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Big prices invade P4’s; $23k C/O, Lloydobler at AQU

Thursday, March 10th, 2011
In and out day Wednesday with some isolated success, but no multi-race scores as $20-$40 horses stymied $200 worth of P4 tries. At Aqueduct, a $945 quad was available thanks to $42 Citifiesta who upset the 4th and helped trip today’s $23k carryover. Gulfstream’s sequence was upended immediately by the ‘other’ first time starter in the race, Peter Pugh’s Persian Lime, who popped early and never looked back at 9-1. The P4 there returned $550+.

Finally though, it was trying the action at Laurel that proved to be worthwhile even though the P4 was elusive. Miss Fleetfoot surprised the 8th paying $23.40, and with $17 Baileys Beach before her and $15 Grinnell after, the $1 Pick 4 paid $37,717 (!) from an unexpected $203,194 pool (likely 4 winners). Grinnell was my Best Value top tab in the nightcap, and helped defray some of the day’s expenses when he went suprisingly under-bet. An earlier tri key of Hi Ho Bambino in the top two slots snared a solid $182 triple as well, so playing Maryland was absolutely a positive experience, and I encourage everybody to peruse their cards.

I ended up down a few bobs overall, but hope you did OK Wednesday… thought it was a fun afternoon. Carryover at the Big A Thursday that in a perfect world ends with Dee Tee’s Lloydobler garnering a diploma in the 9th!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N3L, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Regal Warrior 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 African Diamond 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Indy Scent 15-1 5th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Lucky Leslie 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Stoneridge 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 December Diva 7-2 WON ($9.50)
Super Add: #3 Eurosensation 3-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Small but tricky group..

Most Likely: #6 Ultimo Principe 5-2 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #5 Hardshell 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Memory Motel 4-1 3rd

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Possum Impossible 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hurricane Kitten 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Silver Over Gold 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #9 Seattle Dynasty 8-1 5th

7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Fun betting race..

Most Likely: #7 Indian Lilly 4-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #5 Lady Maureen 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Sudden Impulse 8-1 3rd

8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 All About Alex 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #9 Devilish Spirit 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Latin Rocks 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Fortheloveof Anna 10-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #4 Haystack Needle 6-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #1 Lloydobler 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Upper Afleet 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Black Diablo 12-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-6-9
5: 3-5-6
6: 8
7: 5-7
8: 4-9
9: 1-4

3x3x1x2x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 Conso Paid $87.50

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 4-5-7
8: 4-9
9: 1-4-6-10

3x3x2x4 = $72

$1 P4 (4-7-4-4) Paid $228.00

Nice ALW sequences to start raceweek at AQU, GP, LRL

Wednesday, March 9th, 2011
AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#6 Bernardette is sister of Bernardini but hasn’t run like it; #1 Royal Sighting from Pat Kelly will take some beating if she runs close to her last..Most Likely: #1 Royal Sighting 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Bernardette 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Bella Regina 12-1 6th

 

3rd: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Eager Emma 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #7 Zaphyra 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sing My Song 12-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Reprieve 3-1 3rd

4th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

SCR #2-6-7.. No Super..Best Value: #3 Bob’s Dylan 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 We Need V L T’s 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Dolan’s Rose 8-1 6th

 

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Quirky event with lots of speed in view and plenty of viable off pace/cutback candidates. Judicial Leader gets Ramon back, and Roaring Belle gets as much as 6.5# from the short prices..Best Value: #3 Roaring Belle 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Judicial Leader 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Blue Destiny 2-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Economic Tsunami 3-1 3rd

 

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1
3: 5-6-7
4: 3-5-8
5: 1-2-3-4-5

1x3x3x5 = $45

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Wildcat Code 8-5 8th
Best Value: #7 Second Market 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Valentine’s Angel 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Royal Bern 8-1 7th

3rd: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Wildly competitive N2X featuring Rene Douglas-tabbed Panamanian ‘feel good story’ Prince of Wales winner Golden Moka..Best Value: #3 Dueling Alex 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Caixa Electronica 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Hunters Bay 2-1 2nd

 

4th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Lily Rules 6-1 9th
Next Best: #10 My Mama Gator 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Italian Nany 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Amadorable 10-1 7th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Classical Chant 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #5 Nina Fever 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #9 The Man Uptown 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-10
3: 1-3-4
4: 3-6-7-8-10
5: 2-4-5-7-9

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4)

Most Likely: #2 Joe Vann 8-5 WON
Best Value: #1 (POE) SCR
Next Best: #3 Vows to Be Broken 3-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, Super)

Brutally tough ALW group; Well matched..Best Value: #7 Hi Ho Bambino 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Big Top 8-5 4th (for tote purposes)
Exotics Use: #1e Rigattieri entry 8-1 3rd/4th (3rd for tote purposes)
Super Add: #3 Baileys Beach 6-1 WON ($17.00)

 

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 5.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Comet of Love 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Tough Talkin Lady 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 I’llthinkofsumthin 4-1 7th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5f (Super)

Bad bunch o’ coconuts..Best Value: #5 Grinnell 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Next Best: #3 Distant Daylight 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mr Sammy G 5-1
Super Add: #8 Omega Trick 6-1

 

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1/SCR2-3
7: 1-2-7
8: 6-7
9: 3-4-5-8

3x3x2x4 = $72

Big Cap Day, superb Gulfstream card launch weekend

Saturday, March 5th, 2011
Took a nice swing at Thursday’s bulky P6 carry at Santa Anita, but as anticipated, tricky skein had too many mid-priced horses to get on one ticket. The sequence didn’t have a horse that reached 5-1, but still produced a $30k payout, as ‘everyone’s’ single, (Baffert’s Ranchero), fell to the second choice. Had 5 winners somewhere in the tabs, and focusing on Kathy Walsh’s firster in the nightcap was a strong notion, but Marty Jones’ 6th race winner Tonzatrouble a horse I couldn’t identify as a contender.

Hope you did well, and I know Brad Free and Rich Eng’s input was invaluable as I’ve heard from several listeners who benefitted from ATR’s coverage of the opportunity. On that note, HRTV’s Kurt Hoover and DRF’s Mike Welsch joined Gus, Nick, Hammer and I Friday to finetooth the good action at Gulfstream and Santa Anita today, and there could be many fruitful spots on which to capitalize at Hallandale and Arcadia.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Getting late in the winter stands, but this event and Santa Anita’s 6.5f 2nd (3:33p ET) well worthy of attention with sizeable number of potentially important sophs debuting or returning in both. Zito has a buzz colt in Bomber Boy, a debuting half brother of Summerly (whose first foal Kentucky Reign goes in the 7th) by Bernardini. But that one will need to be pretty special to win at first asking given the presence of Benergy, Jack London, Borrego’s Boy, Fire With Fire and Break Up the Game, who all are eligible to score having already made their career bows against some fancy types..

Most Likely: #9 Break Up the Game 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Jack London 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Borrego’s Boy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Benergy 8-1 6th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Indy’s Alexandra 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Super Slash 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Folk Dancer 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Honchis’n Ponchis 5-2 2nd

7th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Exceedingly tricky race where lawn aptitude and rider savvy will spell difference. With potential pyrite littered throughout, you want to take chances with players that will provide value and have things to like about them. Toner first turf/first as soph Empiricist is bred stoutly up and down for today’s assignment and is going to be utterly ignored on tote. And though I’ve tabbed obvious types from Mott, Brown and Kimmel underneath, 10-1 McPeek (1), 6-1 Pompay (2), 10-1 McGaughey and 12-1 Clement (12) all are worth employing in a race like this if you see something that bends your diving rod..

Best Value: #6 Empiricist 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Kentucky Reign 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Casino Host 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #5 Bombaguia 8-1 4th

8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Sprint stake disguised as an OC/ALW..

Most Likely: #1 Apriority 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #9 Tahitian Warrior 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Aikenite 4-1 2nd

9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Another superb group..

Most Likely: #1 Baletti 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Avenuesnalleyways 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Alfarabi 4-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Kindergarten Kid 8-1 6th

10th: 26th Honey Fox (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Deep and contentious, and like the rest of the turf tests today, all about price and trip. As I said Friday on ATR, Bay to Bay makes first start as 4yo, often an effort to flash improvement, is in hands of clever conditioner/ace pilot, and will be long on the board. Will need to pass many of them in the late stages, but is the right candidate at the right number..

Cherokee Queen a LATE SCR (2:15pm)

Best Value: #11 Bay to Bay 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Never Retreat 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Aviate 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Trip for A. J. 6-1 4th

11th: MSW, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Making it to this nightcap in the multis will be small consolation if tripped up by this solid group of relatively light-raced diploma seeking lawn distaffers. Deanallen’skitten appears ‘better’ than rest on paper, but that was true all the way back to Spa start!

Best Value: #1 Little Red Rider 12-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Deanallen’skitten 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockettes Escapade 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sandesque 6-1 11th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 4-5-6-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-9
10: 5-7-8-11
11: 1-10

4x1x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-7-9
9: 1-2-4-9
10: 5-7-8-11
11: 1-3-10

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Place P10, P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Trumpet Player Jay 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Justice Reigns 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 High Standards 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Seven Secrets 4-1 5th

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

As foreshadowed above, a fascinating group with several here possible for upper levels of division..

Most Likely: #2 Chico d’Oro 8-5: Edged by Albergatti; Repeat makes him tough at short number.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Rock So Hard 8-1: Baffert colt gets first try over a dirt main track.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Wilburn 5-2: Steady working $625k KEE yrlg from Stonestreet (Bernardini-Moonlight Sonata).. WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #1 Purely Awesome 6-1: Chased Albergatti & Chico in debut; Threat with improvement.. 2nd

3rd: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Classy Lion 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Honor Among Us 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Diamond Touch 4-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Ransom Demand 7-2 6th

4th: 72nd Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

As Kurt Hoover pointed out Friday on ATR, race didn’t really need many more considering balanced, well-matched bunch that assembles. At anything close to the 4-1 ML, Baffert’s returning A Z Warrior is the right fresh face..

Best Value: #5 A Z Warrior 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Turbulent Descent 1-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Zazu 2-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-2-6
2: 2-3-7
3: 1-5-8-10
4: 5 (2-3-4)

Singling A Z Warrior:: 3x3x4x1 = $36 (Or $72 at $2)
Regular ticket: 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

5th: 2nd Clocker’s Corner, F&M-4+, 6.5f-Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Top 3 finishers from G3 Monrovia plus some new shooters make this a terrific event..

Most Likely: #8 Unzip Me 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #9 Broken Dreams 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Reba Is Tops 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ash Zee 3-1 6th

8th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Liberal Arts 9-2 9th
Best Value: #5 Cat Talk 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Kingpin Ryno 4-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Tiz a Budman 6-1 WON ($11.60)

9th: 11th Kilroe (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent race but Jon White’s sharp line means you have to find a price to make this a worthwhile betting affair. For me it’s Mandella’s 2nd/break Times Gone By who has several pattern positgives to like as I outlined onj ATR Friday..

Most Likely: #2 Fluke 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Times Gone By By 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Caracortado 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Jeranimo 3-1 3rd

10th: 74th Santa Anita Handicap (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Super)

As was the case in the Malibu and Strub, the decision is whether or not you believe Twirling Candy is a bet against or too imposing to deny. On the con side, a 10th furlong is frequently the dividing mark between elongated sprint speed ability, which can get a mile and an eighth, and classic routing stayers. The fave is going to receive sustained pace pressure in this setting with a number of front end types involved including enigmatic First Dude who makes his first start for Bob Baffert off a series of sharp works and looms the play at anywhere close to his 5-1 ML..

Most Likely: #8 First Dude 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Twirling Candy 4-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Soul Candy 30-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Aggie Engineer 6-1 9th

11th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Excelling 5-1 10th
Best Value: #12 Le’ Heat 20-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Renegade Storm 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #1 SCR
Hi-5 Play: #7 Short Memo 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7
9: 2-3-4-8-9
10: 5-8
11: 1-5-6-7-12

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$126k C/O starts Big Cap Week at Santa Anita

Thursday, March 3rd, 2011
New York action produced one of the chalkiest sequences in anyone’s memory Wednesday with a $13 P4 return and shocking $102 P6. Gulfstream again had a multi-thousand P5 result tripped by a Motion-Augustion runner paying more than $50! Santa Anita could produce a lucrative sequence today with a $126k carryover on a very competitive and eclectic card. Rich Eng and Brad Free on ATR this morning to review!

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Start of the $126k carry and it feels like you need to cover the top three below to get through..

Most Likely: #2 Celtic New Year 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #6 Worth Repeating 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Achak 2-1
Super Add: #5 Falcon Rock 4-1

4th: MSW, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ranchero 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Off the Wall 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 He’s So Stylish 4-1
Super Add: #1 Green Cat 12-1 4th

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Patsy’s Lil Buddy 5-1
Next Best: #1 Entabeni 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Rule the Storm 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Hameildaeme 5-1 WON ($8.20)

6th: CLM, 3YO, 5.5F (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Ominous Thomas 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ohana Spirit 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Basic Strategy 6-1
Super Add: ##5 American Wildcat 4-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1M-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Hollemans 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Hughesy 9-2
Next Best: #9 Dahoud 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #6 Rauschenberg 4-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Will roll the dice and anticipate that Kathy Walsh firster is ready go..

Best Value: #5 Semper Augustus 6-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #6 Aqua Fever 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Titian 4-1
Super Add: #7 Kemper County 6-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 2-6
4: 4
5: 1-5-7-9/SCR10
6: 3-4
7: 4
8: 2-3-5-6-7

2x1x5x2x1x5 = 100 x $2 = $200

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-7-9/SCR-10
6: 3-4-8
7: 2-4
8: 2-3-5-6-7

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Ausable Chasm stretches out; Good late action at AQU, GP

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2011
Sorry about being so late getting opinions up… Hope all had good weekend with some good results Saturday but too many runner-up efforts Sunday. Excited about Thursday’s big $125k+ carryover at Santa Anita..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dapper Tapper 3-1
Next Best: #5 Bravo Romeo 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Ninety Five South 9-5

7th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Voyager 9-5
Next Best: #1 A Perfect Squeeze 8-5
Best Value: #9 Illgiveyouwattever 15-1
Super Add: #3 Sister Berta 20-1

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Marilyn’s Guy 8-5
Best Value: #3 No Shenanigans 6-1
Next Best: #6 Writingonthewall 5-2

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Falbala 7-5
Best Value: #3 Dance Card Filled 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 Straddler 10-1
Super Add: #8 Mama Dukes 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5
7: 1-2
8: 2-3-6
9: 1-3-5-8

3x2x3x4 = $72

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Monashee Gold 12-1
Next Best: #4 Paster’s Bad Habit 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Lighthouse Sound 4-1
Super Add: #12 Seeyouinthecity 6-1

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Starhip Nova 10-1
Next Best: #8 All Drama 6-1
Exotics Use: #1e Canani entry 5-2
Super Add: #2 Kairos 4-1

7th: MSW, F&M-4+, 7.5f-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Alpha Centuri 9-5
Best Value: #11 Dominant Currency 8-1
Next Best: #8 Broadway Ghost 6-1
Super Add: #1 Jamaican Ginger 20-1

8th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Gospel Lesson 5-2
Best Value: #5 Mr. Mojito 6-1
Next Best: #9 Itouch 5-1
Super Add: #2 Easy Over 8-1

9th: MDN CDLM, 3yo, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Best Value: #13 Conway Candy 8-1
Next Best: #1a Iwannaiwannaiwanna 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Wolverton 3-1
Super Add: 10 Dodging 4-1

<$75 P5 Play:

5: 2-4-7-8-12
6: 1-2-3-8
7: 10
8: 5-7-9
9: 1-13

5x4x1x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4-8
7: 10-11
8: 5-7-9
9: 1-7-9-10-13

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve