Threat of heavy weather this afternoon (Saratoga Weather Underground forecast) for carryover sequence of $76.5k precipitated Saturday by $134.00 Frank Martin nightcap shocker Ess Shape. The quirky maiden-laden slate was a bit of a roller coaster ride all afternoon actually, with plenty of opportunities to score with even the most random ideas.

Was able to cover the quad expense in the chalky early P4 ($86 back on $72 play), but got 10-1 in the triple utilizing the inverted key approach. As has been broached recently, the play takes logical players — here Imaging (2-1), Corporate Jungle (5-2), Unbridled Ocean (8-1) — in the top slots over prices — Simbamangu (10-1), Santo Gato (20-1), Clear Note (28-1). The 3x2x3 wager was $18, and when Corporate Jungle, Imagining & Santo Gato came under the wire, the $1 punt returned $176. I didn’t get a bet in, but a similar approach in the 8th had the potential to bring in $574 with Karakorum Legend (9-2), Unaccountable (7-2) & Bergerac (21-1)! As I’ve talked and written about, I’m finding this wager intriguing, and have now hit 4-5 for good money. The Spa turf races seem like the perfect place to play with this concept.

Overall it was a good day with another couple of modest hits, and I hope everyone did well and enjoyed Saratoga, Arlington, Del Mar or whatever else you were watching! Del Mar has a $140k+ carryover themselves today, and the weather there is certainly going to be less volatile than here!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Brilliant Future 2-1
Best Value: #3 Dreamingly 9-2
Exotics Use: #7 Ostensibly 6-1
Super Add: #8 Storm Palm 6-1

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Bargain Blitz 8-1
Next Best: #5 Wait Til Dawn 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Isra 3-1
Super Add: #3 Remarkable Moon 10-1

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Lender’s Way 3-1
Best Value: #5 Proud and Charming 5-1
Next Best: #2 Wildcat’s Smile 5-2
Exotics Use: #1e Broman entry 7-2

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Grand Strategy 3-1
Next Best: #5 Trulee Scrappin’ 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Won Fast Bullet 5-2
Super Add: #1 Whateverittakes 10-1

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$76k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Carson Bandit 6-1
Next Best: #6 Strolldownbroadway 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Diceman 4-1
Super Add: #9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-8
3: 2-5-8
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 3-6-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Awesome Arceno 5-1
Next Best: #5 Pistols at Dawn 8-5
Exotics Use: #4 Skinny Peter 6-1

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Delightful Magic 5-2
Next Best: #1 Stopshoppingmaria 2-1
Exotics Use: #7 Book Review 6-1
Super Add: #8 Terralba 12-1

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 9-2
Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Tiger 4-1
Super Add: #1 Nurse Dolce 8-1

9th: 95th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 6-5
Next Best: #4 Millionreasonswhy 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 New Wave 10-1

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 City Scamper 10-1
Best Value: #9 Drinksonthehouse 3-1
Next Best: #10 Seattle Dynasty 8-1
Super Add: #2 Bella Silver 12-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-6
6: 4-5-6
7: 1-4-7-8
8: 4
9: 4-5
10: 3-9

2x3x4x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-7-8
8: 3-4-7
9: 1-4-5
10: 2-3-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Get the feeling I hit a bit of what baseball types call a ‘dead arm’ Wednesday-Friday, enduring some mediocre-at-best handicapping and ho-hum wagering. The P6 carryover try for Friday was inept as I ended up putting in a $240 ticket that emphasized in the wrong places and could only manage 3 winners. That said, I’m not sure I would have gotten to nightcap victor Ginger J without using a half dozen runners at least.

The week has been odd in that I have been able to identify plenty of winners daily, but haven’t seen enough prices tied together to boost the bankroll. As a result, after negligible wins/losses Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, I trimmed more than $500 off the wad Friday. Am up about $1,500 for the stand as we hit the halfway point Saturday, and expect to yet find the big P4’s that usually sustain the Spa season for me. Sword Dancer card and Arlington Million slate offer plenty of opportunities today, and I hope everyone has been doing OK and are ready for yet another great weekend of racing and action!

Steve Crist, Jay Privman and Keeneland Library’s G. D. Hieronymus join Seth Merrow and I this morning on “Loose on the Lead”, and you can still catch Friday’s ATR Weekend Preview with Marcus Hersch, Nick Tammaro, Ed DeRosa, Rick Hammerle and Joe McMahon on SiriusXM or at www.stevebyk.com.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

To utilize one of Andy Serling’s maxims, “the time to have Pico Dinero was last time”, and we all did on opening day at 12-1. Turf course now playing honestly, and you need to find all the best of the pace options. Top pair (BEL, 7/14) and bottom pair (DEL, 7/19) below exit respective races, and I’ll try to hook them all up in this fun opener..

Most Likely: #1 Monastir 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Milllenium Jet 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Dugan 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Grande Gayego 20-1 10th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Little Dale SCR’D was a heart-breaking disappointment 8 days ago when needed for a juicy P4 hit. The Prize Fighter has been shopping for a spot since the meet started, and as it happens, late owner Carl Lizza is being feted this afternoon..

Most Likely: #3 The Prize Fighter 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #5 Tug of War 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Smokem’s Charm 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Think I’m Hooked 8-1 4th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Gallant Fields 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Quality Council 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #1e Darley entry 2-1 2nd/5th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3)

Tough group upon which to get a handle..

Best Value: #6 Scotchirish 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Dallaglio 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ry Bread 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Miami Ghost 3-1 8th

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting maiden affair with a pedigreed player from Pletcher in Unbridled Ocean, a colt out of the outstanding Ocean Drive who Todd happened to train for M/M Baskin..

Most Likely: #6 Imagining 3-1: Solid debut; Extra 200 yards should help.. 2nd
Best Value: #8 Simbamangu 8-1: ‘Now horse’ 3 weeks ago, a better tab today.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Unbridled Ocean 4-1: $875k new; Dam a Ballston Spa heroine.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Corporate Jungle 9-2: Brown firing on all cylinders after blah start.. WON ($7.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-8
3: 2-3
4: 1-4-6-7-8-9
5: 3-4-6-8

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $75

$1 Pick 4 (1/3-2/5-1-4) Paid: $86.85

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Scant tangibles available in this baby heat. Note Pletcher (#4 How Do I Win) just 1 for last 14 adding hood to 2yo’s in MSW’s (2010-11)..

Best Value: #7 Burned Bridges 8-1: KMc debuts half to Jump Start.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Clip the Coupons 4-1: Half to MSP Calder bull Peace at Dawn.. WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Love to Run 8-1: $190k Pulpit son working well.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 How Do I Win 3-1: See above.. 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Super tricky group given the assignment and abundance of firsters. Happy this isn’t in the late P4..

Best Value: #10 Dullahan 6-1: Turf stretch may work for Mine That Bird brother.. 2nd
Next Best: #8 Patrice Merion 3-1: Pletcher sends Zayat miss by EngChan out v. boys.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Atigun 15-1: McPeek hits boards turf routing with first time starters.. 9th
Super Add: #1 Tiz Sardonic Joe 10-1: Half to Joes Blazing Aaron, so lawn route should suit.. WON ($20.00)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive with a number of horses that really have a nose for the wire..

Best Value: #9 Bergerac 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Unaccountable 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Xodo 8-1 5th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Difficult P4 sequence gets more challenging with this turf dash scrambler..

Most Likely: #3 Power Blast 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Decision Point 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Jupiter Trio 5-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Out of Your Mind 30-1 9th

10th: 37th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Considering the Arlington Million is being run an hour later, this edition came up very nice..

Most Likely: #8 Winchester 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #1 Drosselmeyer 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Teaks North 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Boisterous 4-1 5th

11th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Rush to Riches 5-1 11th
Best Value: #4 El Cuandro 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Calgary Enforcer 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Recipe 4-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6-9
9: 3-6-10
10: 1-5-7-8
11: 4-7-12

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

FYI, Philly shipper #8 Quiet All American (5-1) has been announced as a gelding..

Most Likely: #6 Power King 3-1
Best Value: #3 River City Reel 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Successful Score 5-2
Super Add: #2 Cave’s Valley 7-2

2nd: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tough hard knockers with droppers, returnees, stretchouts, et al..

Most Likely: #7 Almoradi 7-2: The dropper..
Best Value: #1 (POE) The Vin Man 6-1: The returnee..
Exotics Use: #5 Glacier Bay 2-1: The horse to beat..
Super Add: #4 Ever a Friend 5-1: The stretch-out..

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Top three all out of stake-winning dams..

Most Likely: #1 Hard Mystery 2-1
Next Best: #4 Miss Caterina 8-5
Exotics Use: #5 Smokin’ Alice 3-1

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$80k P6 C/O starts here..

Top tab Inner Truth a sneaky wire threat under Kent who is making the most of his few mounts here..

Best Value: #1 Inner Truth 12-1
Next Best: #3 Senora Dubai 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Hookshot 5-2
Super Add: #5 Stray Bullet 4-1

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Starsilhouette 4-1
Next Best: #9 Settling Seas 3-1
Best Value: #7 Ba Ba’s Bunch 8-1
Super Add: #4 Miss Stilleto 5-2

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7
3: 1-4-5
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 1-4-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th:MSW, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Gaudy fig for Soultown in debut tough to get past here. Top one from that race — Brueggemann LA-bred Southern Dude (101 Beyer) — yet to run back, though one winner has exited the event. Likely legit in Margo’s hands..

Most Likely: #3 Soultown 2-1
Next Best: #1 Show Me the Way 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Rothko 4-1
Super Add: #4 Perfect Slam 8-1

7th: 27th Hall of Fame (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As the Sword Dancer came up a solid alternative for those not of Arlington Million quality, this standard is a solid assembly of lesser light soph talent for those not up to the Secretariat. Outside quartet have lots of pace interest making it likely that the inside trio get to them in the late stages. (And note that the turf courses are finally playing completely fair after being speed-friendly the first third of the stand)..

Best Value: #2 Rustler Hustler 8-1
Next Best: #3 Crimson China 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Humble and Hungry 5-1
Super Add: #7 Street Game 8-5

8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Diane Balsalmo goes to the well a 3rd time (!) here with the indefatiguable System Restore. Can Gary Gullo snap a losing streak for 90+ starts with grass runners? VERY difficult turf dash..

Best Value: #8 Saints Alive 10-1
Next Best: #10 Mitigation 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Coronation Day 7-2
Super Add: #5 Count Catamount 8-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Debuting Roca Del Norte, by good turf sire Dehere, (remember Argentine Talisman?)..

Most Likely: #9 English Ivy 5-2
Best Value: #7 Lemme 8-1
Next Best: #5 Hoopskirt 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Roca Del Norte 12-1
Super Add: 10 Another Please 5-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1
5: 1-4-7-9
6: 3
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 8
9: 5-7-9

1x4x1x4x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 2-3-5-6-7
8: 4-8-10
9: 1-3-5-7-9

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Mrs. Phipps, F&M-4+, 16.5f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Opera Heroine 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #3 Lonesome Nun 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Upper Gulch 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Well Fashioned 4-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cinder Cone 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Summer Share 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Most Happy Fella 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Awesome Review 7-2 3rd

3rd: CLM, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Sharp Tongue Lady 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Henny’s Hurricane 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Indian Tale 5-2 WON ($7.20)

4th: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Chess match of a race. All seem capable and that’s probably a good approach in the P4..

Most Likely: #2 Hillswick 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Mannington 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Law Enforcement 6-1 2nd

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Langsyne 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Bellamy Roadster 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lady Gold 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Bourbonstreetgirl 8-1 WON ($21.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-5
3: 1
4: ALL
5: 3-4-6-7

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Golden Tornado 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Won O Won 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Casanova Giant 3-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Forty Tears 12-1 4th

7th: Lucy Scrivner, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Doing Great 5-2 DNF
Next Best: #6 Cascadilla Falls 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Best Value: #8 Tale Untold 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Sunlight Sonata 7-2 3rd

8th: NY Stallion Stakes, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Hessonite 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 Lady On the Run 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Freud’s Honor 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Darren’s Dilemma 7-2 7th

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Splendiferous 5-1 WON ($12.20)
Best Value: #2 Knock Rock 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Chanttoomuch 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Speightscity 4-1 4th

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Midnite Silver 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Cookram Rock 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Leadwithyourchin 7-2 —
Super Add: #2 Turfiste 20-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-6-8
8: 5-6-7
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 6-7-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$232k Double Carryover available to kick off Week 4 of the stand as quirky Monday winners scuttled all sextet punts and many smaller sequence multis as well…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brown slips Silver Timber into softest spot he’s seen in ages. Can understand those playing against, but even at 8, he should still be able to handle these if close to best..

Most Likely: #5 Silver Timber 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Strong Impact 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Hot Money 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Pegasus Tommy D. 6-1 6th

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Curious and weak-looking group..

Best Value: #3 Mayville 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 I’d Lie 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Trashi Diva 4-1 4th

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 D’ Bulldog 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tackle 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 War Ballad 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Black Diablo 6-1 3rd

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Vexor 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #7 Raconteur 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seeker 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Elusive Story 4-1 2nd

5th: Waya, F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$232k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Dyani 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emerald Beach 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #5 Gold d’Oro 8-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-6-7-8
3: 5-6-7-8
4: 2-5-7
5: 2-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Need an Angel 4-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Fortheloveof Anna 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cosmic King 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Storm Galileo 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 The Man Uptown 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Ahgogo 8-1 4th

8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dawly 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #6 Tap Attack 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Goodtimehadbyall 7-2 3rd

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (DD, Super)

Balanced and high quality event..

Most Likely: #5 Colonialism 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #7 Ducduc 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Distant Sky 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 En Fuego 9-2 2nd

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Turn Up the Music 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Cincinnati Kid 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 What’s the Record 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Hershel 4-1 9th

@$150 P6 Play:

5: 2
6: 3-9
7: 5-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-6

1x2x2x5x1x4 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

Let’s swing for fences by trying to get a single of Colonialism home..

7: 1-2-3-5-6-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-6

6x5x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$.50 P4 (3-3-5-4) Paid $93.25