As I’ve been writing, it’s challenging every race, every day at Gulfstream, and I’m taking the day off from Hallandale with a $25k carryover at Aqueduct on a fun card, and a $46k Super Hi-5 carryover at Santa Anita at the end of the nice P4 sequence. Speaking of Pick-X sequences, the P6 at Santa Anita went to a single winner Saturday for $118k. People are so down on California that they only bet $221k into the P6 pool and $504k into the Late P4…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

You can protect 2-1 fave #5 Sin and the City in the P6, but gleefully play against him within the race. He beat less than nothing at Philly on a notorious speed track. Note race two back for turnbacker #1 Eltish Star who was sandwiched between two impressive next out winners in Driven by Solar and Winning Touch. Had no chance last time trying to close into slow route pace..

Best Value: #1 Eltish Star 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 E Knows Why 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Six Flings 12-1 4th

5th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Need to note the passing of trainer Faustino Ramos, a victim of a heart attack at age 70 Thursday. Ramos, who started in the U.S. working for Bennie Perkins Sr. and around the game more than 3 decades, posthumously sends his final starter here in #9 Banking Holiday. Ramos last win came in September with Gentle Ride, and he enjoyed success in ALW company recently with In for a Dime. His stakes winners included Punchline Patty, Sam’s Sunny Halo, and Lovely Fiona.. (Alas, Banking Holiday has been SCR’d)..

Most Likely: #4 Saints Alive 2-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Mr. Magenta 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #5 Morine’s Victory 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Undocumented 8-1 6th

6th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Quite a lesson in racehorse economics in this event with $625k Sensei, $170k All My Chips, $160k Soldier of Destiny and $350k Seeking Anita all looking for a Maiden victory at the $12,500 tag level..

Best Value: #2 Seeking Anita 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #10 Sensei 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #9 All My Chips 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mystic Era 20-1 2nd (at 65-1)

$1 Exacta (2-4) Paid $157.00
$1 Trifecta (2-4-9) Paid $584.00

7th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 In Her Hey Day 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #10 Southern Sunsation 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dance Card Filled 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 India Hermosa 6-1 8th

$1 Pick 3 (7/2/4) Paid $58.25

8th: Lady On the Run, F&M-4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Wind Caper 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Quiet Giant 7-5 WON ($3.60)

$1 Pick 3 (2/4/5) Paid $34.50

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 No Goal 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Roaring Belle 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Charmed 8-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Why Then 6-1 WON ($11.80)

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1
5: 2-3-4-5-7
6: 2-9-10
7: 4-10
8: 4-5
9: 11

1x5x3x2x2x1 = 60 x $2 = $120

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-9-10
7: 4-7
8: 4-5
9: 3-7-9-11

3x2x2x4 = $48

$1 Pick 4 (2/4,6/5/9) Paid $175.50

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Sweetsouthernqueen 5-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Malusita 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Misinjennuous 7-2 7th
Super Add: #2 Tamerin 3-1 WON ($11.60)

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Feels like a contentious pace is in the offing here..

Most Likely: #6 Hemera 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #3 Andina 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Calle Vista 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Gripsholm Castle 4-1 4th

8th: 47th El Encino (G2), 4yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Great to get the likes of established MGSW Blind Luck, Always a Princess and Champagne d’Oro back running early in the year, as well as see how much more upside there is on fillies like Malibu Pier and It Tiz..

Most Likely: #2 Blind Luck 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Always a Princess 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #3 Malibu Pier 3-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Champagne d’Oro 6-1 4th

$1 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $160.20

9th: MDN CLM, 4+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

$47k Super Hi-5 C/O Here..

Most Likely: #1 Resplendently 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #7 Our Last Monte 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Naturaliste 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Gifted Student 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #11 Indiana Nana 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $18.40
$1 Trifecta (1-7-6) Paid $65.50
$1 Superfecta (1-7-6-11) Paid $349.90
$1 Pick 3 (6/6/1) Paid $113.70

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-6-7
7: 2-3-4-6
8: 2-6
9: 1-6-7-10

4x4x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/6/6/1) Paid $316.55

Other price punts Vapor Trace and Smarty Louie were more futile, but as Mike Welsch agreed on ATR, it was a good day to try for less predictable outcomes. Much like the Ron Spatz $60 winner Thursday, Friday’s wild $140 horse from Edwin Vasquez was not as impossible as one would be led to believe. Though Vasquez himself hasn’t been saddling horses since 2008, Doc Green had just run a solid figure race at Calder mid-December and signaled his sharpness in a Best of 29 half mile bullet (:48.2) across town 10 days ago. The most maddening part of his run to the wire was of course that it came at the expense of In Speight of It, whom I played, and whom Doc Green had trailed in that CRC plater 12/18. The exacta of them in this spot returned more than $1,600 ($2).

Point is, as stressed Friday, winning at Gulfstream is very hard right now with every horse needing to be carefully considered and then watched on the board for possible monster overlays. There are simply too many runners in these fields for the public to absorb, and a watchful eye and patient hand will bring down big game along the way. There will be opportunities today or any time over this three day racing weekend!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #’s 4 & 5

Best Value: #2 Zone Breaker 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Zen Village 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Lord Jet 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Z Bug 5-1 5th

7th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #’s 1 & 4

Most Likely: #5 Run to Grand Ave. 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Magic Max 6-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Talk to Nick 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Brocket Man 10-1 2nd

8th: 92nd Evening Attire, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Arson Squad 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Alma d’Oro 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Goombada Guska 5-1 4th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Dirt Track Demon 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Bill Senor 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Porcello 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #8 Neversaywhen 10-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7
7: 5
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 4-7-8-12

3x1x4x4 = $48

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

$50k P6 & $53k P5 Carryovers..

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Important looking group of Maidens from impressive set of sires, dams and connections..

Most Likely: #4 Arch Traveler 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Katz My Song 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 King Alpha 12-1 6th

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Church Service 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Stevil 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Tastefully Smart 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 SCR (11:43pm)

7th: 56th Mr. Prospector (G3), 4+,

Most Likely: #6 Big Drama 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Peace at Dawn 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Custom for Carlos 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Taqarub 10-1 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

I think the top below have a little distance between themselves and the next set of win-eligible types, but if it isn’t going to be one of them, it could be any of another half dozen..

Most Likely: #2 Sr. Henry 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Uncle Indy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Dr. Smarty Jack 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Lejadami 12-1 12th

9th: 29th Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Tough group to get a handle on with variety of layoffs and 2nd/break a major portion of the equation..

Most Likely: #3 Jessica is Back 4-1 –
Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #7 Ms. Vanenzza 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Hilda’s Passion 3-1 2nd

10th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

#15 (AE) Hyper (5-1) a danger should he draw in..

Most Likely: #2 Gathering Cloud 4-1
Best Value: #6 Annawon 15-1
Next Best: #1 Santa 5-2
Super Add: #3 Guns and Religion 10-1

<$20 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9
7: 6
8: 2-3
9: 3-6-7
10: 1-2-6

2x5x1x2x3x3 = 180 x .10 = $18.00

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9
7: 6
8: 2-3
9: 3-6-7
10: 1-2-6

5x1x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6
8: 2-3-7-8-11-13
9: 1-3-5-6-7-10
10: 1-2-6-10

1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky looking dash with several here with efforts in their PP’s that would gain honors. Amount of speed signed on signals likely pace meltdown..

Best Value: #5 Giant Ryan 15-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Just Ben 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Joey P 5-2 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #9 Safe Trip 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Another tesing heat with non-descript in-and-outers..

Best Value: #3 Miracle Getter 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Yes It’s Dan 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Home Field 10-1 7th
Super Add: #6 In Speight of It 12-1 2nd

7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favorite is uber logical but nothing special by any means. Don’t be afraid to speculate on first time turf candidates..

Best Value: #13 Vapor Trace 20-1 5th
Most Likely: #4 Itouch 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Seven Blue 6-1 9th
Super Add: #12 Code Taker 10-1 8th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

#13 (AE) Correct Response (8-1) is a must include should he draw in..

Best Value: #7 Smartie Louie 20-1 11th
Most Likely: #2 Casino Host 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Rock Hard Nicky 15-1 12th
Super Add: #13 Correct Response 8-1 10th

9th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Joanie’s Catch just keeps coming at you; Will continue to play her until she gets over the top..

Best Value: #8 Joanie’s Catch 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Catch a Thief 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Happy Week 5-2 5th
Super Add: #4 Banker’s Buy 8-1 7th

10th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lady Jadana 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #5 Catch the Beat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Molly Malone 20-1 4th
Super Add: #2 C. S. Royce 6-1 6th

<$20 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-5-9
6: 3-7-9
7: 4-13
8: 2-7
9: 3-8
10: 3-5

4x3x2x2x2x2 = 192 x .10 = $19.20

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 3-7-9
7: 3-4-8-13
8: 2-7-11-12
9: 3-8
10: 3-5

3x4x4x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-13
8: 2-7-11-13
9: 1-3-4-8
10: 2-3-5-12

2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

Wednesday at Gulfstream was challenging as advertised, as the depth of the fields continued to make it difficult to string together winners. The upside of that of course is the overlay payouts that are regularly produced when you do catch the right combinations in exotics or multi-race plays. Curiously, one of the top three choices won the 4th-7th, but the P3’s still paid $121 (4th-6th) and $153 (5th-7th)! The P5, which had to have difficult-to-use Trix in the City from the 8th, paid a handsome $5,953. Trix in the City somehow stayed on in the feature when other pacesetters (Tapitsfly & Barracks Road) collapsed, and cost me an enormous hit as selection features Romin Robin (21-1), Sweet Theresa (18-1) and Miss World (4-1) ran 2-3-4 behind her.

An interesting sidebar from the sequence was that the new Rainbow P6 was hit by 2 tickets that each collected $5,370. The carryover continued to grow, and now has reached $31,500. Steve Crist seems interested in how this new sextet might be approached, and included thoughts in his musings regarding the late Pick-X’s which Gulfstream is offering. Returns of $5k certainly seem worth chasing if your .10 wager approach keeps a low cap, and I didn’t mind losing $19.20 on my punch seeing that payout. Indeed, the “unique winner” concept of this P6 gives it the “Lotto” feel which has been suggested. I doubt playing for much “real” money makes sense until the thing reaches the anticipated jackpot level, but for anywhere from $4.80 (48 multiples) to the $20-ish (192 multiples) I suggested, it seems like the kind of simple action that can introduce neophytes to real multi-race wagering.

Hope you did OK yesterday. I caught a couple of modest exotics in the 7th and 9th to defray costs, but felt like the big one got away in the feature when Sweet Theresa and Romin Robin fell short. Wednesday’s ATR guests faired well, as Graham Motion’s colt Toby’s Corner was an effortles winner at Laurel (81 Beyer), and Eddie Plesa scored for Mrs. Weber with Chateau D’ Kim. Both had other board hits as well. More good racing at GP today, and there’s a nice Late P4 at Santa Anita as well. Aqueduct is back in action after the heavy snow, and the Leecoo Stakes for state-bred damsels is a very good assembly.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$31,500 P6 Carryover starts here..

Best Value: #4 Golden Mystery 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Super Slash 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Hyperlink 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #3 Granted Tiger 5-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Think Catalano might like to beat Calabrese here?

Most Likely: #2 Love This Kitten 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #1 Dreaming of Rose 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Maria’s Luck 20-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Hidden Love 20-1 12th

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Morality 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Star Player 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a A Centurion 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Ling Ling Qi 12-1 9th

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Going to add #8 Christmas Cove at 12-1 to my tri and super plays..

Best Value: #1 Strike It Green 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Noble Charlotte 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Celestial Kitten 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 My Redbyrd 5-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Expo Gold 6-1 –
Next Best: #4 Wild About Sonny 5-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Tellme All Aboutit 12-1 –
Super Add: #8 Because I Like It 4-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Nearly impossible nightcap. Use as many as you can in your multis..

Best Value: #1 Wulfgar 10-1 –
Next Best: #7 Billions Boy 6-1 –
Exotics Use: #4 Papaw Bodie 10-1 WON ($)
Super Add: #11 Kuggerand 12-1 2nd

<$20 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 1-2
6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-7

2x2x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .10 = $14.40

<$75 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-9-12
6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-7

4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5-7-12
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-4-7-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$24,337 Sunshine P6 Carryover starts here..

NOTE: Scratches have allowed Beer Stien into the field.. Very likely winner..

Most Likely: #15 BEER STIEN 3-1
Best Value: #7 Big Dealer 8-1
Next Best: #3 Our Friend Harvey 7-2
Super Add: #11 St. Joe 10-1

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Razataz 5-2
Next Best: #7 Papa Tango 3-1
Best Value: #2 Value Added Tax 8-1
Super Add: #4 Devil Train 10-1

6th: MSW, 3yo, 5f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Modest 6-1
Next Best: #9 Flaming Heat 7-2
Exotics Use: #11 Chagu Mio 5-1
Super Add: #12 Gudahi 12-1

7th: S/ALW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Andysun 3-1
Best Value: #6 Crimson Knight 6-1
Next Best: #3 Chateau D’ Kim 4-1
Super Add: #1 Taylor’s Wise Lion 8-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Certainly an event on a par with many G3 stakes..

Best Value: #10 Sweet Theresa 12-1
Next Best: #8 Miss World 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Tapitsfly 4-1
Super Add: #11 Romin Robin 6-1

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Peb Hughes 7-2
Next Best: #9 Kris and Me 4-1
Best Value: #10 Aussi Austin 6-1
Super Add: #8 Strategic Defense 8-1

<$20 P6 Play:

4: 15
5: 7-8
6: 2-9-11
7: 6-9
8: 1-4-6-7-8-9-10-11
9: 5-9

1x2x3x2x8x2 = 192 x .10 = $19.20

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 7-8
6: 2-9-11
7: 6-9
8: 6-8-10-11
9: 5-9-10

2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-9-11-12
7: 6-9
8: 6-8-10-11
9: 5-9-10

4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve