GP offers strong cards for their Derby-Oaks Weekend
Saturday, April 2nd, 2011At Oaklawn, chalk marched through the first three legs of the quad before goofy 22-1 shot upended the ticket. Along the way, I did nab a decent $56 exacta ($1) when 44-1 overlay Walker Bay got up for 2nd behind even money fave Ha Ha Tonka in the MSW 8th. (The Lawyer Ron sister Too Shy Shy debuted 5th, beaten a dozen lengths.) Finally at Santa Anita, firster Closer to Love in the 4th and Saravas Wild Again (In a 4 horse photo) in the 6th, spelled the difference between success and failure. The good news came in the 3rd — Fandino ticking a $57 tri — and the 5th, when Red Alert Day, Hughesy and Sir Dave produced the $82 score.
Overall, lost more than $300 on the afternoon, when I thought it was a day that I expected to be pretty productive. Hope you did OK and are excited about a big weekend at Gulfstream!
GULFSTREAM
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM, 4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #1 Moose Man 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Matt’s a Giant 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Fisherman’s Wharf 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #6 Livin Large 10-1 3rd
2nd: FL-OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Hard to fathom with the stock he has, that Arnold is 35/0-0-3 for the stand. Depeche Chat was a colt that caught my eye beating Aracharcharch in their respective debuts closing weekend at CD, and he should get Rusty off the duck..
Most Likely: #1 Depeche Chat 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Close It Out 6-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #6 Aldomear 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Shankopotamus 4-1 5th
$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $25.50
$1 Trifecta (3-1-6) Paid $98.80
$1 Double (8/3) Paid $68.10
3rd: FL-ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Holiday Flare (8-5) is no better than 3-1 Evangelical (SCR) or 4-1 Neat Lightening. And note proximity of 12-1 Nicey Nice to Neat Lightening, (SCR’d Thursday for this spot), when last tangling..
Most Likely: #7 Neat Lightening 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Holiday Flare 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Nicey Nice 12-1 5th
$1 Double (3/3) Paid $25.30
$1 Pick 3 (8/3/3) Paid $160.40
4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
#8 Date to Remember a half sister of Eddington by Bernardini. #1 Spoof is out of the under-rated MGSW Cal-bred Summer Wind Dancer..
Most Likely: #9 R Gypsy Gold 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Expresso Run 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 You’re Kidding 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Spoof 12-1 7th
5th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)
Best Value: #2 Romin Robin 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Hibaayeb 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Tapitsfly 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #4 Bay to Bay 3-1 2nd
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-6
3: 3-5-7
4: 1-4-6-9
5: 2-4-6-7
3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)
More interesting pedigrees including Seauxbelle, a Dynaformer sister of the great Left Bank (!), Hungry Island, Soaring Empire’s half by More Than Ready, and 5yo (?) Purple Trillium out of Champion Perfect Sting by Seeking the Gold, whose 3yo sister Smart Sting has been sharp in her 2 winter wins this oval..
Most Likely: #3 Alpha Centauri 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Wet One 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Rockettes Escapade 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Purple Trillium 12-1 WON ($38.00)
7th: Alligator Alley, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Longhunter 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Stormy the Cat 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 One Cool Dude 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Leave of Absence 6-1 6th
$1 Pick 3 (6/7/8) Paid $174.90
8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)
Last of the soph filly MSW’s, and yet more notable pages on hand: Savvy Supreme is a half to Commentator by Distorted Humor; Claire’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song, is out of the nice Chimichurri; Scatuorchio buyback With the Current (Mr. Greeley) is the first foal out of MSW Kresgeville; the Jackson’s Graceontour is half to multiple sprint stake winning Feline Story; and Mount Joy homebred Air Guitar is Smooth Air’s half sister by Five Star Day..
Most Likely: #10 Heir to Dare 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Savvy Supreme 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #3 Southern Campaign 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Graceontour 8-1 8th
$1 Pick 3 (7/8/4) Paid $160.40
9th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Deep and treacherous..
Best Value: #3 Dreamed to Dream 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Blue Angel 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 La Clouche 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Prize Catch 15-1 3rd
10th: 32nd Rampart (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)
Mott slogging through blah winter, but return of Unrivaled Belle might jump start his stand though co-choice Awesome Maria has a fitness edge..
Most Likely: #3 Awesome Maria 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Unrivaled Belle 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Stephanie Got Even 10-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Dubai Dancer 5-1 5th
11th: 41st Bonnie Miss (Gulfstream Oaks), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)
If R Heat Lightening wins, god bless her, because there are about 14 reasons why she is as vulnerable a favorite as you’ll find. But you are dealing with Pletcher at Gulfstream, so nothing should surprise..
Most Likely: #7 It’s Tricky 2-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Island School 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 R Heat Lightening 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #2 Triune 8-1 7th
12th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)
Most Likely: #1 Morningside Heights 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #9 Gator’s Tracks 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 It’s Not for Love 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Road Track’s Dream 6-1 7th
<$100 P5 Play:
8: 2-4-10-12
9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 2-3
11: 7
12: 1-2-9-11
4x6x2x1x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
<$50/25 P4 Play:
9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 2-3
11: 7 (6)
12: 1-2-9-11
6x2x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 ($48 if using both in the 11th)