Happy New Year everyone!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 36th Count Fleet, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting edition of New York’s first step for 3yo’s..

Most Likely: #5 Arthur’s Tale 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 J J’s Lucky Train 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tap Star 10-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Pants On Fire 5-2 3rd

7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

The three favorites — Contessa pair (2 & 5) and Ronen (6) — can win this scrambled affair, but the 3, 8, 10, 11 & 12 are ALL 8-1 or better on the line and capable of laurels..

Best Value: #7 Idol Image 8-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Here Comes Vinny 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Prix de Karakorum 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Her Latest Flame 12-1 7th

8th: Champagne for Ashley-NY, 3yo, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Sky Music 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Awesome Merger 20-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Eminent Tale 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Decision Point 12-1 8th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Paradise by the C 5-2 2nd (DQ’d from Win)
Best Value: #9 Carmella Cee 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 All Quiet 3-1 WON (On DQ)
Super Add: #11 Galaxy Jet 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-5
7: 2-3-5-6-7-10-11-12
8: 5-6
9: 7

4x8x2x1 = $64

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 1m (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Intense Elvira 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Marilla 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Genuine Diamond 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Cugatcha 6-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Lily’s Hope 5-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Political Miss 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Cosmic Song 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 My Mama Gator 3-1 3rd

9th: Tropical Park Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #6 Dynamic Holiday 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Lemons to Lemonade 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Triune 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Greatest Dream 12-1 4th

10th: Stage Door Betty (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

If it’s not going to be Funny Moon — race’s lone G1 winner — it gets wide open..

Best Value: #8 Striking Dancer 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Funny Moon 5-2 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Toocleverforwords 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #10 Joanie’s Catch 10-1 2nd

$1.00 Exacta 1-10 $69.40
$1.00 Trifecta 1-10-8 $485.00

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-7-8
8: 1-2-4-7
9: 5-6-8
10: 1-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: Tropical Park Derby, 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 King Congie 10-1 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #5 Racing Aptitude 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Swift Warrior 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tag V Eye 12-1 9th

$1.00 Pick-3 (6/1/4) $94.40

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3DD, Super)

Cal-bred maidens and the intriguing danger factor here, as with so much of the early days of the stand, is potential for jump-up performances or big debuts on dirt. Plus, tougher still to anticipate aptitude of some of these being progeny of coastal sires with slight statistical data for dirt. Watch board for any clues..

Most Likely: #2 Shred the Secrets 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #12 Nahem 15-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Shelter Cove 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Full Instinct 9-2 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Irrefutable 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #5 Galientos 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Solar Rocket 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Royce 15-1 6th

8th: 8th Daytona (G3), 4+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Quirky edition of this ‘down the hill’ standard, with 3-1 second choice Regally Ready exiting enormous effort when bowing on the lawn at CD in November. His front end style isn’t always the best approach on this odd sod, but unless Dance With Ganble goes with him, Rosario will be alone up front with the Asmussen trainee in the stretch..

Most Likely: #5 Regally Ready 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Quick Enough 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Afleet Ruler 9-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Dance With Gable 3-1 8th

9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #14 Two Violins 9-2 8th
Next Best: #13 Beyond Loaded 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Candy Coat 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Cajun Gent 5-1 13th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Cafe Con Leche 5-1 WON ($10.60)

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-12
7: 3-5-6
8: 2-5-6
9: 13-14

4x3x3x2 = $72

Come into New Year’s Eve needing proverbial bottom of the ninth heroics to level out what has been a sub-par annum for my bankroll. After getting behind at least $8k during the first half of the year, a strong Saratoga brought me back to solid footing, though still slightly down. Since Spa, an absence of consistent multi-race hits I count on to stay ahead has steadily worn a whole in the pocket. With one day to balance the ledger, I find myself down $6k.

A mandatory pay P6 carryover at Aqueduct could be the answer, and having flirted with 6-7 near-misses in sextets the last 2 months, it would be the ultimate ‘walk-off’ to catch this one. Wednesday’s post-break Aqueduct Pick Six C/O play was the latest close call, having had all the winners listed in the tabs, but managing just 4 on any one ticket. $21.20 Nobody Like Mike and a $360 worth of P3’s including him made the day more than OK, but the big prizes ($800 Late P4; $32k P6) proved elusive, and was typical of the kind of afternoon’s I’ve experienced a little too often this year.

Hope you’ve done OK riding with me in 2010. As the year ends, it feels to me that it’s been a period of time where I generally handicapped better than I wagered. There have been plenty of highs along the way — Saratoga season and 40-1 Champagne d’Oro in the Acorn come to mind — but it’s not unusual or unproductive to think there is more work to be done and the approach can be improved. It’s just a handful of results that make or break your balance sheet in any year, and I think about Evening Jewel’s photo loss in the Kentucky Oaks at 14-1 as the perfect example. If you took chances and lost with some horses at big prices that were agonizingly beat, you still likely made the ‘right’ plays. You will be rewarded long term if your opinion was sound.

Warm wishes for a wonderful new year of health and happiness to ATR listeners, Derby Trailers, horseplayers, horsemen and everyone involved in our favorite game. Let’s all work to make 2011 a great year…

Steve

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Iberian Gate 7-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #8 Stratton’s Girl 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Judicial Leader 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gattinara 3-1 9th

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Masala 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #3 Marilyn’s Guy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 No Shenanigans 2-1 4th
Trifecta Add: #4 Nacho Friend 8-1 5th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #7 Illgiveyouwattever 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Voyager 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Katy’s Office Girl 2-1 WON ($4.40)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Whateverittakes 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Mr. Hooker 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Gold Close to Home 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Game Token 8-1 8th

8th: 32nd Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ichabad Crane 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Manteca 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Giant Moon 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Mine Over Matter 4-1 3rd

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-70y (Super)

Exceedingly difficult way to end the sequence, and the year. Race hinges on whether RudyRod’s 8-5 Gentle Edwin is still a horse as he drops precipitously. After that, there are no auto-tosses..

Best Value: #7 Stopbluffing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 French Transition 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Gentle Edwin 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #5 Hurricane Heat 8-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-8
5: 1-2-3
6: 2-7
7: 6
8: 4-6
9: 4-5-6-7

2x3x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 P6 (5 of 6) Pays $6.60 x 2 = $13.20

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2/SCR-4-7
7: 1-6
8: 4-6-8
9: 4-5-6-7

2x2x3x4 = $48

With the opening of the Great Race Place comes an increase in takeout statewide on 2 and 3 horse wagers. This increase was added by the California Horse Racing Board as a purse structure booster to shore up flagging entry boxes and quell the exodus of horses out of the region. The increase, which will take money out of all of our pockets, is hardly an ideal response to issues largely created by earlier missteps by the CHRB including the requisite installation of synthetic surfaces at tracks that run more than 30 days annually. But the anti-California ‘boycott’ movement the takeout hike has produced feels like a response that penalizes the wrong party. California racing, long a bookend of quality on the game’s American landscape, is asking for horseplayers help, more or less, with this ‘price increase’.

For years, California was well below the national averages in takeout, and I don’t recall too much appreciation being heaped on it then for that quality. Spitting in the face of California horsemen and owners now when their product is truly in a bad spot and can use our help, seems like a punitive measure. If you find the increases in the 2 (22.68%) and 3 (23.68%) horse wagers usurous, focus on WPS wagers and their low 15.43% rake, or swing toward P3 and P4 plays which at least spread the 23.68% out to a lower level of impact.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, enjoyed the last week of the ATR broadcast year, and are looking forward to the quasi-official start to 2011 today at Santa Anita…

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES (CHANGES AFTER 1PM)

MAIN TRACK IS LISTED AS GOOD; OFF THE TURF

1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Streets of Heaven 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Capture the Call 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Film Fortune 30-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Victorian Prince 12-1 7th

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Double D’s Diamond 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #2 Rockin Harbor 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ultimate Question 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Brite Red Reason 8-1 8th

$1 Exacta (5-2) Paid $54.00
$1 Trifecta (5-2-8) Paid $146.20

3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Valley Cat 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Anga 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Dave’s Ruler 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 B’s Lucky Strike 15-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

The first straight event of the meet features The Factor, a huge disappointment at .70 four weeks ago under Rosario. Visiting ATR Friday, Baffert came close to a victory guarantee, noting that the move to Bejarano reflcted his unhappiness with the ride on the $250k War Front colt in November. Expect the grey to be involved early; Mandella trainee Ransom Demand, a Diamond A homebred, is half to Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) and Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), and may be overlooked in his dirt bow after two ordinary tries to start his career. He adds blinkers today, and being by Grand Slam out of the productive Red Ransom mare, may jump forward; Siegel Family Forestry colt Hope and Believe debuts for Ron Ellis with some high expectations. His dam Hope Rises (Mr. Greeley) was 4/8 with a stakes win, and hails from the prodigous Ahpo Hel, a Mr. Leader daughter that dropped 11 winners from 15 foals, 5 of which earned $100k or more. Among her best was the ill-fated and largely forgotten Penny’s Reshoot (Turkey Shoot), the 1994 Prioress (G1) winner over Heavenly Prize under Johnny V. (1:09.0; 101 Beyer). Ahpo Hel also produced Twin Propeller, the dam of Mount Joy Stables’ Air France who combined with Smooth Jazz to get Smooth Air..

Most Likely: #9 The Factor 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Ransom Demand 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Hope and Believe 9-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Houston Harbor 4-1 2nd

$1 Pick 3 (5/10/9) Paid $82.70

<$75 P4 Play::

1: 1-5-7
2: 2-5-8-9
3: 3-5-10
4: 6-9

3x4x3x2 = $72

5th: CA-Breeders’ Champion, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Arresting Officer 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Woodman’s Luck 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Contemplated 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 SCR

6th: 38th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Thoroughly deep and intriguing edition of this standard as eye-crossing collection of 13 missies bid for last sophomore gold ring of the year. 10 of these have won stakes of some kind, with Champagne d’Oro the leading heroine copping G1 laurels in the 7f Test and 1m (one turn) Acorn. There is a bit more speed signed on here than in the Malibu, so tactical types feel like the right kind to employ. While Switch, Always a Princess, Pica Slew and Malibu Pier all are eligible for success here, my inclination is to try and hook the best priced logicals with the 2 esoteric ‘Vivas’ at high tabs. Cecil’s Arte Viva and Biancone’s Patriotic Viva are going to be enormous totes and both have qualities about them to like. Biancone, superb 2nd/layoff, sends his Whywhywhy filly with Smith, who can set up shop behind Pica Slew for an ideal stalk and pounce trip. Cecil’s charge, by Giant’s Causeway and possible to move up on the main, is from as classy a female family as you’ll find having been dropped by Helsinka. Herself a daughter of the brilliant 2,000 Guineas/Dewhurst winner Pennekamp, she is herself out of Street Cry half-sister Helsinki, thereby a half to Shamardal. Has worked sharp on the new SA strip, and boasts the potent route to sprint move in this spot..

SCR #1 Pica Slew; #12 Arte Viva

Best Value: #13 Bonnie Blue Flag 10-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Champagne d’Oro 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Patriotic Viva 30-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Always a Princess 9-2 4th

7th: 11th Sir Beaufort (G3), 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Hey, here’s a question…How’s that sale of Sidney’s Candy coming along?

SCRATCH #3 Bogie #4 Sebastian Flyte #8 Make Music For Me #9 Accelerant

Most Likely: #5 Sidney’s Candy 8-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #6 Indian Firewater 8-1 2nd

8th: 59th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)

Like the La Brea an hour earlier, this event is as good as it gets. Historically, this race is won by class types that may haveflirted with Triple Crown competition or gotten a late start to their career or season. Stretching sprinters are capable here, but they need to be exceptional sorts. The Malibu Beyer par is a 104, and is almost always run in <1:22.0. Baffert’s emergent Alcindor and Bonde’s hard-hitting Smiling Tiger figure to be the ones to catch in the lane..

Best Value: #3 Thiskyhasnolimit 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Noble’s Promise 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Alcindor 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Paris Vegas 20-1 10th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Gifted Student 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Wanna Chat 8-1 WON ($18.60)
Next Best: #2 Breakmark 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Swiss Emperor 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Forward Commitment 9-2 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 9
5: 2-9
6: 11-13
7: 5-6
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-6-11

1x2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-9-11-13
7: 5-6
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-6-11

4x2x3x3 = $72

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, Super)

$17k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Hail Yes 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bristol Song 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 Pittypat’s Porch 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Thereisgoldahead 8-1 5th

6th: LA-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Sheza Fast Momma 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Classic Key Bridge 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Creme de Cacoa 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Envoy’s Running 8-1 5th

7th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3)

Best Value: #1 Ready Set 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Gran Estreno 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Southern Anthem 7-2 2nd

8th: LA-MSW, 2yo, 1m-40y (P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Mattgetsnorespect 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 No Lip 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Skymax 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Storm Osidy 12-1 6th

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Delano 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #6 King A. J. 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Evacuation Route 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Angelonmyshoulder 12-1 7th

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Sky Lilly 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Storm Tess 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Ladybird Jones 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Tabo Gold 8-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #4 Sparkin On Therail 10-1 6th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 3-4
6: 9
7: 1-3-6
8: 5-10
9: 6-8
10: 3-6

2x1x3x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 Pick 6 (2/3/5-9-3-4-8/9-6/8) 5 Correct Paid $15.60 x 2 = $31.20

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6
8: 1-5-8-10
9: 6-8
10: 2-3-4-6-9-10

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72