AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 62nd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#2 R Holiday Mood has to improve considerably to best ALL of the 4 listed below. I suppose out of fear of Team Pletcher it might make some sense to use her in a back-up ticket, but she is a classic underlay/bet-against in this spot..

Most Likely: #3 Her Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ava K 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hot Summer 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #7 Royal Sighting 5-1 7th

8th: 51st Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

HRTV’s Rich Migliore said on ATR Friday that he thought Buffum looked in good flesh this week in NY. You can show some respect, but he’s hard to accept at 5-2 off the trip to the desert. J J’s Lucky Train is the kind of horse that regularly wins this event. Dr Disco is a reported SCR to run in Sunday’s NY-bred stake..

Most Likely: #3 J J’s Lucky Train 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Royal Currier 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Buffum 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Justin Phillip 5-1 3rd

9th: 111th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Super has been ADDED with scratch of Calibrachoa. On the subject of Calibrachoa, remember that speed for seven eighths (7f) is completely different than speed for three quarters (6f). Horses that have form at two turns and are turning back to 7f from classy routes are historically dangerous at this trip..

Most Likely: #7 Apriority 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Morning Line 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Yawanna Twist 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunrise Smarty 15-1 6th

10th: 87th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

You may wish to feel differently about Uncle Mo four weeks from now against 19 at Churchill Downs, but in this spot, anything other than a decisive romp by him would be shocking..

Most Likely: #5 Uncle Mo 1-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 Toby’s Corner 8-1 WON ($19.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Arthur’s Tale 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Norman Asbjornson 15-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-3-7-8
9: 7-10
10: 5

5x5x2x1 = $50

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Silver Rock 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Screenplay 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Schwartzbewithyou 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Avenstoke 6-1 7th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Irish Frankie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Jo the Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Totemtale 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Kingpost 8-1 WON ($9.00)

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very slippery group..

Best Value: #6 Ritual 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Versailles Road 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Let’s Do It 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #4 King’s Command 8-1 2nd

9th: 74th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

She wouldn’t have caught my eye necessarily, but Margolis winning Friday with Homerun Berti (7-1) first time synthetic got my attention. Bouquet Booth broke her maiden this surface going 7f, will be a long number and has shown some tactical options. If you want to go against the favorites, she, Wyomia and Delightful Mary are the ones with which you can have fun..

Best Value: #1 Bouquet Booth 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dancinginherdreams 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyomia 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Delightful Mary 5-1 7th

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Afleet’s Secret 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Cold Feet 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dancing Don 15-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Cape Hatchet 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Perfect Casting 6-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6
7: 7
8: 1-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 2-8

4x1x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 1-2-5-6-8-11

1x4x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

HAWTHORNE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 54th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OK as a betting affair. Sad as Derby ‘prep’..

Best Value: #6 Sour 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Watch Me Go 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joe Vann 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #8 Zoebear 8-1 2nd

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: 37th Las Cienegas H. (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Tanda 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Seperate Forest 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #7 La Nez 10-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$54k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 Off the Wall 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Blake 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Position A 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Gallatin’s Run 9-2 5th

7th: 52nd Arcadia (G2), 4yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Caracortado 6-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Jeranimo 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Liberian Freighter 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #4 Blue Chagall 8-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 FIRST DUDE 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Coo Cachoo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kevlar Kid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Erbeia 20-1 5th

9th: 31st Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #7 Cambina 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Wave of Applause 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Wallstreeter 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Whisper Louise 6-1 2nd

10th: 74th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Anthony’s Cross is an underlay that needs improvement to beat several here. The fun price and logical horse to key off is Indian Winter at 8-1..

Best Value: #2 Indian Winter 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Comma to the Top 7-2 2nd
Exotoics Use: #4 Silver Medallion 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Commons 4-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Hey Maria 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 One Bad Texter 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Black Wildcat 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Warren’s in to it 15-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Lily Amore 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4-8
7: 1-6
8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 13

2x2x1x4x6x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 9-10-13

1x4x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 ($72 for $1)

As a result, going 4 wide in the 8th netted overlaid winner Margie Marie at 13-2 ($15.20), which helped drive the multi to its’ generous $500+ level. Cryptolight was also a value in his score, bring back $11.60. Another positive element of the way the ticket was structured, was being alive to three runners in the nightcap including 24-1 A P Dilly. The $50 horse took an overland route while rallying under Joel Campbell, and fell a length short of the 3-2 winner. Had he been able to win, the P4 would have brought back $2,556. And that’s the position you want to be in.. alive to live horses for real money.

Keeneland opens today, and the P5/late P4 look mighty tough. They introduce the .10 P6 there this afternoon, as well as the .50 P5 which will likely draw a very big pool daily based on the Monmouth and Gulfstream successes. There is also a nice $27k carryover at Aqueduct where turf racing will commence on a course labeled “good” earlier this a.m. The 7th and 9th will go over the lawn while the Maiden Claimer 5th has been taken off…

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Some start to the P5, Who can’t win?

Best Value: #11 Unaccountable 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 Hyracotherium 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kingofthebluegrass 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Glamour Guy 4-1 9th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Canon Man 9-2 7th
Next Best: #7 A Diehl 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Grand Traverse 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Delano 4-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Elusive Action 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Lee Chapel 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Casper’s Touch 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #3 Shadow Warrior 7-2 10th

9th: 23rd Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough to take the short price on Breeders’ Cup Juvy Turf tiger Pluck after blah return in Tampa..

Most Likely: #7 Great Mills 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Pluck 5-2 7th
Super Add: #6 Adirondack Summer 4-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Asmussen firster #5 Champagne Run a half to Friesan Fire..

Most Likely: #8 Royal Start 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Cascadilla Falls 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Champagne Run 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Shatoosh 7-2 WON ($14.20)
Hi-5 Play: #12 SCR

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 5-6-8-11
7: 5-7-8
8: 10
9: 1-7/SCR
10: 1-5-6-8

4x3x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-8
8: 1-3-9-10
9: 1/SCR-7-10
10: 1-5-6-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 5.5f (P4)

Very nicely matched group. Firsters better be ready because those that have started previously look solid..

Best Value: #4 Court Journey 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Blessed Day 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Snow On the Bayou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Da Thrill 5-1 8th

$1 Exacta (7-6) Paid $33.90
$1 Trifecta (7-6-4) Paid $176.10

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

NOTE: Major SCR of #1 (POE) Elizabeth Park..

Most Likely: #9 Ransom Zip 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Sand Plum 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1a St. Vickie’s Charm 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Margie Marie 5-1 WON ($15.20)

9th: OC/N2Y, 4+, 1m (DD)

Curious that they make the Bonde invader the ML fave. Even more curious is the fact that Slew the Man, a Washington bred, is not in Hot Springs as a workmate for Sway Away, with the pair drilling on different days..

Best Value: #5 Cryptolight 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #1 Proceed Bee 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Slew the Man 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 And Music Came 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $24.00

10th: Arky-CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #10 Beautiful Simone 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Satin N Gold 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #3 A P Dilly 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 That’s Dancing 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-3) Paid $45.20

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-6-7-8
8: 1-2-3-9
9: 5
10: 3-4-10

5x4x1x3 = $60

$1 P4 (7-3-5-4) Paid $539.90

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair exit Kilroe and just seem to be better than rest here..

Most Likely: #3 Times Gone By 5-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Sebastian Flyte 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Tiz Argent 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Do It All 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-1) Paid $37.70
$1 Trifecta (6-1-5) Paid $160.20

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Havens Lake 9-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Ann’s Seven 9-2 –
Next Best: #7 Moon Stone Madness 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #6 Sipnzin 20-1 –

7th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Favored rail rallyer from Sadler received poor workout grade from Harrington for last move. The logical pick but not thrilled, as race seems ripe for upset. Walsh returnee gone eons, but she’s too clever a conditioner to ignore sending first time 4yo..

Most Likely: #1 Tiz a Bud Girl 5-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Miss Georgie Girl 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pleasing Sunrise 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Boehle 4-1 WON ($12.40)

8th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Decent group of Cali cuties. Abrams pair worked similarly together and seem eligible..

Most Likely: #7 Billa Shaka 5-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Lindz Whiz 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Distant Glow 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Nana Beach 6-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Cookinthisorthat 4-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-6
6: 1-4-6-7
7: 1-2-3
8: 1-5-7-8

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

POST-SCRATCHES

As forewarned when going against R Heat Lightening in the Oaks, it was one of those ‘Pletcher at Gulfstream’ days that are as annual as Daylight Savings Time, with the conditioner sending out five winners. He not only sent out a pentafecta of photo subjects, he swept the graded stakes for Mrs. Robsham with Awesome Maria and R Heat Lightening moving down the lane as if shot from a circus cannon. It was certainly rewarding for those that loyally back Pletcher runners, as the average price on the five was $5.90. That number was boosted greatly by Mayday Maria’s $12.20.

You can’t bet Pletcher and you can’t beat him… at least at this time of year at this racetrack. And today’s Florida Derby card has potential to be another demonstration of his barn’s authority with 13 horses in 11 of the 12 races (the $25k plating opener is the exception). Travelin Man (3rd-Swale), Hammersmith (4th-MSW), Christmas for Liam (5th-ALW), Ibboyee (6th-Sir Shakleton), Ocean Seven (7th-ALW) and Colizeo (9th-Skip Away) are all legitimate “likely” type winners. If Commandered (Appleton) and/or Stay Thirsty (Florida Derby) win, they may as well build a seperate wing in the Hall of Fame for Pletcher.

Hope everyone did well Saturday and are ready for a big Sunday. In addition to the Gulfstream action, Santa Anita has a $112k carryover on a good card that is highlighted by one of the best sprint stakes you’ll see anywhere in the Potrero Grande. Post time is 7:07pm ET, so don’t miss it.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

That’s a mighty suspicious drop on favored Mighty Score..

Best Value: #6 Lucky James 8-1
Next Best: #2 Mighty Score 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 A Centurian 4-1
Super Add: #8 Haps Alphabet Soup 10-1

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super0

Today’s maiden affairs start with Tagg’s Jack London with experience over a hatful of nice looking firsters. Zito’s Avenue B, a Len Reggio homebred by Pulpit, is half Whywhywhy and Spellbinder; KMc unveils Golden Triumph, a $400k Darley buy by Bernardini out of Jim Spence’s G3 winner Golden Sonata..

Most Likely: #7 Jack London 3-1
Best Value: #9 Golden Triumph 6-1
Next Best: #4 Avenue B 4-1
Super Add: #2 Ice Cream Man 5-1

3rd: 26th Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

“Other” Pletcher here might bw the key to getting some value in this uninteresting edition of the Swale. Funny how I haven’t seen anyone criticize GP for this weak get-together. If the Bay Shore or Woody Stephens come up like this, you’ll see the Internet light up with alarms of an example of how poor New York racing is..

Most Likely: #6 Travelin Man 4-5
Best Value: #2 Razmataz 12-1
Next Best: #4 Indiano 3-1

4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Maidens stretch to a mile here and those that have been out have edge on good looking group of firsters. As to pages, Bomber Boy (Bernardini) is a half to Summerly; Labonte (A.P. Indy) is half to one of my favorite racemares ever, Hollywood Story; Ninety Schillings out of the Whitmans’ sharp sprinter Madame Pandit, is a half to the Ron McAnally-trained G1 winning turf mare Mea Domina; Hammersmith is out of MGSW Bella Bellucci and AE Fire With Fire (Distorted Humor) is half to Cosmonaut..

Best Value: #7 Ninety Schillings 6-1
Next Best: #9 Hammersmith 4-1
Exotics Use: #13 Fire With Fire 5-1
Super Add: #5 Big Herman 10-1

5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Christmas for Liam 3-1
Next Best: #1 Hunters Bay 2-1
Best Value: #7 Jaguar Paw 6-1
Super Add: #10 Avenging Spirit 10-1

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 7 (2-4-9)
3: 6
4: 7-9
5: 8

Main: 1x1x2x1 = 2 x $15 = $30
Backup: 3x1x3x1 = 9 x $2 = $18

6th: 2nd Sir Shackleton, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Safe Trip 10-1
Next Best: #5 Ibboyee 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 3-1
Super Add: #9 Nathan’s H Q 10-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Like Saturday’s 9th, a deep and treacherous turf ALW. And as we did yesterday when employing a half dozen, 2-4-6-7-8-10 are the includes if you are playing multis through this event (P6, P3’s, DD’s)..

Best Value: #4 Devon Rock 8-1
Next Best: #7 Hariolus 6-1
Exotics Use: #2 Mobilizer 4-1
Super Add: #6 Michael Rules 12-1

8th: 60th Arthur A. Appleton (G3), 4+, 1,-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

As tough as ALW above. Appears to be enough pace pressure to keep Little Mike honest throughout. Will try to connect with prices keying off Cherokee Artist who looks like a grapefruit in this spot..

Best Value: #2 Cherokee Artist 8-1
Next Best: #7 Successful Mission 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Asphalt 10-1
Super Add: #6 Riviera Cocktail 6-1

9th: 24th Skip Away (G3), 4+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Colizeo 3-1
Best Value: #3 Our Dark Knight 6-1
Exotics Use: #10 S. S. Stone 8-1
Super Add: #8 Jardim 10-1

10th: 60th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Important but quirky edition of this meet highlight with free-running Flashpoint certain to take them a long way. The key is how far he wants to go, and it is not outlandish to wonder if he can get to the line if unchallenged. The three inside horses — Soldat, To Honor and Serve and Arch Traveler — are the focus in this $1,000,000 event, as they figure to sit comfortable trips with the Dutrow grey in their sights. Dialed In is an underlaid 2-1 second choice, and you won’t make any money here at all if the top candidates dominate the pay slots. I’ll approach the race trying to get 20-1 Arch Traveler into a key position, with the race reminding me of Centennial’s eventful 2006 Fountain of Youth visit when Corinthian was DQ’d for mauling First Samurai..

Best Value: #3 Arch Traveler 20-1
Next Best: #1 Soldat 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 To Honor and Serve 4-1
Super Add: #8 Flashpoint 6-1

11th: OC/N3X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Hey look! It’s ANOTHER horse out of Champion Perfect Sting.. #6 Perfect Bullet..

Best Value: #9 So Elite 12-1
Next Best: #3 Mystic 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Hudson Steele 6-1
Super Add: #4 Deal Making 10-1

11th: MSW, 3+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Our Noble Heart a half to Majesticperfection; White Hill (SCR)a half to Take Charge Lady; Note draw in of #15 Complete Dyno (20-1) who is an exotics candidate first time Sheppard and first time turf..

Most Likely: #10 Perfect Afleet 5-2
Best Value: #2 Our Noble Heart 15-1
Next Best: #3 Imaging 8-1
Exotics Use: #9 Bluember 12-1
Super Add: #15 Complete Dyno 20-1

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 2-6-7-8
9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 10

4x2x6x2x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8
11: 3-9
12: 2-3-9-10-11-15

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve