POST-SCRATCHES

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

OFF THE TURF ONCE AGAIN

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Albali 9th
Next Best: #13 Developing Story 8th
Exotics Use: #15 Dandy’s Essence 3rd
Super Add: #6 Kate’s Holiday 2nd

7th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Thursday with Mike Welsch, this is a rather unremarkable looking group. And the faves are not markedly better than the prices..

Best Value: #1 Deed It Is 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dance City 8-5 WON ($3.60
Exotics Use: #6 Trouble for Tiger 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Where’s the Beef 6-1 4th

8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Island School 12-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #5 Mirimichi Babe 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Call Again 15-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Mae Ruler 20-1 9th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Will likely produce some Fountain of Youth starters, but let’s wait and see what we get here before annointing anyone..

Most Likely: #2 LATE SCRATCH
Next Best: #4 Cool Blue Red Hot 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Lauburu 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Beamer 6-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 4+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Best Value: #1 Stern 8-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #7 SCRATCH
Exotics Use: #6 SCRATCH
Super Add: #9 Career High 5-1 2nd

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 6-10-13-15
7: 1-4-6
8: 11
9: 2-4
10: 1-6-7-9

4x3x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

.50 CENT Pick 5 (12-4-11-2/3-1) 4 Correct Paid: $10.80 X 4 = $43.20

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6
8: 2-5-7-11
9: 2-4-6
10: 1-6-7-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 Pick 4 (4-11-2/3-1) 4 Correct Paid: $140.70

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rogue’s Jewel 2-1
Best Value: #5 Opus A 5-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Amiga Del Sol 4-1
Super Add: #8 Fivefifteen 7-2

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1a Song of Broadway 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 My Sire’s Fire 3-1
Best Value: #7 Up Up Away 5-1

8th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dorian Will 4-1
Next Best: #4 Hillswick 3-1

9th: NY-MSW, 4+, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Good to Be Me 2-1
Best Value: #8 Gasper C 12-1
Next Best: #6 Sully’s Landing 7-2
Super Add: #10 Komisarek 15-1

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-6
7: 1
8: 4-5-6
9: 1-2-6-8-10

3x1x3x5 = $45

$1 Pick 4 (5-1-6-1) Paid $867.00

I like to think that anyone who has observed my approach over the last 8-9 years knows that the quality hits come and make up for the short term shortfalls. Just three weeks ago I summarized 2010 by noting that I ended the year down close to $6,000. Results over the previous 100 hours saw that figure cut by more than 50% on the strength of Sunday’s $600 AQU tri and $300 SA P4 and the $2,939 MLK Day P4 (GP) featuring Pat Biancone’s $53 nightcap winner. Having a philosophy with parameters for wagering that works for you, and maintaining a steadfast belief in it and yourself continues to be the ‘best angle’ there is for a horseplayer. That isn’t to say that being obstinate in the face of poor results is a winning approach… You always are growing and learning in this crazy hobby (or vocation), and work to be a better handicapper or wagerer. But as I discussed with Rich Eng on ATR right before the Christmas break, no one playing the races can win if they don’t have supreme confidence in their own likelihood of success.

Without getting into a big discussion on takeout, the above ‘philosophy’ is probably the reason I don’t buy the whole ‘boycott’ hubbub. I understand that the ‘price’ of wagering is too high and would like to see it lowered to the widespread benefit of everyone. But I’ve been generally successful playing horses for too long at this point to believe that the takeout prevents people from winning at the racetrack. I’ve come out ahead at the end of most years, and I’m not any more clever a pilot than anyone else trying to negotiate the rocky shoals of horseplay.

Monday, the Biancone horse Introvert was 20-1 on the morning line with a race expected to be on the turf. I was playing her on the grass for a variety of reasons anyway, but it came off the turf and was to be run over a track anticipated to be sloppy. By Smarty Jones, a very solid wet track sire (15%), Introvert was making her second career start, an area where Biancone excels (19% with 53 starters last 3 years; $3.16 ROI). She was also adding blinkers, which figured to put her into the race earlier on a notoriously fast surface, and was being ridden by a bug boy that provided a 5-7# weight break on the rest of the field. What was so magical about picking or using the horse at 20-1 on the morning line or adjusting to include her at the 26-1 she was at post time? As I wrote and said for a week, getting just one of these types home on occasion was going to justify sticking with your approach at challenging Gulfstream, and it felt great to be rewarded. It feels even better to point others towards bonanza returns. Hope you did well!

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

OFF THE TURF AGAIN TODAY

5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Wide open and very quirky-feeling affair and will make the P5 tremendously challenging given how many you likely need to use to survive the first leg..

Best Value: #10 Vow to Honor 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #5 Rosemont Drive 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Riggan 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Rhythm in May 12-1 10th

$1 Exacta (10-1) Paid $96.80

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-Off the Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Step Out Smartly 7th
Next Best: #2 R Vicarious Girl WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #13 One Hot Toddy 8th
Super Add: #6 Blackwell 4th

7th: FL-MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Heir to Dare 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sola Gratia 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Truffles 15-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Gloomy I’m Knot 10-1 WON ($8.20)

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 10f-Off the Turf (DD, Super)

DRF Race of the Day..

Most Likely: #4 Harrods Creek WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #6 Karamanos 4th
Best Value: #12 Our Repent 6th
Super Add: #9 High Aspirations 3rd

9th: CLM, 4+, 1m-Off the Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #13 Fearless Eagle 2nd
Best Value: #14 Lunar Fleet 5th
Next Best: #1 Il Postino 7th
Super Add: #15 Quick Delivery WON ($5.20)

<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-4-5-10
6: 2-10-13
7: 1-3-4-8
8: 4-6
9: 13

4x3x4x2x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

$.50 CENT Pick 5 (10-2-8-4-15) 4 Correct Paid $6.55

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-10-13
7: 1-3-4-8
8: 4-6-12
9: 1-13-14-15

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 P4 (2-8-4-15) Paid $77.25

The key to the $308 P4 and sassy P3 returns at Arcadia was the opinion that Always a Princess was the only other horse to consider with Blind Luck in the El Encino. In that situation, the public is overwhelmingly going to opt to single the Jerry Hollendorfer filly that receives the 3yo female statuette tonight on Collins Ave. That’s opens the door for even the smallest player to capitalize on overlays in the multi pools as a result. The P3’s that featured Always a Princess, who from my viewpoint was getting back to her best trip around two turns and figured hard to reel in on the slick SA strip, paid $160 (twice the parlay) and $113 (25% above the parlay). The nightcap provided one of the rare pleasures in horse play, as I was live to 4 for the P4, and three of them grappled at the wire for the win. 8-1 Our Last Monte would have boosted the payoff by $500, but favored Resplendently would not be denied for Brice Blance and Tom Bell.

All in all a fun day and a nice recovery from Saturday’s machinations and lessons in frustration. Hope you did well! Martin Luther King Jr. Day provides a full slate of racing action, with some excellent stakes scheduled including the San Marcos and San Pedro at SA, Jimmy Winkfield at AQU, Native Dancer at LRL and Smarty Jones at OP. Full coverage and the Weekend Review this morning on ATR!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Fiery Forest 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Raphael Alexandro 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Bulls and Bears 3-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Would be delighted to take a stand against underlaid #3 Stormandaprayer (9-5), but ‘first time Pletcher’ for hard to please client Bobby Flay makes her hard to deny. If hustling Lopez on Zito’s #7 Alla Prima gets latched on early to Cohen and the ML choice, then you might very well get a perfect trip set up for one of the stalker types in here. Quirky group. Note that #5 Annual Appeal is cross-entered for the ALW feature today at Philly..

Most Likely: #3 Stormandaprayer 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Annual Appeal 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Bells of Concerto 3-1 5th

8th: 27th Jimmy Winkfield, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Rift has drilled 4 times since the maiden win 37 days ago..

Most Likely: #1 Rift 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Royal Currier 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Fort Hughes 9-5 WON ($4.80)

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (Super)

This is a very tricky race..

Best Value: #5 Lagniappe 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 My Honey Laurie 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Katy’s Office Girl 7-5 6th
Super Add: #3 Hear Her Roar 20-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-7
7: 1-3-5
8: 1
9: 1-2-3-5-9

3x3x1x5 = $45

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

ALL RACES ARE OFF THE TURF

5th: CLM, 4+, OFF TURF (1m) (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Marquet Cat WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1 Gimme Credit 2nd
Best Value: #2 Flyin Trey 4th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sparkling Spirit 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Zuber 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Hugh and Me 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #7 Lesson Learned 5-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Signsealndeliver 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Furious Run 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 No Peace at All 8-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #8 SCR

8th: ALW/NC, F&M-4+, OFF TURF (5f) (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Trippi’s Sailor 5th
Next Best: #4 Suzzona 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Freedom Land WON ($18.00)

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, OFF TURF (1m) (Super)

Best Value: #6 Introvert WON ($53.60)
Next Best: #1 Cartier Lady –
Exotics Use: #2 A Perfect Squeeze 4th
Super Add: #12 Dattts Appealing 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-7-10
7: 3-9-11
8: 1-4-8
9: 1-2-6-8

4x3x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/3/1/6) Paid $2,939.30