Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

G1 Futurity, Gravesend, NOLA Stakes highlight Saturday

Saturday, December 18th, 2010
AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Pretty good looking group of maidens..

Most Likely: #2 Iscar 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Pretend and Extend 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Bombaguia 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Crossed the Line 5-1 WON ($9.90)

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Intriguing starter allowance..

Best Value: #3 Sensationalist 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Black Pen 5-2 WON ($2.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Hillswick 7-2 4th

8th: 52nd Gravesend, 3+, 6f (DD)

Considering lack of graded status and modest purse, this is some terrific edition of the old Gravesend. Going to stand against the Pletcher/Repole entry that will be overly short and potentially hampered by Driven by Success’ inside draw..

Most Likely: #3 Endless Circle 2-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
Best Value: #2 Ravalo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 9-5 WON/2nd ($5.00)

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 She’s My Image 4-1 11th
Best Value: #3 Raffie’s Babe 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Galaxy Jet 8-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Lucky Leslie 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6-7
7: 3-8-9
8: 1-2-3
9: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #4 High Quality 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Forest Uproar 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Caminadora 12-1
Super Add: #12 Going to the Sun 8-1 2nd (at 17-1!)

8th: 46th Tenacious H., 3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

As much as I like Thornbury and Mad Flatter, they feel like very vulnerable fave here, especially with a fair amount of front end interested parties signed on..

Best Value: #5 Atoned 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Mad Flatter 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Dubious Miss 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Z Humor 3-1 2nd

9th: 5th Bonapaw, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

The turf sprint stake is frequently an afterthought on this type of card, but the presence of BC runner-up Central City, 3 well meant Margolis players and last year’s defending champ make Bonapaw 2010 notable..

Best Value: #3 Cool Bullet 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Central City 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1e Margolis-Klein entry 7-2 WON/2nd ($7.40)
Super Add: #10 Grand Traverse 8-1 8th

10th: 60th Sugar Bowl, 2yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Devastated by SCR’s as field trims from 7 to 4..

Most Likely: #2 Joe Hollywood 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Archarcharch 6-1 WON ($4.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-7-11-12
8: 1-5-6-7
9: 1-3-6-10
10: 2-7

4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Sweet and Jazzy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Forty Dates 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Popular Date 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Suances de Espana 4-1 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Next Best: #6 Yankee Station 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Hunch 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #1 Streakin Mohican 3-1 2nd

9th: 30th Hollywood Futurity (G1), 8.5f (DD, Super)

Excellent edition of this last important juvenile event of the year with an unusually high number of participants coming in well seasoned (6 of 10 with 5 starts or more)..

Best Value: #5 High Level Jeff 8-1: Better acclimated now; Zippy drills.. DNF
Next Best: #2 J P’s Gusto 5-1: Toss frustrating BC try; Snaps back.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Gourmet Dinner 5-1: Assume Standridge sees G1 stripe.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Slammer Time 20-1: 27f of work since Cal Cup score.. 7th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Marino’s Promise 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dislittleliteomine 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Pay for Play 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Irridescent Red 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Hi-5 Play: #2 Really Elegant 20-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6-8
8: 45/SCR-6
9: 2-3-4-5-7
10: 3-5

5x2x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50

Heartbreak conso at HOL; 2nd chance at AQU

Friday, December 17th, 2010
Some oddball outcomes in NY quashed multi hopes early and often Thursday. Later though, made a valiant attempt at Hollywood sextet pot that resulted in a $162 conso on the $144 play. Singling of Marquet Rebel was the lone miscue in the sequence, but Big Bad Leroy Brown was 4th on my depth chart, so I didn’t come away feeling like I was overly close. The $11k payday for winners was a nice reward considering the relative logic of the skein. Hope you did well Thursday… Aqueduct double carry starts at $69k.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Fiery Forest 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Monte 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Raphael Alexandro 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 R J Hope 12-1 7th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Thatagirl 4-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #4 Zazzle 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Oak Marsh 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Famous Rose 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Pleasant Sister 4-1
Best Value: #5 Listentothewindblo 8-1
Next Best: #2 Spell Check 5-2 WON ($5.70)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Gold Close to Home 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Raffinator 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Moon Raven 12-1 WON ($31.00)
Super Add: #6 Game Token 12-1 4th

8th: Jena Jena, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD)

Best Value: #4 Spa City Princess 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 My Dinah 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ouchy Night 8-1 4th

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #9 Morine’s Victory 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Leap Day 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Lookin At Her 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Super Add: #5 Dontquityourdayjob 20-1 5th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-5-6
5: 1-2-4-5
6: 5-8
7: 1
8: 3-4
9: 9

4x4x2x1x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-8
7: 1-3-5-6
8: 3-4-8
9: 1-9

3x4x3x2 = $72

AQU with big P4’s, $18k C/O; $106k sextet at HOL

Thursday, December 16th, 2010
AQUEDUCT
3rd: Only Queen, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Red’s Round Table 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #3 Flying Train 5-2 3rd

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$18k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Dreamnote 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Clap Hands 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Charmed 5-2 4th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mound Key 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Smooth Bore 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Private Escort 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #1 Dance Card Filled 10-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 2-3-4-5
4: 2-5-8
5: 2-6

3x4x3x2 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Rigby 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Ziptronic 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Fortunate Run 8-1 4th

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Captain Fertoli 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #2 Grey Foose 7-5 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Tap Attack 10-1 3rd

8th: Sky Beauty, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wind Caper 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Check Point 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 SCR

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 All Zipped Up 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1a Mount Karakorum 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tree Surgeon 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Settop 30-1 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-5
5: 2-6-7
6: 3-7
7: 2-4
8: 1
9: 1-2-8

2x3x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-7
7: 2-4-7
8: 1-3
9: 1-2-7-8

3x3x2x4 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$106k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Poison Kiss 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Que Pronto 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Meter Me Gone 2-1 WON ($5.60)

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Catchy Tune 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #4 Officer Leah 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Candace Gold 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Elusive Cookies 6-1 2nd

5th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mr Artistic M D 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #1 Miles Long Gone 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Gibson Home Run 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Ominous Thomas 5-2 5th

6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Marquet Rebel 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Bestdressed 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cape Truth 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Big Bad Leroybrown 4-1 WON ($13.20)

7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Bran Jammas 6-1
Next Best: #1 Talktoomuch 5-2 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Westwood Pride 9-5 4th
Super Add: #7 Hemera 3-1 3rd

8th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Dee Dee’s Legacy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Bad Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Streets of Heaven 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Waafi 6-1
Hi-5 Play: #2 Figeac 20-1

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 2-5-6
4: 2-4
5: 1-3
6: 2
7: 1-4-5
8: 10-11

3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 P6 (5 of 6) Paid $162.40

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4
6: 2-7
7: 1-4-5
8: 4-8-10-11

3x2x3x4 = $72

POST-SCRATCHES

Weekend ends well; Big A Wednesday has possibilities

Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
Couldn’t get the 6 winners on one ticket Sunday in the shockingly paultry $880 sextet, but rang up steady sequence of exotics hits including two $110+ triples that helped level out the weekend nicely. While third choice for me in the eighth race, Speightful Affair was simply not a horse worth including on multis as she was very unlikely to win. She did, and it killed the P4 and a chance for a P6 conso… So be it. You’re always going to be better off long term trying to get worthwhile overlays into your P3’s, P4’s and P6’s than underlays. I had piled up some nice hits earlier on the card, so missing the small prizes wasn’t too exasperating. Hope you did well Sunday after the lousy Saturday. Not necessarily a scintillating card at Aqueduct to start the week, but there are some interesting spots…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 New York Style 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Stealth Missle 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Copper Cascade 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Marina Market 20-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Cohen double named on the Repole entry. If it’s #1 Dr. W that goes. he’s a 100% play-against. #1a Calibrachoa isn’t necessarily lovable either, but is more encouraging as a short number include..

Best Value: #6 Peter’s Creek 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Cavallo Pazzo 5-2 3rd

3rd: Cosmic Bob, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Goombada Guska 8-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #3 Monsignor 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 No Shenanigans 7-2 2nd

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-f, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Summer Flick 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Freud’s Dream 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Tapitude 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Thunder Princess 7-2 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Both the first and second choices here (#’s 5 & 6) have reasons to regress..

Best Value: #4 Justkeepitsimple 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Why Then 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Amply Rewarded 3-1 WON ($5.30)

<$75 P4 Play::

2: 1-4-6
3: 3-5
4: 1-3-4-7
5: 3-4-5

3x2x4x3 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Indian Lilly 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 For Real Too 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 J C’s Queen 20-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Tough Market 15-1 WON ($22.40)

7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Diamond District 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Dantastic 5-2 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Three in the Bag 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Four Shore 5-1 6th

8th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Speightful Kiss 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Brahman 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Hardshell 9-2 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Has the look and feel of a chaotic race..

Best Value: #3 Candy Heart 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Real Rooster 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 All My Chips 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Bruce Alley 5-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-7-10
7: 2-3-6
8: 7
9: 3-4-5-8-9-10

4x3x1x6 = $72

Shockers trip bonanzas, C/O; Puype filly a true Starlet

Sunday, December 12th, 2010
The Saturday action started and finished with outrageous prices as Aqueduct in the afternoon and Remington at night produced one crazy outcome after another. At the Big A, Here Comes Vinny, whom Nick Tammaro flagged for ATR listeners Friday, scored at more than 12-1 to begin the parade of prices that produced a $40k P4 ($1) and tripped a $32k carryover for Sunday. Mott’s Jaguar Paw ($30.20) was the next upsetter, and came ahead of Randy Persaud’s More Than a Reason shocking the Queens County at 19-1. Even Pat Kelly’s logical nightcap winner, Jello Shot, paid a bonus price of $15.00, and produced a nice double of $181.50 ($1).

Later at Oklahoma City, the bombs flew in the 2 stakes as Brent Davidson’s Sooner Red ($50.20 in the Okie-only End of the Trail) and Bret Calhoun’s Grant Jack ($30.80 in the juvy Springboard) created a 3 of 4 scenario that still brought back $204.20! In between NY and OK, the action at Calder started productively with Best Value Flying Approval’s starter allowance win at 8-1. But when Crazy Catlady couldn’t run down Shirley She Can, who got a smart ride from Joe Bravo, chances for a P4 hit at So. Florida evaporated.

The most important race of the day came at Hollywood with the G1 Startlet, and if there was any doubt about the quality of Turbulent Descent going in, there won’t be any coming out. Mike Puype’s filly, perfect now in 3 visits to the post, was visually impressive toying with a good group of juvy damsels in the 8.5f standard, and should certainly be even better moving to the organic main track at Arcadia on the Santa Anita Oaks trail. In addition to becoming Congrats 2nd G1 winner (Wickedly Perfect, Alcibiades), she likely delivered the Vinery sire the title as leading freshman stallion by earnings.

All in all, had a number of good ideas Saturday but couldn’t put anything together notably in multis and ended up dropping nearly $400 on the day. Hope you did OK despite me… Not a great sequence for the P6 carryover at Aqueduct, and rain is expect on top of it..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$32k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Backslash 9-5 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #7 Christina d’Oro 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 R Holiday Mood 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Viola 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $38.50
$1 Trifecta (4-1-6) Paid $114.25

5th: Cheap Seats, 3yo-F, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Quiet Giant 4-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #4 Malibu Legacy 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Indian Burn 2-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $23.40
$1 Trifecta (5-4-3) Paid $64.75

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Bai Bai Dubai 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gold Cup Kid 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shotgun Bandit 5-1 WON ($7.30)
Super Add: #10 Shot Gun Holiday 30-1 9th

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $31.25
$1 Trifecta (2-6-11) Paid $111.50

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

There is so much speed signed on here that it seems impossible that the race doesn’t collapse..

Most Likely: #4 Not Macho Any More 9-2 WON
Next Best: #5 D’bigcat 7-2 5th
Best Value: #2 V Sat 10-1 DNF
Super Add; #1 Fuzzy’s Story 12-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mambo Fever 7-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Cody Samora 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Speightful Affair 3-1 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #1 Rhys 8-1 3rd

9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Another ugly bunch to end the day. Cannot like the fact that Duggan’s 2-1 fave Last Episode has one published work since 10/24 debut..

Best Value: #8 Good Night Lucy 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Last Episode 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #10 Soldierette 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 City Vice 15-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-7
5: 3-4-5
6: 6-11
7: 4-5
8: 2
9: 4-7-8-10

2x3x2x2x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-11
7: 2-4-5
8: 2-4
9: 4-7-8-10

3x3x2x4 = $72