Hard to decribe Thursday’s P6 action at Hollywood as anything but heartbreaking. Came live 2×3 to last pair with $15 and $20 winners in tow, but had to settle for $1,200 worth of conso when Unzip Me fell at 3-5 to uncovered and aptly named Broken Dreams. Disappointing as it was to miss out on the $48k payday, I heard from several people that did well taking in the opinions, and one that took down the sequence for their first P6 hit ever, which is endlessly gratifying. Another carryover to start the weekend, this time at Belmont…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Starsilhouette 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Australis Princess 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Decennial 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #3 To the Point 3-1 6th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Royal Majesty 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Thunder Chief 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Star of New York 6-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Not that he figures prominently today, but #6 Ur (Giant’s Causeway) is a half to the outstanding Island Sand (Tabasco Cat), who in 2004 beat Society Selection in the Acorn and was 2nd to Ashado in the Kentucky Oaks..

Most Likely: #1 Skorton 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Finale 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Demon’s Deputy 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Knock Rock 10-1 6th

$1 Pick 3 (5-5-2) Paid: $35.75

7th: S/HCP, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Fisherman’s Wharf 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Close to the Vest 15-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #2 Unbridled Heat 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Six Flings 12-1 –

$1 Pick 3 (5/2/6) Paid $170.00
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $55.00
$1 Trifecta (6-2-4) Paid $144.25

8th: Sometime Thing, 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

For a six horse overnight stake, this is a very nicely matched group. Indian Lilly is the only one of the set that would be a surprise. Savvy Supreme and You’re Kidding are the only parties especially inclined to being up front, and that frequently translates to horses running 1-2 all the way around. Dominguez will have a good view of what’s happening on Coax Liberty, and she may be very dangerous in his hands based on how she won the 11/12/10 Philly ALW last year. Victoria’s Wildcat deserves a mulligan for the muddy Acorn. Good, good race..

Best Value: #6 Coax Liberty 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #2 Savvy Supreme 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 You’re Kidding 3-1 5th

$1 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $305.00
$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $19.40

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Mexique 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Stella Di Sicilia 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Vintage Heirloom 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Marblehead Manor 5-1 WON ($15.80)

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-5
5: 1-5
6: 1-2
7: 4
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 4

3x2x2x1x4x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3
7: 2-4-6-8
8: 2-4-5-6
9: 4-5-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Return to New York from Florida Thursday after 2 very pleasant weeks. Preparations for ‘At the Races’ 5th season broadcasting from Carolina Barbecue in the Saratoga backyard are in full swing, and everything points to a great 7 week stand at the Spa. As good as summer racing is when Del Mar (Wednesday) and Saratoga open (Friday), the last several weeks and weekends have provided top flight entertainment and wagering opportunities already. Flirted with P6 score at Belmont Saturday, but had to settle for the $140 conso and solid $383 P4. There were some nice numbers to poach in the Delaware and Summit of Speed sequences as well. Hope everybody did well… Hollywood offers another midweek carryover Thursday — this one almost $110k. When we last encountered this opportunity, two weeks ago, the total pot soared towards $1,000,000.

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Top pair should get us through first leg..

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #6 Entabeni 4-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Subpeona the Dress 2-1 4th

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If Town Belle doesn’t win this, don’t know when she will..

Most Likely: #6 Town Belle 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 On Your Mark 2-1 7th
Best Value: #4 She Can Roar 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Team Builder 7-2 5th

5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Trickiest event of the sequence. If it’s not Madeoftherightstuf (2-1), then it’s anybody..

Most Likely: #8 Madeoftherightstuf 2-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Nofty 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #4 Kingpin Ryno 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Valen 10-1 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group..

Best Value: #5 Legal Separation 6-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #4 Chiloquin 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Gator Warrior 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Master Chef 2-1 6th

7th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Unzip Me is formidable and exceedingly likely, but she’s not unbeatable..

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Seperate Forest 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Broken Dreams 3-1 WON ($7.40)

8th: Cal-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Firster Run for Miles may be on a par with the double-dropping fave Pedlars Way..

Most Likely: #1 Pedlars Way 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Run for Miles 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Grumpy Small Mouth 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #2 Insightful Boy 10-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Taylor Marini 20-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1/SCR–6
4: 6
5: 2-8
6: 4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

1x1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x $2 = $72

$2 Pick 6 (6/6,9/2/5/1/8) Paid $617.20 (5OF6) x 2 = $1,234.40

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-8
6: 1-3-4-5-6
7: 2-3
8: 1-3-8

3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

TURF SOFT TO START DAY. ALL ‘ON’ EXCEPT 10TH.

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$34k P6 C/O starts here..

All juvy firsters with several from prominent outfits and nicely-bred. Doesn’t look to have any surprise candidates to start the carryover sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Stat 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #4 Patriotic Lion 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Street Fight 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Backnbiz 12-1 6th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Westside Corral 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Strong Impact 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Compliance Officer 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Late SCR

7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bound to Happen 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Love Stanza Chance 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Tropical Inset 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 A New York Phillie 10-1 6th

8th: Caress, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Have to be against Rose Catherine at the short number..

Most Likely: #4 Much Rejoicing 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dominant Currency 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1a Quebrada Shiner 6-1 WON ($18.80)
Super Add: #3 Rose Catherine 5-2

9th: 53rd Man O’War (G1), 3+, 11f-IT (DD, Super)

If turf is too soft, Gio Ponti will come out. And if it is indeed soft, front end thievery by Mission Approved becomes easier. Very interesting edition of this event..

Most Likely: #7 Cape Blanco 5-2 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #5 Gio Ponti 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Al Khali 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Mission Approved 5-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 That’s Rich 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #13 Chairman Tucker 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #2b Parkinson Field 15-1 4th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 3-4
6: 1-8-9
7: 3-6
8: 4
9: 5-7
10: 12-13

2x3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

$2 Pick 6 (3-1-6-1-7-13) 5 Correct Paid $140.00

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8
8: 1-3-4-5-6
9: 1-3-4-5-7
10: 12-13

3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$2 Pick 4 (6-1-7-13) 4 Correct Paid $382.75

DELAWARE PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Robert Dick Mem. (G3), F&M-3+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Perfect Shirl 8-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Cheetah 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Dyna Waltz 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Honimiere 10-1 5th

8th: Barbaro, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive running of this, with a whole bunch of speed signed on..

Best Value: #10 Yankee Passion 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Rush Now 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Meistersinger 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 J W Blue 5-1 2nd

9th: Delaware Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Another interesting Oaks event as more and more solid sophomores in the various divisions get chances to showcase their development..

Most Likely: #7 St. John’s River 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Snow Fall 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 All for Thee 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dance Quietly 12-1 4th

<$25 P3 Play:

7: 1-4-8-9-10
8: 3-5-7-8-10
9: 5-7

5x5x2 = 50 x .50 = $25

$.50 Pick 3 (9-5-7) 3 Correct Paid $42.05

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Beso Grande 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Devilish Lady 5-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #5 May Day Rose 8-5 4th
Super Add: #6 Just Louise 4-1 6th

9th: Carry Back (G2), 3yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Smash 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cal Nation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Indiano 8-5 ($3.40)
Super Add: #4 Bulaga 10-1 5th

10th: Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Irrefutable 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Giant Ryan 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #7 This Ones for Phil 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Noble’s Promise 5-2 3rd

11th: Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Very intriguing group for Calder’s only Gr. I race..

Best Value: #6 Bella Moneta 10-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Sassy Image 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Musical Romance 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Stephanie Got Even 12-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-5-6
9: 1
10: 1-2-4-7
11: 2-3-5-6-7-10

4x1x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

Taking the annual post-Triple Crown, pre-Saratoga freshening, but too much good racing out there to completely shirk the responsibilities!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Resoundingly 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Centrina 9-5 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Speedy’s Gal 5-1 3rd

5th: Rob N Gin, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and very wide open overnight stake honoring the excellent son of Farma Way that won the Jersey Derby (G2), Hall of Fame (G2) Poker (G3), KY Cup Mile and PA Governor’s Cup for Bobby Barbara and Sabine Stable.. Stormy’s Majesty and Congaree half brother Sangaree make turf debuts here, and both are eligible to do OK over it..

Most Likely: #5 Beau Choix 8-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Sangaree 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Stormy’s Majesty 8-1 4th

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Paper Plane 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 City Scamper 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Page by Page 6-1 WON ($30.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Senora Dubai 10-1 3rd

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally well-matched group, and until I see SCR’s, will plan on swinging for the fences. With Linda Rice having Quick Money in here and eligible for laurels, Pegasus Tommy D., (cross-entered in Saturday’s 6th), may very well come out. Can’t Refuse is entered in Friday’s $25k CLM 7th and is 15-1 there too..

SCR #9 Can’t Refuse..

Best Value: #7 Chernobyl’s Hero 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Vose the Host 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Saratoga Steve 10-1 6th

8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Yet another tough set..

Best Value: #7 Katskill Bay 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 The Zipster 2-1 WON ($12.60)

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Risky Rachel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Jackie Mo 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sentimental Lass 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #1 Fortheloveof Anna 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-6-7
7: 1-3-7-8
8: 3-6-7
9: 1-3-8-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Using a push of the ‘all’ button in the 6 horse Futurity proved highly productive Sunday, as the longest shot on the board — $30 Jack’s in the Deck — jumped up and drubbed the field to trigger a heavily overlaid $1,036 P4. It was a delightful score for a $54 investment, as the rest of the day’s surprises — especially Tamarind Hall’s shocker in the G3 Bed ‘o Roses for Englehart and Cohen — stopped most multi-race tickets and helped push the carryover (now $45,867) into today. Hope you did well! Opinions below and plenty of recapping and previewing on today’s ATR… A safe and happy 4th to all!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bad horses win bad races, but it’s ill-advised to get too creative to start the sequence. We ‘need’ the obvious horses to run, because fishing deep on the P6 play here isn’t prudent..

Most Likely: #5 Haya’s Boy 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Pawnee Red 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Gypsy Warrior 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Robbie’s Turn 15-1 4th

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $4.60
$1 Trifecta (9-5-3) Paid $11.10
$1 Superfecta (9-5-3-6) Paid $63.00

6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sheraguska 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Gentle Edwin 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Show Trial 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Merlin Bay 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $11.20
$1 Trifecta (7-4-2) Paid $20.30

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Atitlan 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mightylover 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Medieval Sword 8-1 WON ($18.20)
Super Add: #6 Dunwoody 7-2 10th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $24.60
$1 Trifecta (9-3-1) Paid $81.25

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Good race with deep field of interesting contenders. Excellent wagering opp, especially if you’re not a big multi-race player..

Most Likely: #1 Pretty Cozzy 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Winged Bandit 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Best Value: #8 Glory in Motion 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Oatka Ida Rose 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $68.00
$1 Trifecta (5-8-7) Paid $440.00

9th: 64th Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

A lot of speed signed on here. Should we ‘expect’ a collapse or just be prepared should one occur? Pure sprint PA-bred Quantum Miss is a filly Tony Dutrow told ATR listeners about over the winter, and if she continues to advance, or even simply holds form, she may be flat out faster than these. That 3-1 looks like a beach ball..

Most Likely: #4 QUANTUM MISS 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Alienation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Pomeroys Pistol 4-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #4 Big Apple Lady 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Another Please 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Malibu Spice 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Siwanoy Lila 9-2 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 2-4-7-8
7: 1-3-9
8: 1-5
9: 4
10: 1-3-4

1x4x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6-9
8: 1-3-5-6-7-8
9: 4-5
10: 1-3-4

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

PARK – PHILADELPHIA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

9th: 13th Dr. James Penny Memorial H., F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Excellent edition of this race which may find a number attached to it next year based on this group. Idea to make money here is beating the underlaid entry and high profile Motion runners..

Best Value: #2 Strike the Bell 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daveron 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Desert Sage 9-2 4th

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: 21st Firecracker H. (G2), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Omniscient 20-1: 2nd/break; Prepped on lawn; Saves ground 10th
Next Best: #1 General Quarters 3-1: Back to lawn 2nd off break; Not a fan, but.. 7th
Exotics Use: #4 El Caballo 9-2: Also back on grass and real threat on best.. 9th
Super Add: #3 Mister Marti Gras — SCR’D

SCR Add: #9 Strike Impact 8-1 3rd