Next Best: #6 Twodollarstowin 3-1
Super Add: #1 Saint Cindy 9-2

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 I Can Hear 4-1
Best Value: #1 Naughty Mariana 5-1
Next Best: #6 Charlie’s Princess 7-2
Super Add: #4 Perfect Soulmate 30-1

8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

$42k Super Hi-5 C/O..

Most Likely: #6 Sean S 4-1
Next Best: #3 Pacific Coast Girl 7-2
Best Value: #7 Miss Lulu Justice 10-1
Exotics Use: #8 Onion Ring 6-1
Hi-5 Include: #12 Alexandria Marie 12-1; #2 The Zapana 9-2

<$75 Hi-5 Play: 3-6 with 3-6-7-8 with 3-6-7-8 with 2-3-6-7-8-12 with 2-3-6-7-8-12

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 5
4: 3-4
5: 1-4-7
6: 1-3-4-6
7: 1-3
8: 3-6

1x2x3x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7
6: 1-3-4-6
7: 1-3
8: 3-6-7

3x4x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

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Who needs Breeders’ Cup? Saturday P4’s yield $2k

Sunday, November 14th, 2010
Three swings at quads Saturday brought back scores at Aqueduct and Calder for almost $2,000 exactly. As usual in P4 scenarios, the margin between lucrative payoffs and marginal returns can be one horse. At Calder, getting Joannie’s Catch into the skien at 12-1 was the key to the $1,685 bingo as the other three winners were 3-2, 9-2, and 2-1. (As well as the $675 8th-10th P3.) In NY, no winner even reached 4-1 in the P4, and my live ticket to 6 horses included prices of $1,075, $2,130 and $3,710. Even though I got beat at Churchill, the example of one horse making the difference was evident as the 7th race Pitts winner at 26-1 tripped a $2,400 (.50) return with winners of the other three legs paying $4.20, $7.60 and $5.40.

The point is that you have to put yourself in position to catch a nice ticket when playing P3’s and P4’s, and failure to build ducats that include 10-1, 15-1 and 20-1 horses won’t ever snare one. You still frequently need to include vulnerable favorites in your plays, but don’t be shy about envisioning race scenarios that will produce horses you believe have a shot at big numbers. And with .50 P4’s available more and more widely, there is really no excuse for daring inclusions…

Hope you did great Saturday and thanks to the kind Emailers who rode along with yesterday’s successes. In handicapping Sunday’s cards, I found the races much tougher to read than I did Saturday, and I’ll be treading lightly in the Big A and Downs sequences.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Benzel-Live Oak ML favorite (and Zenyatta half) Souper Spectacular needs to improve further to best this group of hard-knocking elders. Has certainly found home on turf, but 5-2 number, and possibly less, invites play-against..

Most Likely: #4 Center Divider 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Carson Hall 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Souper Spectacular 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #1 Piazza Di Spagna 20-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 4-6 with 1-3-4-6 with 1-3-4-5-6 with ALL (2x3x3x6 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)

6th: Memories of Silver, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group to seperate. The one thing that appears certain, is that should #11 Unbridled Humor draw in, she is very much the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #11 Unbridled Humor 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #5 Hatheer 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Sea Road 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Ultimate Class 12-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Catreign 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Spell Check 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #8 Over Served 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Buddy’s Dream 10-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-8) Paid $21.90
$1 Trifecta (4-8-1) Paid $43.00

8th: Thunder Rumble-NY, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 General Maximus 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Driven By Success 6-5 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Uncle T Seven 4-1 4th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Deanallen’skitten 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Suroof 12-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #4 Smart Farming 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Trail Magic 5-1

$1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $17.80
$1 Trifecta (1-7-4) Paid $97.25

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 11
7: 1-4-8
8: 1-2-3-4
9: 1-4-5-7

1x3x4x4 = $48

$1 Pick 4 (3,11,12,13/4/4/1) Paid $172.25

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Moe Man 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Monsignor 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Medal Round 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Max Silverhammer 5-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Elusive Joli 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #3 Spanish Comedy 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Atrea 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Bayou Miss 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $23.70
$1 Trifecta (7-3-6) Paid $87.10
$1 Superfecta (7-3-6-11) Paid $759.10

9th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Kensei 8-5 7th
Best Value: #6 River Bear 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Agastache 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Early Return 6-1 WON-DQ ($9.40)

10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 She Has a Heart 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Decantering 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Implicate 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Devilish Silver 5-2 8th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Tapitforpar 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-7
8: 3-6-7-11
9: 1-3-6
10: 1-4-7-10

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

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No Big A P6 ($135k), but $600 P4 hit a consolation

Saturday, November 13th, 2010
Took a couple days to get the feel back for NY after almost 3 weeks focused on Cup, but I had a much better look Friday than Wed/Thurs, and was pleased to point people in the right direction throughout the card. Missed the P6, but day turned out fine with the double payout in the Late P4 returning just under $600. One lesson about the carryover was that when they get that big, the heavier investment or group bet approach is quite worthwhile. I put in a very modest play of $64 when it came time (having arrived late at Aqueduct in a foul mood having missed Lloydobler’s race). But a full frontal attack with main/backup tickets on a serious budget would have had a real chance at success for the $135k, as all 6 winners were within my tabs (One 4th choice; Five 2nd choices). Hope everybody did well! Fun day of racing ahead with Stakes at Calder and nice late season cards at Aqueduct and Churchill.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

No less than half a dozen ways to lean here if against 5-2 favorite Sky Blue Pink who is just OK..

SCR of #12 Zealous Boy changes my thoughts here a bit..

Most Likely: #6 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #10 Dougie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 City Train 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Fortissi More 8-1 6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult set with some hard knockers facing off against condition runners..

Most Likely: #8 Harmonizer 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 More Than a Reason 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Brother Bird 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Groomed for Victory 6-1 WON ($8.50)

8th: 54th Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Changing Skies 1-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Mekong Melody 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #7 Daveron 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sweet and Flawless 6-1 6th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Rein King 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Conflicted 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Kill the Joker 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Broken Home 6-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6
7: 1-3-4-5-8-9
8: 2-3
9: 1-2-4-5-7-9

1x6x2x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (6/12/13/15/16-9-2-4) 4 Correct Paid $309.00

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Jack Price Juvenile-FL, 2yo, 7f (.50 P4, Super))

Best Value: #2 Ribo Bobo 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Manicero 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #10 Determinato 4-1 7th

9th: John Franks Fillies Turf-FL, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Litigating 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Salsa Bullet 8-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #11 Mirimichi Babe 8-1 5th

10th: Elmer Heubeck Distaff Mile-FL, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Amazing 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Joanie’s Catch 10-1 WON ($26.00)
Next Best: #3 Trip for A.J. 9-5 5th
Super Add: #8 Successful Song 4-1 6th

11th: Carl Rose Classic-FL, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Duke of Mischief 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Birdrun 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Dream Maestro 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6
9: 3-7-10
10: 2-3-5-8
11: 4-6

3x3x4x2 = $72 (Or $36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,7/3/2/6) Paid $1,685.50

(.50 Play Paid $842.75)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

#14 Lunar Pass DRAWS IN..

Most Likely: #1 Delano 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Perfect Easter 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Skiff’s Argument 8-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Wake Maker 6-1 12th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If no one goes with Pletcher’s Zermatt, she is a serious wire threat..

Most Likely: #9 Zermatt 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Silver Sierra 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Onthe Town 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1a Gold Collection 2-1 3rd

9th: 7th Commonwealth (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Unbelievably attractive wagering affair. As good as Yankee Fortune ran in Chicago, it’s tough to swallow anything around the 3-1 ML on him given the 3-4 others that can exert pace pressure. At the same time, remembering that the Downs turf course is as hard today as it was last weekend, gives at least some pause to expect Victor Santiago will have the McLaughlin trainee part of the decision. Meanwhile, there are perhaps 5 players at 6-1 or more that could be in the mutuel mix..

Best Value: #7 Mister Mardi Gras 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Mystic 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Beau Choix 4-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Thunder Brew 20-1 9th

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Allrightsreserved 7-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #7 King of Soul 10-1
Next Best: #9 Ziegfeld 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Wireman 20-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Juju 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-3-7-9
9: 6-7-9-10-11-13
10: 3-7-9

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

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Elusive Big A P6 to $415k, skien tough again

Friday, November 12th, 2010
No ATR today as I take the morning off and head to Aqueduct for today’s 3rd which features the return of Dee Tee’s Lloydobler. The visit has the added benefit of the enormous 4 day P6 carryover which swelled to $415k+ after another afternoon of tricky results. This sextet is no bargain either, with full fields aplenty and three turf routes to complicate ticket-building. Hope everyone tries to put in at least a small play. My thoughts with 2 budget approaches below…

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Pawley’s Porch 2-1 3RD
Next Best: #3 Lloydobler 7-2 5TH
Exotics Use: #6 Beckon 5-1 WON ($9.60)

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 John Wyatt 3-1 7TH
Best Value: #4 Scotchmallow 12-1 12TH
Next Best: #3 Gamblin Fever 8-1 9TH
Super Add: #12 Pagan Ruler 15-1 WON ($35.60)

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Great Press 8-5 3RD
Best Value: #3 Jimmy’s Sweetheart 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #9 Lucky Leslie 4-1 2ND
Super Add: #10 Money Magnet 10-1 7TH

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Ms Stilleto 6-1 9TH
Next Best: #7 Frivolous Buck 7-2 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Cagey Girl 4-1 6TH
Super Add: #2 Tutti Va Bene 12-1 2ND

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Kid Tornado 5-2 4TH
Next Best: #1 Top It 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Splendid Behavior 7-2 5TH
Super Add: #8 Active Trader 8-1 8TH

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

8-5 fave #4 Denomination is a nice filly, and Clement is certainly capable off the layoff. But she might need one and there are a few here within hailing distance, so go beyond a single if you can afford it..

Most Likely: #4 Denomination 8-5 4TH
Best Value: #8 Quedabra Shiner 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #9 Darjeeling 5-1 3RD
Super Add: #7 Exclusive Scheme 4-1 2ND

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

As much as $2,000,000 on the line and your P6 play may come down to a hatful of $7.5k claimers… Yikes!

Most Likely: #1 No Rhyme Or Reason 4-1 4TH
Next Best: #8 Full N Sassy 7-2 WON ($6.90)
#Exotics Use: #6 SCR
Super Add: #10 Good Will 8-1 7TH

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1 [4]
5: 4
6: 1-6-7
7: 1-2-5
8: 4
9: 1-8 [6-10]

Budget play: 1x1x3x3x1x2 = 18 x $2 = $36
Full play: 2x1x3x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6-7
7: 1-2-5
8: 4-8
9: 1-6–8-10

3x3x2x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (7 WITH 1 WITH 8 WITH 2/3/5/6/8/13) Paid $297.50 X 2 = $595.00

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