AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Pretty interesting set of state breds, and not so easy determining who among the contenders can be excluded from P6 tickets..

Most Likely: #9 Financial Storm 9-5 9th
Best Value: #1e Odinitz entry 10-1 4th/5th
Next Best: #4 So Scott 7-5 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #3 L L Flying Notes 6-1 3rd

5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

You get the 7# break but have to live with ineptitude of Amaro as Grusmark turns back #3 Pressure Point on <10 days (21% W/52% ITM over last 227 opportunities according to Thoro-Graph trainer stats)..

Best Value: #3 Pressure Point 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Onzain 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Barnie’s Bullet 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #5 Auditorium 4-1 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Southbeachsandy 2-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Mr. Hopps 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Fulton Street 4-1 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #12 Market Distortion 8-1 8th

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Zone Breaker 3-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Brunelli 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Five Cases 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Patent Pending Tom 20-1 3rd

8th: 38th Busanda, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dance Quietly 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #4 Moonlit Malibu 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Aba Dabbler 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Bandola 6-1 6th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Life’s Measure 7-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Proficient Miss 5-2 9th
Best Value: #7 My Unbridled Storm 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Anna Mae Jones 5-1 6th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-9
5: 3
6: 5-8-9
7: 3-10
8: 2-4
9: 9

4x1x3x2x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 5-8-9
7: 2-3-7-10
8: 2-4
9: 3-9

3x4x2x2 = $48

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$10k guaranteed P6 pool today..

Most Likely: #2 Bank Heist 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 De Price 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 SCR
Super Add: #11 Liston 12-1 7th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Potentially important 3yo Maiden Special here, with distinguishing element the full one turn mile distance. From a pedigree point of view on the firsters, note that Shug introduces #5 Point of Entry, a half sister of ill-fated Pine Island (Arch); Bill Mott unviels Wygod homebred #2 Clear Attempt, a daughter of G1 Santa Anita Oaks winner Silent Sighs; and Michael Matz offers #10 Final Strike (Badge of Silver) whose dam Spring Free (Royal Academy) is a half sister to millionaire Spring House (Chester House)..

Most Likely: #1 Best Act 4-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Sinorce 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Joe Vann 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Fort Larned 8-1 WON ($20.60)

7th: 29th Spectacular Bid, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Gangsterontherun 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Leave of Absence 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Determinato 10-1 WON ($30.60)
Super Add: #1 Winchill 6-1 6th

8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Saint Dynaformer 12-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Vanquisher 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Asphalt 10-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Guys Reward 7-2 3rd

9th: 21st Hal’s Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Morning Line 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Tackleberry 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Soaring Empire 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #2 Rule 2-1 2nd

10th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 7.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cozy Lion 7-2 WON ($8.20(
Best Value: #6 Bear’s Rocket 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Rainbows Arch 8-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Coffee Break 20-1 11th

<$50 P5 P6 Play:

6: 1-3-4-7-8-11
7: 5-6
8: 4-8-10-11
9: 3
10: 2-6

6x2x4x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-11
9: 1-3-5
10: 2-6

2x8x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

With him went money bet on the supposed entry in straight and exotic pools, the P6, P5, three P3’s and two DD’s. This is the same pattern of disregard that Gulfstream has exhibited in recent years when taking races off the turf after P4 sequences have started. Bettors in New York are spoiled when it comes to this kind of situation, because racing law there requires a remaining portion of an entry to run for purse money only should their other half not make the gate, and players get protected. Even though there isn’t a requirement by law in Florida for a pre-race entrymate scratch, the stewards certainly have the discretion to declare the remaining runner a ‘purse only’ runner, and the failure to do so was far more telling about Gulfstream’s concern for the horseplayer than a 15% takeout wager.

In the meantime, it was a challenging day with some solid hits to start and finish the day, despite missing the desired marks on the P5 and P4’s. Best Value focus Exhanging Kisses (8-1) dead-heated with Grand Cash in that 5th race, and though I’d have prefered Danny Miller’s Exchange Rate gelding win outright, the triples came back at nearly $200 for $1. Had the range on two of the other nice-priced winners in the skien, but $17 Honeymoon Girl in the 7th and $16 Tagg first Dagney Darling in the 9th were elusive. The first P5 carryover sequence paid a solid $22k, but the sequence was awfully difficult to receive that reward for a successful negotiation, considering all 5 winners paid between $12.60-$17.40. The dead heat to start the play diminished the return by 50% as the parlay with either 5th race winner as a solo was about $42k.

At Santa Anita, had the right single in Baffert’s Serene Sophia in the second leg of the P4, but Barry Abrams got a great ride by Corey Nakatani on Phi Beta Heat who upset the sequence starter at 20-1. The day ended on an up note though as the first leg knockout led to a P3 play that scored at $111 with $11.80 Sporting Art and crazy overlay Really Elegant ($20.40) following Serene Sophia. All in all, afun day of racing for a Thursday, and I hope you did well. Additional action sequences available today at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds, and a good feature ($75k Kalookan Queen) at Santa Anita!

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hybrid 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Ink 6-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #12 Giarixa 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Boat 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $12.70
$1 Trifecta (9-5-12) Paid $47.40
$1 Superfecta (9-5-12-4) Paid $201.70

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Zermatt 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Flask 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 In Perpetuity 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #6 Sweet N Sour Nina 10-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Mending Hearts 5-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #1 (POE) Startling Beauty 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 R Gypsy Gold 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Ipswich Bay 10-1 8th

$1 Exacta (10-4) Paid $51.30
$1 Pick 3 (9/8/10) Paid $99.70

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

One of ‘those’ early Gulfstream stand ALW’s for sophs that regularly produce runners that feed into Florida Derby sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Black N Beauty 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Shadow Warrior 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 El Grayling 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Printing Press 6-1 2nd

$2 Exacta (1-4) Paid $17.40
$2 Trifecta (1-4-9) Paid $50.20
$1 Superfecta (1-4-9-10) Paid $141.00
$1 Double (10/1) Paid $19.20
$1 Pick 3 (8/10/1) Paid $140.10

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Best Value: #1 Cozy Cabin 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #4 Rena 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Dandy’s Essence 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Roar of the Kitty 20-1 9th

$1 Double (1/1) Paid $24.20
$1 Pick 3 (10/1/1) Paid $124.90

<$100 P5 Play:

5: 4-5-9-12
6: 1-5
7: 1-4-10
8: 1-9
9: 1-3-4

4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 5 (6,7,9,15,16/8/10/1/1) Paid $14.00 (4OF5) X 2 = $28.00

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8
7: 1-3-4-10
8: 1-4-9-10
9: 1-3-4

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $.50 Pick 4 (8/10/1/1) Paid $354.30

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Patience Drive 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #7 Caminadora 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Cosmic Queen 6-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Exhilarating 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Merom 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Wildcat Aly 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #4 Sorority Rush 6-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Hey Carmen 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #9 Oil Empress 6-1 2nd

10th: CLM/N2Y, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Phantom Strike 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #12 Curly 10-1 –
Next Best: #7 Badger Barry 3-1 –
Exotics Use: #2 Macabe’s Gold 8-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Win Grammy Boy 5-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 3-4-5-7
9: 7-9
10: 2-7-11-12

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 $.50 Pick 4 (6/7/7/11) Paid $62.75

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Carson Hall 3-1 9th #1a Late SCR
Best Value: #6 Exchanging Kisses 8-1 WON-DH ($9.20)
Next Best: #10 Lemon Spice 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Grand Cash 5-1 WON-DH ($8.60)

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $33.00
$1 Trifecta (2-6-10) Paid $196.70
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $35.90
$1 Trifecta (6-2-10) Paid $195.90

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Dinahmite Sal 10-1 12th
Next Best: #2 Aspire to Silver 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Let’s Do It 5-1 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #8 Don’t Lock Me Out 12-1 9th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Distorted Legacy 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Ba Ba’s Bunch 15-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Hasty 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Lakeside Chapel 8-1 9th

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Groomedforvictory 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Poni Colada 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Apriority 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #2 Viscount 6-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Best Value: #3 Enchanted Mesa 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Pure Amour 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Green’s Hard Ten 15-1 7th
Super Add: #8 High On Kitten 6-1 4th

<$100 P5 Play:

5: 1-2–6-10
6: 1-2-5-8
7: 3-6-7
8: 3-10
9: 3-10

4x4x3x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-5-8
7: 3-6-7
8: 3-9-10
9: 1-3-8-10

4x3x3x4 =144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Bitt a Heat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Orfano 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Bila Shaka 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Favolosa 8-1 4th

6th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Serene Sophia 3-1 WON ($4.40))
Best Value: #3 Frequent Fame 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Our Road Scholar 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Shesoprovocative 4-1 2nd

7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sporting Art 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #1 Get a Grip 9-2 8th
Best Value: #6 Interpatation 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Yodelen Dan 3-1 4th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Led Advantage 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Simply Put 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Really Elegant 9-2 WON ($20.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Marino’s Promise 7-2 –
Super Add: #8 Warren’s Highroller 3-1 5th

$1 Pick 3 (4/3/5) Paid $110.90 (3OF3)

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-6-7
6: 4
7: 1-3-4-6
8: 1-2-5-6-8-9

3x1x4x6 = $72

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Credible favorites in Upgrade and Cognac Kid, but neither have to win. Pricey options abound including pairs from Sheppard and Romans, grass movers from Serpe and Zito, and Wilkes’ Versailles Road..

Best Value: #3 Versailles Road 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Upgrade 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ae Pit 12-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Steve’s Star 20-1 10th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Odd group and two faves don’t inspire overwhelming confidence..

Best Value: #10 Sweetly Valid 20-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Miss Smarty Pants 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Media Starlett 10-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Gazillion Kisses 6-1 WON ($13.00)

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Like the 5th, favorites are solid but unspectacular..

Best Value: #5 Silent Joy 8-1: Notable trainer switch.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Melody Dawn 6-1: Motion clicks 1st/North America.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Lady’s Lunar Luck 6-1: Bush acquisition dangerous.. 7th
Super Add: #7 Silvislip 20-1: Viable exotics booster.. 11th

8th: Old Hat (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

A. Dutrow praised maturing Smoke Glacken grey in ATR visit Tuesday, noting that Jeremy Rose will not need the lead with overachieving PA-bred..

Most Likely: #5 Quantum Miss 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Roxy Gap 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Pomeroy’s Pistol 10-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7.5f-T (Super)

Third lawn event of sequence, and am again interested in backing some horses that aren’t readily apparent. Fawkes’ Show Time highly embracable going to lawn off iffy dirt debut 12/16 across town. Adept conditioner has positive ROI’s on all relevant karma angles, and fact that The Cliff’s Edge bay is a half to Hollendorfer’s excellent lawn lass Rendezvous is olive in the martini..

Best Value: #3 Show Time 12-1 12th
Next Best: #1 Derby Kitten 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Classical Chant 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Vapor Trace 8-1 6th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 1-3-8
6: 4-8-9-10
7: 2-5-9
8: 5
9: 1-3-10-12

3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $75

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-8-9-10
7: 2-5-9-14
8: 5
9: 1-3-10-11-12

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

Good card and big $120k P6 carryover, ($38k Hi-5 nightcap pot as well), make Santa Anita the easy choice for today’s punting, though weather watch part of the picture. “ATR” back live Monday morning to start its’ 7th year…

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

$120k P6 carryover at Arcadia today, but weather threatens turf action (2nd, 4th, 6th) with an afternoon storm expected. Rick Hammerle carded the featured Monrovia as that 2nd in attempt to beat the guestimated arrival of ‘inclemency’. See Weather Underground for latest..

2nd: 44th Monrovia (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Like Saturday’s Daytona, a nice way to start the downhill course action for the season, this time for the distaffers. Headliners Evening Jewel and Unzip Me are two of my own favorite horses in training, and both return here from respective 3rds in the Breeders’ Cup. Brad Free explains the status of both for today (Jewel goes turf or dirt in prep for Sunshine Millions Distaff; Unzip only runs if it stays on lawn) in his race DRF stake preview..

Most Likely: #2 Evening Jewel 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 La Nez 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Unzip Me 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #1 Broken Dreams 6-1 2nd

OFF THE TURF: 2-6-8-5

4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$120k P6 Carryover starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Blue Jay Attack 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Pack Your Bags 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Red Defense 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #9 Detroit Donnie 20-1 8th

5th: CLM, 4yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Brutal group with many steep droppers and most away from dirt a good while..

Most Likely: #8 Primed 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Sipnzin 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 She’s Not Lion 7-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Island Shine 15-1 8th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Anniversary Girl 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hot Ticket 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Mrs. Rosa 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #3 Lula Talullah 3-1 6th

7th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Point Attended 4-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Positive Force 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Rummysecret War 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #7 The Whammer 8-1 5th

8th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 McMurtry 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Accelerant 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Valiant Effort 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Pop’shands Are Hot 5-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 4+, 1m (Super, Super High 5)

$38,221 Hi-5 Carryover..

Best Value: #11 Captain Beau 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Call the River 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Matamor 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Trueno 8-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Viva Macho 4-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-7
5: 7-8
6: 7
7: 1-4-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 6-11

2x2x1x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 1-4-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 2-4-6-11

2x3x3x4 = $72