Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Soldat aces main, Lightening strikes, Flashpoint explodes

Sunday, February 27th, 2011

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Six of 9 signed on exit Hyper’s graduation race three weeks ago (2/6). Favored 5yo Perflect Afleet (5/2) debuted in that spot and looms the horse to beat after a slightly impeded start. Second choice Silver Rock (3-1) feels like a horse that is running out of chances, failing to emerge from photographs with a win. Alisal (8-1), Photo Shoot (12-1) and Imaging (4-1) all appear ready to improve second off breaks. And capable Schettino brings back Argentine Promovedor Glory (12-1), who looked like a horse with a future when on display at Saratoga last summer. He returns to grass routing today, enjoys Castellano’s services, and will be a price..

Best Value: #3 Promovedor Glory 12-1
Next Best: #4 Perfect Afleet 5-2
Exotics Use: #8 Imaging 4-1
Super Add: #2 Photo Shoot 12-1

8th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Another tough turf test, and Tapitsfly runs back trying to gain lost career momentum. Note that her 3yo half sister Flying Vision (Pollard’s Vision) runs in today’s 5th..

Most Likely: #1 Romin Robin 4-1
Next Best: #2 Sweet Theresa 5-1
Best Value: #4 Indigo North 15-1
Super Add: #7 Project Rose 12-1

9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #2 Royal Straight..

Most Likely: #4 Christmas for Liam 3-1
Next Best: #6 Where’s Sterling 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Palatine Hill 5-1
Super Add: #1e Hamm entry 6-1

10th: 45th Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Good edition of this lawn mile with a plethora of pace packing the post..

Best Value: #1 Society’s Chairman 6-1
Next Best: #2 Zifzaf 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Yankee Fortune 3-1
Super Add: #4 Twilight Meteor 8-1

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

SCR #8 Dancing Compass & #10 Runninglikeanangel..

Most Likely: #3 Enchanted Mesa 4-1
Next Best: #9 Mayday Maria 3-1
Best Value: #7 Bay Head Beauty 10-1
Super Add: #14 Royal Lahaina 5-1

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 3-4-8
8: 1-2
9: 4-6
10: 1-2-4-6
11: 3-9

3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-4-7
9: 3-4-6
10: 1-2-4-6
11: 3-7-9

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

‘Honor/Serve’ return anchors strong Fountain card

Saturday, February 26th, 2011
GULFSTREAM
POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Cho 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Achaemenes 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #3 Trouble for Tiger 6-1 5th

2nd: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 I Dreamt I Was 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Albali 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 To the Point 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 You’re too Wild 10-1 2nd

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P3, PDD, Super)

First of the day’s important soph tests, with a few auditioning for Florida Derby tries..

Most Likely: #6 Nacho Business 4-1: Breen considered Fountain bid.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Arch Traveler 2-1: Jerkens tests Sky Mesa’s route ability.. WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Cool Blue Red Hot 3-1: Easy to root for classy Penna.. 5th

4th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Screenplay 8-1 WON ($16.20)
Next Best: #4 Show the Way J 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Rules of Honor 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Wild Entry 12-1 5th

5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 11.5f-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Tough to decipher, well-matched field for three turn turf affair that anchors early quad; Spread in the multis as this is a roulette wheel race that will be determined by trip..

Best Value: #3 Tenth Wish 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Sporty 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Beckham Bend 6-1 WON ($21.80)
Super Add: #11 Bucheron 15-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4-9
3: 2-6
4: 1-4-6
5: 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-11

2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Though non-stake 3yo focus seems to be on today’s 3rd race, there’s plenty of potential for serious players to emerge from this group..

Most Likely: #3 San Pablo 8-5: Imposing fave but not invincible.. WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Point of Entry 6-1: Expect forward progress from Pine Island sib.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gold Necessities 8-1: Note money Breen-Hall grey took in 2yo debut.. 6th
Super Add: #1 Minister Colin 20-1: If lacking talent, Proctor had TAM as option.. 4th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Mind-bendingly difficult group..

Most Likely: #9 Guys Reward 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Asphalt 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Dean’s Kitten 10-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Mikoshi 12-1 WON ($13.60)

8th: 24th Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

ALW faces like Hot Summer and Oh Carole are highly viable options to the 4 returnees from the Forward Gal..

Best Value: #2 Hot Summer 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Oh Carole 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 R Heat Lightening 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #9 Dancinginherdreams 5-2 2nd

9th: 58th Hutcheson (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Wickedly fun group with speed on speed lined up. Expect frantic pace. KMc told ATR audience that Crossbow may opt for next week’s Gotham at AQU, and he has indeed been SCR’d..

Most Likely: #3 Travelin Man 5-2: Brilliant debut, 5 drills since; Can’t fault.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Little Drama 20-1: Similar Fawkes stunt? Big Drama winning ’09 Swale.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Manicero 12-1: Happy to include any overlaid Calder sprinter.. 8th
Super Add: #8 Black N Beauty 8-1: Back to right trip; Holy Bull enhanced in NoLa.. 9th

10th: 65th Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

#2 Derby prospect To Honor and Serve makes soph debut here against group that was slightly impuned by demuring of Dialed In. Mrs. Weber’s best Triple Crown trail hope since High Fly certainly doesn’t need to win, but Mott trainee is most likely very close to 100% for undertaking. Soldat’s 2 wins both came in curious scenarios, (slop last, weak juvy lawn stake MDN win), which makes him in my mind a player needing to prove himself on a fast dirt surface. Beyond the two faves, it is largely a group of suspects looking to earn their way into the upper echelon of sophomores..

Most Likely: #7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Soldat 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: ##8 Shackleford 8-1 5th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Hardrocker 6-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Factual 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Foolish Tiger 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Best Act 8-1 5th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 6-7-9
8: 2-4-5-9
9: 3-6
10: 7
11: 1-4-6-8

3x4x2x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-5-9
9: 3-6-9
10: 1-2-7
11: 1-4-6-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQU P4, Santa Anita spot play to start race week

Thursday, February 24th, 2011
AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Go Unbridled 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Moshe Diane 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Lady Apple 30-1 7th
Super Add: #2 SCR

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Exalt 2-1 WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #4 Forty Prayers 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Sourceofthenile 9-5 6th
Super Add: #3 Pavlov’s Dog 12-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Jack On the Rocks 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #2 Dixie Notion 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Poppa’s Pick 9-5 3rd

9th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (No Super-SCR 1-3-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sun Dance Moon 2-1 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Ryan’s Gift 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Idolatry 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Kid Tornado 5-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6-7
7: 1-2-4
8: 2-3-5
9: 7-9

4x3x3x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1/2-2-5-1/3/5/9) Paid $88.00

SANTA ANITA – SPOT PLAY

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th (6:04pm ET): OC/N3X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Kelly Leak 9-2: Timing right 2nd/break & toting three sharp spins to downhill undertaking.. WON ($11.60)

Risen Star, plus at NoLa; Stakes, MSW’s top GP slate

Saturday, February 19th, 2011
FAIR GROUNDS
3rd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Red Ace 4-1: Note bulbous 9/17 J-T tandem stat.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Rack Daddy 10-1: Chased Machen & more in bow.. 8th
Next Best: #4 Bind 3-1: Stall sharp with FTS; May want more ground.. WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #9 Saracen 9-2: Asked early, often in debut; May clear.. 3rd

4th: 24th Colonel Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Due Date 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #5 Don’t Shoot 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Delano 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Royal Express 10-1 6th

5th: 45th Pan Zareta, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Beautician 4-1: Doesn’t win often, but set up suits.. WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Eagle Putt 8-1: Back to top last; Primed to move forward.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Moontune Missy 3-1: Amoss & hood could wake her up.. 4th
Super Add: #6 Wild About Marie 5-1: Thrash-Thornbury ‘now’ filly T2D.. 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #12 Grove Park 8-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Harvest Home 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Avenstoke 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Tucky 20-1 9th

7th: 30th Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo, 8.5f P6, P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Inglorious 5-1: Price generous on emerging miss.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Kathmanblu 6-5: Can’t fault; May prove better as turfer.. WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Bouquet Booth 7-2: Has done little wrong since fall.. 4th
Super Add: #6 Tapit Dancer 10-1: Stoutly-bred Tapit steady 2yo improver.. 6th

8th: 26th Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mission Impazible 3-1: Pletcher LA Derby winner 2nd/break.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Le Grand Cru 12-1: Classy 6yo dangerous stretching out.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Apart 2-1: Took time unwinding in return prep; Better today.. 3rd

9th: 24th Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Head-scratchingly deep edition with 7-8 capable on best, so it’s hard to take too short a number on a just-OK Loup Breton..

Best Value: #5 Sleepless Knight 8-1: Good spot for a fresh face.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gran Estreno 5-1: Remarkable winning 8yo bow (G3 Bradley).. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dubious Miss 8-1: Saves ground; 2nd chance for Lanerie.. 3rd
Super Add: #7 Joinem 10-1: Sneaky, troubled 3rd behind pair above last.. 5th

10th: 38th Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Louisiana Derby lead up a corker in its’ own right with full cast coming forward after humdrum, short field Lecomte 4 weeks ago. While the gate filled up with greater numbers, its’ hard to get too far past McPeek’s Rogue Romance and Howard’s Machen. Sometimes the horses that look best on paper by virtue of running the fastest races coming in are just simply best. It feels like any of the other serious contenders will need to display more than they have heretofore to best the top pair..

Best Value: #6 Machen 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Rogue Romance 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #9 Justin Phillip 8-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 3-4-5
9: 1-4-5-7-8-10
10: 1-5-6-9

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

11th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

As wild a wagering affair as you’re liable to see. Lots of big prices on sophs with good grass breeding..

Best Value: #2 Annual Update 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Dynamaker 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lookin At Tiger 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Callingahardten 15-1 4th

11th: LA-CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Cy’s Hope 9-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Cool Stream 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Donna’szippyd’jour 5-1
Super Add: # 12 Yoda Dakota 15-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-4-5
10: 1-6
11: 2-4-5-8-9-10-11-12
12: 3-10

3x2x8x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific Maiden event for sophs offers trio exiting Free Entry’s good win, and all of them, my top three below, experienced a hiccup or two in the race. KMc Storm Cat on rail is half to Point Given, and other pedigree powered players include firster Johan, full to Teuflesberg, and Zito-Pell Quiet American bay Saigon Story, half to good ALW runner Quick Delivery who won on this oval earlier in the week..

Most Likely: #12 Simbamangu 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Turnofthecat 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Escort 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Saigon Story 15-1 9th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Performing 6-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #1 Radiant Sky 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #6 Nurse Dolce 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Developing Story 4-1 8th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Respect first NA (#9 Straight Line) from skillful Attfield, but 5-2 tough to swallow from outside post this trip. Protect in multis but looking elsewhere for price boost..

Best Value: #3 Cockeyed Rooster 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Chinglish 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Nine O Wonderful 8-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #2 Moonstock 6-1 6th

9th: 21st Sabin (G3), F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very quirky edition of this stake with questionable pace scenario key to unlocking the mystery. Several here like to be on or near front with Catch a Thief and Hyperlink the entities possessing sprinter’s speed. Amazing will need to be at least forwardly placed out of the chute too, and Pletcher returnees (Awesome Maria) are almost always ‘fresh’, so potential for duel exists. If they all grapple, a meltdown is possible making even 15-1 Musical Romance viable. But it’s always as likely in these situations that everybody looks at each other coming out of the gate and the pace never develops. In that case, a first run stalker like Sassy Image could get the best trip… Freely admit to having no clue as to what happens here. Hit the ‘All’ button in multis if you can afford it because any of the 8 can win..

Best Value: #8 Sassy Image 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Hyperlink 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 SCR (11:58a)
Super Add: #3 Musical Romance 15-1 5th

10th: 16th Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Chose from whichever Attfield you wish (Musketier for me), and though distance a question, hard-hitting Rahy’s Attorney is well drawn for stretchout and may well drift upwards from the 8-1 ML. You need to be searching for altenatives to the vulnerable favorites (Prince Will I Am and Al Khali)..

Most Likely: #6 Musketier 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Rahy’s Attorney 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Stately Victor 12-1 12th
Super Add: #11 Mint Chip 20-1 10th

11th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Laconic 7-2: Washed off last; Unimaginative choice.. WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Prado Dash 8-1: Nafzger tricky off breaks; First firm turf try.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Punster 12-1: Well bred and maybe needed lawn from get-go.. 6th
Super Add: #10 Perfect Joiski 10-1: Half to Singletary.. 10th

<$20 P6 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 1-4
8: 3-6
9: All
10: 6
11: 3-5-6

2x2x2x7x1x3 = 168 x .10 = $16.80

<$100 P5 Play:

7: 1-4-6-7
8: 3-6
9: 1/SCR-5-8
10: 3-6
11: 3-5-6

4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-6
9: All
10: 3-6
11: 3-5-6

2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42

Gulfstream bombs continue to explode; P5 C/O now $172k

Friday, February 18th, 2011
The parade of crazy prices on tough-to-use horse continued at Gulfstream Thursday, this time producing a 3 of 4 P4 and double carryover in the P5 of $172k. Journeyman Orlando Bocachica, continuing to work his way back to respectability after a buzzer incident 5 years ago in Philadelphia, booted home 73-1 Joe’s Blazing Aaron in the and 59-1 Knockinelder to guarantee that the multi-race sequences would all go unhit. In the past week, winners have jumped up on a daily basis, many in hyper-competitive scrambles in lower value events, that have rendered the multis nearly unhittable. Friday’s skien looks no different, but the pool should be exorbitant.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Quirky-looking turf sprint to start things with added intrigue of 3 FTS from outstanding outfits v. 6 that have had their chances..

Most Likely: #1 Lady Chesterfield 6-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Deputy Major 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Heavy Favorite 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Arboria 10-1 7th

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Giant Sensation 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 War Clan 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Artisanal 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Sense of Pride 8-1 4th

$1 Exacta (1-5) Paid: $19.20
$1 Trifecta (1-5-9) Paid: $126.50
$1 Superfecta (1-5-9-11) Paid: $689.60

8th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very deep dime bag going a mile, and unless Pressure gets some, he could be loose and gone under excellent front end rider Solis. Should the pace get contentious, this thing could end up in anyone’s lap..

Best Value: #4 Pressure 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Coach Ryan 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Cove Star 10-1 4th
Super Add: #9 The Braveheart 10-1 10th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 11.5f-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Three turn turf route yet another reason this sequence is maddening. Host of premier grass conditioners (Biancone, Penna, Motion, Mott, Clement, et al) send well-bred-for-task candidates, including four imports, in assignment that demands pilot patience/precision..

Best Value: #6 Giants Play 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Up in Lights 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Silk Route 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 La Luna de Miel 5-1 WON ($19.80)

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Marvel Wood 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Seeyouinthecity 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Monashee Gold 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 SCR

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 1-4-5-6-8-9
7: 1-5-9
8: 4-6
9: 4-6-8-10
10: 3

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$72 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-9
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 3-4-5-6-8-10
10: 3-8

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72