Rain may not have fallen Sunday at Saratoga, but a few happy tears were generated when Allen Iwinski earned his first G1 win as a trainer in the Vanderbilt with Sean Avery. The Saratoga winner’s circle is almost always the ‘happiest place on earth’ to begin with, but given the Midatlantic conditioner’s exit from the sport two years ago for a bout with life-threatening hepatitis and the travails of Sean Avery himself, it was a particularly joyous scene.

In addition to the individual accomplishment, Iwinski’s success ended a quartet of victories by lesser known horsemen in the Spa standards over the weekend, with Mike Puype, Jimmy Bond and Stan Hough finding the end zone in the prior three major events. In terms of sending a message of hope for the ‘rank and file’ training community that doesn’t have 200-300 horses in their alleged care, the weekend could not be a more welcome or heartening. The 4 horsemen have combined in their collective careers for nearly 5,200 wins and earnings of over $116,000,000, and prove that a good trainer can get a good horse to the highest level. If more were given a chance to do likewise, they would.

For wagering purposes, Sean Avery’s win was delightful as well, as his $36.20 tote and $113 exacta with .70 Trappe Shot made the challenging afternoon bountiful. As suggested for approaching Sunday’s racing, you needed to adjust your thinking to the conditions, and even novice players had to see that speed was nearly unstoppable on the Spa main all day. With that in mind, Sean Avery at 17-1 was a glaring opportunity with his Longfellow win at Monmouth as fast as anything anyone in the good field had in the PP’s. He outlasted Trappe Shot to the wire, and provided handsome returns for confidence in his authenticity.

Leaving show pony Calibrachoa off the tri play cost me that exotic punt ($860.00), but the positive imprint of another individual horse on an otherwise marginal day of handicapping was made. I wasn’t close on the multis throughout the afternoon, but Victory Island produced an $83.25 triple with Flea Flicker and Notesfromabroad in the 2nd that covered some action until the generous $52 Tar Heel Mom-Beat the Blues-Champagne d’Oro troika in the Test. The one that I’d really like to have back Sunday was Gary Gullo’s Funky Munky Mama in the 7th at 14-1.. Hope you did well. Nearly a $70k carryover Monday!

TURF: 1st race (stake) remains ON the turf; All others (4th, 7th, 8th, 10th) are OFF the turf..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Gleaming-R, 3yo, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sky Blazer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Eternal Ruler 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Seal Cove 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #8 Witor 10-1 5th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Saratoga Snacks 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 7-5 3rd/5th
Exotics Use: #5 Bay Park Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mr. Haywood 2-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stinking Creek 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Next Page 7-2 4th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Jagati 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #6 Anonymous Donor 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Belvoir 12-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Turkish 8-1 8th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Albertrani entry 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Empress of Gold 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 American Angel 8-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3
3: ALL
4: 1-6-7-9
5: 1-4-6

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1a Toque 8-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #7 Sure Success 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Economic Swoon 3-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Dance Floor Maniac 5-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Backslash 5-2 7th
Next Best: #12 Demure Halo 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2b Keep It a Secret 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Annie’s Melody 20-1 9th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Important to see what the SCR’s do here..

Most Likely: #4 Lights Out Lisa 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Catchapenny K 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Myrtle’s Gray 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #14 Let’s Shoot Pool 7-2 5th

SCR ADD: #7 Guyana Princess 15-1

9th: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Day of Destiny 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Litigation Risk 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Lou Brissie 4-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #14 Cure 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Lil O’s Expression 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #15 Jimanator 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Red Leader 8-1 WON ($15.60)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-6
6: 1-7
7: 13
8: 4
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-9-14-15

3x2x1x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 12-13
8: 4-5-7-8-14
9: 3-7-9
10: 1-3-9-14-15

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Reports of the death of the American Handicap Division proved false Saturday as Jim Bond sent Bill Clifton’s Tizway and Rajiv Maragh off to an emphatic victory in the G1 Whitney. The triumph for the Met Mile hero further enhances the reputation (111 Beyer) and stallion prospects of the 6yo son of Tiznow, who will now be pointed toward an ultimate distance challenge in the mile and a quarter Breeders’ Cup Classic. The win could not have been more popular at the Old Spa, as the long-time Upstate New York horseman is among the most liked and appreciated individuals in the game.

The race also rubber-stamped Scooter Dickey’s 5yo Suburban winner Flat Out as 100% bona fide, with the Preston Stables trainee working out a trip under Alex Solis to manage the placement and a 106 Beyer. Giant Oak chugged home a predictable third on the dull main track, out-photographing the aggressively forward Friend or Foe. Billed as wide open and expected to be run fairly with a deep and varied cast of players, when the dust settled, the 2011 Whitney managed to sift down to the two top choices. And despite all attempts to find less obvious answers, even money favorite Turbulent Descent annexed the Test a half hour earlier as the 7f G1 dash saw the field string out all the way down the stretch.

In terms of the action, the big multis were scuttled by Lukas surprize Optimizer in the early quad and Trix in the City in the late version, but a peck of moderate loss-defraying results kept the afternoon from being dreadful. Battingstar and Karakorum Fugitive combined for a $102 in the 4th which boosted things along, and though Howie and the Cat failed as the fave in the 6th, Gary Gullo’s Silent Thunder and Carlos Martin’s Goose No Fruit clicked for the $95 tote. 30-1 Duke of Naples got up under easy .75 winner Higher Court in the 7th for a $63 exacta as well. From that point it was a leaky vessel however, as Trix in the City found herself alone at the front of the De La Rose at 24-1 and cruised home for Rick Violette and Mrs. Symons. I tried to get too creative in the stakes, and paid for it. All told it was a down day to the tune of $300+. Hope you did OK…

Sunday’s card looks to be at the mercy of the weather, and there’s no way to know now how muddy or sloppy things might be. The main is sealed, and the three turf races (1st, 5th, 11th) have been taken off…

WEATHER UNDERGROUND FOR SARATOGA

50-50 proposition for rain and thunderstorms the rest of the day. I’ve selected with a wet track in mind, but it’s the kind of day where you ‘play it as it lies’…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #15 Malibu Artiste 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #13 Indian Tale 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #16 Tempest Storm 7-2 5th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Victory Island 5-2 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #6 Shot Gun Pennie 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Flea Flicker 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Notesfromabroad 4-1 3rd

3rd: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Life’s Measure 5-2 4th
Next Best: #9 D’ Oratory 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Go Unbridled 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Landlash 8-1 5th

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Purple Cat 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Starry 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Silver Meeting 7-2 2nd

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #9 Silver Mast 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Proud Dame 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Earnings Release 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #14 Saratoga Silver 5-1 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-6-7-8
3: 1-5-9
4: 2-3-4-5
5: 5-6-9

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Buffum 5-2 ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 City Trooper 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Washington’s Rules 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Bulaga 3-1 6th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SUPERIOR SARAH 4-1 11th
Best Value: #5 Red Hot Baby 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Gambling Geraldine 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Funky Munky Mama 15-1 WON ($29.80)

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Wicked Mizz 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Por Que’ Te Quiero 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Crespano 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 She’saflashymiss 10-1 7th

9th: 20th Honorable Miss (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Tar Heel Mom 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #4 Champagne d’Oro 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Beat the Blues 7-2 2nd

10th: 27th Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Super fun edition of this. Looks like a scramble, but as we saw Saturday in the filly sprint, sometimes the jocks don’t take the bull bty the horns for advantage early..

Most Likely: #8 Trappe Shot 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sean Avery 20-1 WON ($36.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Hamazing Destiny 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Atta Boy Roy 15-1 8th

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #6 Allen’s Star 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2b Positive Carry 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Perfection Plus 8-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Knockout 7-2 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-6-9
9: 3-4-5
10: 6-8
11: 2-4-6-8

4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Wonderful day ahead if the weather holds… and likely wonderful even if it doesn’t! Difficult, exciting slate that took a lot of thought today, and as usual, just one or two good ideas can make the day profitable for you. And $212k double P6 carryover of course could make it an unforgettable afternoon! No time for Friday recap now as I have to head to the track for ‘Loose on the Lead’ on Capital OTB TV-12 with guests Randy Moss (DRF, etc.), Eric Hamelback (Adena Springs) and Jim Gluckson (Breeders’ Cup).

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Lime Rickey 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Monzante 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Tahoe Lake 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Cheyenne Nation 6-1 WON ($14.20)

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very intriguing baby turf route. Pletcher (Longwood Lake) has scored this meet via debut runners under this scenario with Captain Webb and Crazy Party, and Mott (Winston C) has as well with Star Torina. Prefer those stretching out off bows however including Romans’ Seve, half to the wonderful You, and Toner’s Two Months Rent who is by Dynaformer son Purim. Two Months Rent comesfrom a proven cross being out of Sharpen Up mare Sharp Tradition who produced a pair of turf routing stakes winners with Dynaformer himself. Fun race that feels like it will be important..

Best Value: #9 Seve 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Two Months Rent 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Ur 8-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Coach Royal 5-1 4th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Africanist a half to MGSW My Jen; Minestone a half to precocious SW Deputy Warlock; Red Jack a full to G1 Apple Blossom winner Ermine; A Single Man is out of MGSW Kettleoneup; Takes the Gold is a half to SW Dashing Debby..

Most Likely: #7 Street Fight 7-2 9th
Next Best: #5 Trade 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Takes the Gold 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Currency Swap 8-1 WON ($21.80)

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Yeesh.. Precidtably impossible turf dash..

Most Likely: #10 Battingstar 9-2 WON ($8.70)
Best Value: #3 Karakorum Fugitive 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Miss Dolan’s Rose 12-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Aregulationhottie 6-1 6th

5th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Fascinating MSW for elders that features all kinds of pedigree power: Bayamo (Bernardini) a half to Banshee Breeze; Majestic Man (Maria’s Mon) a half to Miss Isella and Sir Cherokee; Moreno Star (Quiet American) a half to Seattle Smooth); Bomber Boy (Bernardini) a half to Summerly; Katz My Song (Unbridled’s Song) out of Katz Me if You Can; Dream Steeler (Unbridled’s Song) a half To Honor and Serve; Gyre (Bernardini) out of Bird Town

Most Likely: #4 Dream Steeler 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Trolius 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bomber Boy 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Katz My Song 10-1 WON ($16.60)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-5-6-9
3: 5-7-8
4: 3-7-8-10
5: 1-4

6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$215k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Howie and the Cat 4-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Silent Thunder 12-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #1e Flying Zee entry 8-1 2nd/5th
Super Add: #7 Tesoro Silver 10-1 7th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Dr Disco 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Higher Court 7-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Hot Pursuit 10-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Duke of Naples 15-1 2nd

8th: 8th De La Rose, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Another good edition of this distaff lawn mile. Note the American bow of Juddmonte’s Deluxe (SCR’D), a daughter of their great broodmare Hasili who has dropped Cacique, Champs Elysees, Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Heat Haze, et al..

Most Likely: #8 Tapitsfly 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Prize Catch 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Miss Keller 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Becky’s Exchange 15-1 10th

9th: 86th Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

This could be a great betting race if you want to try and deny Turbulent Descent and/or Her Smile. Like the remarkable Whitney that lies ahead, there are no bad decisions when it comes to who you want to include here..

Most Likely: #2 American Lady 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Her Smile 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Coax Liberty 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Pomeroy’s Pistol 8-1 2nd

10th: 84th Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Can’t say more than I have leading up to this. A tremendous assembly of rock-solid handicap horses. I’m going to to mix and match players with various styles given that this should be a fairly run race providing everyone a shot to run their race..

Best Value: #11 Duke of Mischief 8-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Giant Oak 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Morning Line 10-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Apart 6-1 9th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Southbeachsandy 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Bound by Humor 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Green Monster Late SCR
Super Add: #9 Bud White 3-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 2
7: 4-10
8: 3-8
9: 2
10: 1-2-3-4-10-11
11: 6-8-11

1x2x2x1x6x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-8
9: 2-4-6-8
10: 1-2-3-4-10-11
11: 6-8-11

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Sizable number of scratches took some of the starch out of the Thursday Spa slate, a 10 race card that may have been the least intriguing of the meet thus far to begin with. But there were no shortage of surprising and/or well-priced winners spiking the action, and the $100,000 guaranteed P6 resulted in a $70k carryover into Friday. Some may have noticed that after initially posting a $144 P6 suggestion early Thursday morning, I abandoned the idea in the post-scratch edition of the tabs. I’m glad I did as it would have been a futile gesture.

Don’t have too many pithy summary ideas to relate, though it might be worth noting that both Graham Motion (Humadea/8th) and Lisa Lewis (Fast Time/10th) sent out winners as first time starters Thursday in fields where every other combatant had racing experience. In 2yo races, you regularly want to lean toward runners that have had a race, but in groups of older horses seeking diplomas, the new faces are generally preferable to the ‘career maiden’ types. At the windows, the best notion of the day came in the second of the two jump races where Baltic Shore (6-1) lost a photo to Royal Rossi (4-1) with Worried Man (14-1) just behind them. The tri brought back a liberal $290.50, but it was more or less downhill from there. Hope you did OK!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Game Token 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Jackson N Humboldt 7-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #2 Wise Stop 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Dahlgren Chapel 4-1 WON ($7.30)

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Alydarla 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Heather’s Feather 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Shesa Sweet Talker 9-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Bluegrassislegal 6-1 7th

3rd: Madame Jumel, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet N Sour Nina 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Bubble Gum 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Arena Elvira 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #5 Always in My Heart 4-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$70k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Sisterhood 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Dorothy’s Spirit 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Coral Glade 7-2 10th
Super Add: #3 Inny Minnie 9-2 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Vee 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Dracup 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 My Donna Jean 10-1 7th
Super Add: #9 St. Lucy 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-8
3: 1-3-4-5
4: 2-3-5-8-10-11
5: 4-7-8

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Cool Operator 5-2 9th
Best Value: #7 Tom’s Heritage 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Rocky Fortune 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Hook and Lateral 4-1 4th

7th: John’s Call-R, 3+, 13f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very nice assembly of turf routers… In one of those little interesting raceday sidenotes, Kindergarten Kid (Dynaformer) has his 2yo sister Assateague (Stormy Atlantic) debuting in the 6th..

Best Value: #9 Dark Cove 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Simmard 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Center Divider 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Sanagas 12-1 WON ($13.80)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Love these state bred turf routes. Trip will be everything here, and don’t be afraid to use anyone about whom you have an inkling in exotics..

Best Value: #1 Medieval Sword 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Runaway Jim 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Gamblin Fever 6-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Seattle Mission 3-1 2nd

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Little Dale 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sportswriter 10-1 WON ($14.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Skorton 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Synthesizer 10-1 8th

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

4: 2-5-8
5: 7
6: 1-7
7: 1-4-6-7-9-11
8: 1-6
9: 10

3x1x2x6x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-7-10
7: 1-4-6-7-9-11
8: 1-6
9: 1-7-10

4x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Caught a nice wave to open Week 3 of the Spa stand, as the afternoon built to a sizable crescendo around Matz’ Argentine Talisman. Early $112 P4 produced a modest return before things began to really work through the late quad. $13.00 Majestic Hope nosed favored Worth a Buck to start the 7th-10th sequence, and $4.70 Ibboyee then necked Be Bullish in the exciting Morrissey. Tabbing the potential of Argentine Talisman, 10-1 ML and nearly 15-1 going into the gate, ended gleefully as John Velazquez finished strongly with the brother of Haimish Hy tripping big returns from the $31.40 tote.

Sometimes horses look like beach balls to you coming over the plate, and this was just one of those moments. Though I rarely play Doubles, the certainty of Ibboyee or Be Bullish winning ahead of the 9th had me making simple 2×1 plays that brought back $91 for each $2. The P3’s from 7th-9th and 8th-10th were excellent at $281 and $131, and the $1 P4 was good for $832 when standout Montana Knight ($4.90) came through easily in the nightcap for Hushion and West Point’s 2nd bingo on the day (The Defense Rests). All told, the day netted just under $2,000 and again demonstrated the power of finding just one overpowering handicapping notion to act as a lynchpin to a good day, week or even meet. Hope everyone did well!

Thursday $100,000 guarantee P6 today, and the NSA-G2 Smithwick to ‘hurdle’ us into the raceday…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: A.P. Smithwick Mem. (G2), 4+, 16.5f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Slip Away 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Dynaski 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Decoy Daddy 3-1 WON ($9.30)

2nd: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Baltic Shore 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Mabou 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Royal Rossi 5-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #4 Worried Man 20-1 3rd

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Nice looking set of missies including half to Barrier Reef (#5 Ribbon Taffy by Hard Spun), Christmas for Liam (#2 Reservation Blues by Indian Charlie), Due Date & Country Day (#7 Good Deed by Broken Vow). Note that Flashy in Pink, 8-1 and the higher-priced of the 2 Pletcher debuters, was a $95k 2yo buy at Fasig February after being knocked down for $17k as a yearling..

Best Value: #6 Flashy in Pink 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Xunlei 5-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Good Deed 4-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Composition 6-1 7th

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Somewhat nondescript bunch with just a hint here and there of what to expect..

Most Likely: #9 Satin Sheeks 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 False Alibi 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Quiet Ending 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Barrel of Joy 30-1 7th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

And here I thought the 4th race was tough to decipher! This event screams chaos..

Best Value: #10 Harbor Mist 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 For Her Eyes Only 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Moon 8-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Tale of Utopia 20-1 10th

6th: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Decennial 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #6 Margaret Smile 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 To the Point 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Classical Fashion 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

This is a complete crapshoot..

3: 6-7-8
4: 5-6-7-9
5: 1-4-6-7-10-11
6: 3-6

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

7th: Birdstone, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #4 Afleet Again who is opting for the John’s Call Friday. Suppose it would be appropriate for Nick Zito to win this, no? Equestrio the better of his 2 chances. Pletcher has a potent pair as well, with favored Rule certainly looking like lone speed and Modern Cowboy steadily evolving into a nice horse. Happy to see ‘ol favorite Sangaree, half brother of Congaree, at the Spa. Al Stall is lurking in here with ALW stalwart Glenwood Canyon. Fun little race..

Most Likely: #7 Rule 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Equestrio 7-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Sangaree 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gautier 8-1 3rd

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Style Squad 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Cindy’s Joy 12-1 Eased
Exotics Use: #6 Abaco 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Wet One 5-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Very tough group to separate this hungry looking set..

Best Value: #7 Toccet’s Image 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Eleven Final Fours 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Get a Grip 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Annawon 6-1 WON ($18.60)

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Getinitalltogether 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Cockeyed Rooster 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Whistlin’ Dixie 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #12 European Roulette 15-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 1-5
9: 1-3-7-8-9
10: 1-3-4-5-12

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75