Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Rough GP sledding returns; $41k P5 C/O Thursday

Thursday, February 17th, 2011
Full circle at Gulfstream these days as after struggling at the beginning of the meet and then scoring for several weeks, I’m back to having trouble finding and stringing together winners. $41k P5 carryover today after a particularly vexxing slate Wednesday that produced a Rainbow 6 hit and $50k late P4…

Late getting the opinions up after a big Thursday ATR…

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Mine N Gems 4-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Double Holiday 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Another Success 3-1 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #1 Forward Observer 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Custers Last Stand 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Bull Hole 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Grand Reality 4-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Malibu Mike 15-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Madness n’ Mayhem 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Bluegrass Jet 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Yankee Kitten 6-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Summer in Giza 10-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Longboarder 4-1 7th
Best Value: #8 SCR
Next Best: #5 Estimate 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Devon Rock 6-1 2nd

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Charlie Papa 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Bling Bling Girl 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Girl Bar 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Shimmering Tina 12-1 9th

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 1-8-9-11
6: 4-5-10
7: 1-3-10
8: 4-5-6-8
9: 7

4x3x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-7-10
7: 1-3-10-11
8: 4-5-6-8
9: 7-10

4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64

Raceweek starts with fun Gulfstream betting card

Wednesday, February 16th, 2011
GULFSTREAM

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 DEPUTY DARLING 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss Muffin 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #2 Bon Bon 20-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Sweet Like Sugar 6-1 6th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 R Gypsy Gold 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Wooley Bird 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Nicky’s Way 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Indy Annestesia 8-1 5th

7th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Niagara Thunder 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Crown the Chief 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Harken Up 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Tom Kitten 5-1 8th

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Old Master Expert 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Ari C 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Film Making 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Suntracer 10-1 9th

9th: CLM, 4+, 1m (Super)

Best Value: #15 Evil Powder 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stage Deli 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Targe 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Later Gater 6-1

<$25 P5 Play:

5: 9
6: 1
7: 1-4-9
8: 4-5-7-9
9: 2-4-8-15

1x1x3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-8
7: 1-4-9
8: 1-3-4-5-7-9
9: 2-4-8-15

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

TAM chalk can’t offset 2nds; SA offers nice C/O

Sunday, February 13th, 2011
Thoroughly maddening day Saturday as a bad case of seconditits invaded the plays. Other than the chalkfest results at Tampa, I could not string winners together, and nowhere was the frustration more irksome than at Aqueduct where photos and late overhauls dashed the multis including the P6 try. The big sophomore events ended up surprisingly humdrum, as Brethren’s Sam Davis win was uninspiring, ahead of complete flops from Tapizar and Comma to the Top. The Anthony’s Cross/Riveting Reason finish in the Lewis was exciting I suppose, but neither are going to be serious Triple Crown runners. And though Silver Medallion looked good winning the El Camino Real, the Asmussen-Mike Ryan Badge of Silver bay is more a candidate for the Virginia Derby than the Kentucky Derby.

Hope you did OK Saturday… Wasn’t going to cap today as I’m heading to Aqueduct for Lloydobler in the 2nd, but the Santa Anita carryover is too inviting to pass up.

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$129k P6 carryover starts here..

Best Value: #7 Bouree 4-1
Next Best: #3 Silver Luna 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Whiskers and Rye 9-2
Super Add: #8 Officerwasispeedin 3-1

5th: CLM, 4yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Stephen’s Got Hope 3-1
Next Best: #6 Camp Victory 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Gallant Gent 5-1
Super Add: #5 Cardiff Giant 3-1

6th: S/ALW, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Pleasant Earth 4-1
Best Value: #3 Marcy’s Woods 8-1
Next Best: #4 Espirito Santo 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Jolly Ollie 9-2

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 9f-Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Catsalot 5-1
Next Best: #3 Andina 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Gripsholm Castle 8-1
Super Add: #6 Wyanetta 8-1

8th: 37th La Canada (G2), 4yo-F, 9f (DD)

Tactical edge again belongs to Baffert filly that we loved in the El Encino. Interesting horse here is of course Shirreffs-Wygod Dynaformer miss that aced the QE II Cup last fall and tries dirt for the first time. Has been working very well over it, and may have been speed-sharpened by the 1:10.4 bullet 2 weeks ago..

Best Value: #2 Harmonious 7-2
Next Best: #4 Blind Luck 1-1
Exotics Use: #3 Always a Princess 6-5

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

$40k Super Hi-5 carryover here..

Most Likely: #6 Rocks So Hard 5-2
Best Value: #1 Photo Shopped 8-1
Next Best: #10 Robbie’s War 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Husband’s Folly 4-1
Super Add: ##4 Lemou 20-1

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-7
5: 1
6: 1-3
7: 1-3-4-6
8: 2-4
9: 1-6

3x1x2x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4
7: 1-3-4-6
8: 2-3-4
9: 1-6

3x4x3x2 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Action nationwide as Derby Trail season gets serious

Saturday, February 12th, 2011
AQUEDUCT
5th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$22,228 P6 carryover starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Bill Senior 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Appledore 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #2 La Festa E Domani 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Digital Joe 7-2 2nd

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Now Now Girl 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Smooth Bore 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Southern Sunsation 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Zazzle 9-2 8th

7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Surfactant 7-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 Mr. Hopps 12-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Greeley’s Law 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Closingtothewire 20-1 8th

8th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Run to Grand Ave. 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Auditorium 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Onzain 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Dontquityourdayjob 20-1 9th

9th: 17th Dearly Precious, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

For a six horse field, this is an interesting little race..

Most Likely: #3 Coax Liberty 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #4 Wild About Sonny 2-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Overseas Market 5-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Jello Shot 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Ex Pat 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Bwana Jake 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Zone Breaker 8-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 8-10
6: 2-5-8
7: 1-7
8: 4-8
9: 3-4
10: 1-7

2x3x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-7
8: 4-6-8
9: 1-3-4-6
10: 1-6-7

2x3x4x3 = $72

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Jaguar Paw 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Groomedforvictory 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Equestrio 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Tripofalifetime 12-1 8th

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #14 Lago Mar Lady 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Juanita 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Cedar Grove 4-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Ayouilove 6-1 5th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult set with some firsters that are well-meant (KMc, Zito, Tagg, Catalano, etc.) and runners with experience from Servis and Terranova are OK..

Best Value: #7 On Lockdown 10-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Backdown 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Rattlesnake Bridge 6-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #9 Big Herman 4-1 4th

9th: CLM, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific betting affair with about 8-9 eligible for laurels. Sprinkle your tickets liberally with prices..

Best Value: #3 Gaelic Storm 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Feels All Right 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Surely Sent 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Intercoastal 8-1 11th

10th: 33rd GP Sprint Championship (G2), 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Soaring Empire 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Coffee Boy 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Tackleberry 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #8 Guam Typhoon 10-1 7th

11th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bruce N Autumn 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Safety Squeeze 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Screenplay 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Hawser 12-1 8th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 6-7-14
8: 2-4-7-9-11-12
9: 2-3-6-10
10: 1
11: 4-9

3x6x4x1x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-7-9-11-12
9: 2-3-6-10
10: 1
11: 4-5-8-9-10-12

6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

Very fun sequence with the 3 stakes all providing upset opportunities..

9th: 28th Florida Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Turf (P4, DD, Super)

Class of the field certainly the big connection types from Motion, McPeek, Mott and Proctor, but first turf jump up efforts Whodoesthat, Ipswich Bay and Mistress Gallop intrigue plenty at boffo totes..

Most Likely: #6 Dynamic Holiday 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #10 Mistress Gallop 20-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Holidaysatthefarm 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Niji’s Grand Girl 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (6-12) Paid $23.90
$1 Trifecta (6-12-11) Paid $86.10

10th: 31st Sam F. Davis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

TB Derby prep took on added importance with last year’s graded stripe, and draws a solid field for this edition. Like the filly stake ahead of it, some viable price options are available…

Most Likely: #7 Beamer 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bretheren 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 Adulare 12-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Washington’s Rules 9-2 8th

11th: 12th Endeavor (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-Turf (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Seniga 15-1 9th
Next Best: #5 C. S. Silk 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Silver Reunion 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #9 Kiss Mine 9-2 5th

12th:CLM, 4+, 1m-Turf (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Gold Pagentry 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Stanley G. 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Harlan Rush 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #9 On Joline 8-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-10-11-12
10: 2-7-10
11: 3-5-7
12: 5-7-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (6-10-3-3/6/10/13) Paid $77.75

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

May be too late for FTS in this to get involved in Santa Anita Derby chase, but there are a number of serious horses here including overwhelming choice Albergatti, the Stonestreet Bernardini homebred out of My Miss Storm Cat who may force his way onto the TC circuit if things go well today..

Most Likely: #3 Albergatti 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Caducito 12-1
Next Best: #5 Indian Knight 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Purely Awesome 8-1 3rd

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 3 in 1st/2nd with 4-568 (1x4x3x2 = 24 x 2 = 48 x .10 = $4.80)

.10 Super (3-6-8-5) Paid $5.54

6th: 73rd Robert B. Lewis (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Not a great deal of mystery to this edition of the Lewis.. Am interested to see if there’s dirt prowess under the hood of Mandella’s ready-to-jump Ten Devils..

Most Likely: #4 Tapizar 4-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Ten Devils 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Riveting Reason 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Anthony’s Cross 6-1 WON ($18.60)

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #3 My Summer Slew 7-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Leroy’s Dynameaux 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Cherokee Heaven 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Red Alert Day 6-1 6th

8th: 69th Santa Maria (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

St Trinians is a bet-against off injury break and trying first time on dirt..

Best Value: #5 Zardana 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Mona de Momma 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Washington Bridge 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 St Trinians 8-5 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-Turf (DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Teroda 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wave of Applause 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Orangeblackandgold 8-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Scarlet Starlet 8-1 6th

10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Zulu King 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Cynical Wager 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wild Hombre 8-1
Super Add: #11 Peacock Alliance 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Hi-5 Play: #4 Swongs 12-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5
8: 3-5-6
9: 1-4-6-9
10: 1-2-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Impossible GP winners lead to $30k P5 carryover

Friday, February 11th, 2011
Chalky success at AQU Thursday and another day of big-priced, random-feeling winners at GP… $30k carryover for the P5 Friday on a very bettable sequence. Hope you enjoyed a brimming ATR today with Gus & Nick, Ken McPeek, Bret Calhoun, Mig, Tom Proctor, Hammer, Amy Zimmerman and Jerry Hollendorfer. If you missed it, catch the stream, archive or podcast for tons of thoughts from cappers and trainers ahead of the big weekend!

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

P5 with $30k carrover starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Broken Sound 5-2 4th
Best Value: #14 Afleet Magic 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Mr. Sluggo 10-1 7th
Super Add: #9 All On Me 4-1 3rd

7th: S/ALW, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Sudden War 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Newfound Desert 12-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Whirling Thunder 6-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Ducduc 8-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Stormberg 3-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Clear Attempt 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Hammersmith 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Pleasant Run 6-1 5th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 5f-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Aldomear 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #9 Artful Run 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Mr Mojito 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Close It Out 10-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Arrakis 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #16 Santa 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 In for a Song 10-1
Super Add: #3 Key to the Empire 5-1 3rd

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 6-14
7: 2-7-9-12
8: 3-4-8
9: 2-9-11
10: 4-16

2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7-9-12
8: 3-4-7-8
9: 2-9-11
10: 4-8-16

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72