The first clue that Thursday was going to be screwy was David Jacobson winning the NSA-G1 NY Turf Writer’s Cup with $30k claimant Mabou. Swiped from sure-to-be-besides-himself Ken Ramsey, Mabou demolished the top level group in the late stages, winning off by 5 widening lengths at 16-1. From there, things got silly with the day’s final three races taken off the turf after the late P4 had begun, and three races into the carried over P6. That resulted in “ALL-ALL-ALL” to end both wagers, and tripped the switch on the bizarre ‘75% of pool auto carryover’ rule that came under fire at Belmont a couple of months ago.

While someone on the state’s wagering board likely thought they were doing the fair thing giving everyone a chance on another day with the curious concept, the rule more or less robs those that played into the second day of the carry. Shouldn’t they simply take the initial carryover pot and move it too the next day while returning the other investment back as refunds? We’ll see where this goes from here, seeing as how this oddity was supposed to be addressed after it first came light downstate…

Bernard Baruch is the feature and likely the only grass race for Friday ahead of the sublime Travers card Saturday. Carryover is a total $192k… Heavy weather is expected Sunday with a raceday postponement a rumored possibility, and Tina and I are supposed be in NYC for a family function!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Good race if it stays on lawn. For me, Spring Party and not favorite Deanallean’skitten, is the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #1 Spring Party 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #5 Kittylicious 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Centrina 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Deanallen’skitten 3-1 4th

2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hot Danger 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Page by Page 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #1 First Penny 15-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Little Larky 3-1 5th

3rd: S/HCP, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Frazil 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Sea Gaze 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Caixa Electronica 8-5 WON ($4.60)

4th: Easy N Dirty-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ibboyee 9-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Smokin Hero 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1e Repole entry 8-5 WON ($3.80)/2nd

5th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ballyclough 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #5 Santo Gato 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Soultown 4-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Sea Song’s Hammer 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-7
3: 2-3-5-6
4: 1-3-4
5: 2-5-6

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/6/1,2,6/2) Paid $21.30

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Hurling 15-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #6 Adam Rides Again 3-1 2nd

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Hear Me Roar 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Too Clever by Half 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Silver Meeting 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Enrichment 7-2 9th

8th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Ignore ill-advised turf try by Afleet Again, and he’s very likeable at 8-1..

Best Value: #5 Afleet Again 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 To Honor and Serve 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Gautier 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Slevin 5-1 2nd

9th: 53rd Bernard Baruch (G2_, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive edition of this old turf standard that has seen the likes of Tompion (1960), Fort Marcy (1967), Hawaii (1969), Steinlen (1989), Lure (1994), Hap (2000-01) and the great Fourstars Allstar (1992, 1995) in its’ winner’s circle..

Most Likely: #8 Hymm Book 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Boots Ahead 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Moryba 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Turallure 10-1 WON ($20.00)

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #9 Sotique 9-2 —
Next Best: #6 Vee 3-1 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #1 Frontaine 8-1 —
Super Add: #10 Saucy Jade 7-2 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 2
7: 2-4-5
8: 5
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 6-9

2x1x3x1x6x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (2/2/2/2/2/6) Paid $78.00 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5
8: 2-5
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 1-6-9-10

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/2/6) Paid $152.50

Bit of an unusual day to start Travers Week as a handful of offbeat results produced bonus mutuels individually and in the multis. $51 Missysmoonlitmgic in the 2nd triggered the $7k early P4, while $54 Bigger is Bettor (Albany staggerfest upsetter) and $43 nightcap stunner Staff Sargeant set off a $58k carryover and eye-popping $31,500 late quad. I caught a couple of decent hits here and there utilizing 5-1 Majestic Hope (1st), 7-1 Eleven of Hearts (6th) and 22-1 Griffin Rock (10th), but it wasn’t that great of a day by any accounting. Hope you did OK! Thursday card starts with G1 hopper event ahead of some interesting sets. Note the $35k Hi-5 carryover later in Del Mar’s nightcap…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 70th NY Turf Writers Cup (NSA-G1), 4+, 19f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Sheppard entry 9-5
Next Best: #1e Sheppard entry 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Decoy Daddy 3-1

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Quirky group of 6 as I’m willing to believe that one or both of the firsters are OK given clever Iadisernia and sharp Trombetta (Note MCLM debut stat). ‘All’ in the P4 may be prudent if you can afford it..

Most Likely: #1 Thunder Lilly 5-2
Next Best: #2 Zero Yield 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Skiddles n’ Bob 5-1

3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Holiday Broad 5-1
Next Best: #7 Barbados Beauty 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Stay Composed 7-2
Super Add: #1 Alydarla 7-2

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Odd assembly given race condition in that none of the 7 signed on have started yet at the meet. 8-1 Bakhoor is fast enough as dirt runner and dam Gossamer, trained by Tommy Skiffington, broke her maiden and cleared N1X on the MTH turf. She has produced Allover (Spinning World), a Baffert trainee that won sprinting at first asking in 2003 ahead of an ALW win on the DMR lawn that earned a 95 Beyer, and Bachelor Duke (Miswaki) who won the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas over notable Azamour. KMc excels off layoffs, and you should get a square number..

$58k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #5 Bakhoor 8-1
Next Best: #3 Missinglisalewis 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Targhee Pass 7-2
Super Add: #2 Fire With Fire 5-2

5th: CLM, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Watching Most Happy Fella win Wednesday certainly reflects well on Awesome Review and Cinder Cone. Hurricane Heat gets the bug break and should be in the mix on the stretchout back to two turns, any area where Gary has some of his most positive trainer stats. Metrology goes to Rudy Rod on what looks like a Michael Dubb private purchase..

Most Likely: #1 Awesome Review 5-2
Next Best: #6 Cinder Cone 2-1
Exotics Use: #4 Metrology 7-2
Best Value: #2 Hurricane Heat 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: ALL
3: 2-4-7
4: 2-3-4-5
5: 1-6

6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Many P6 tix could die here. VERY difficult mix-and-match group of MDN sellers..

Best Value: #3 Exchanging Memories 12-1
Next Best: #7 Lindell A. C. 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Allen’s Star 5-1
Super Add: #5 Go to the Net 10-1

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mergo Verge 5-2
Best Value: #3 August Gala 12-1
Exotics Use: #8 Pleasant Heiress 3-1
Super Add: #9 Miss Alondra 8-1

8th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Argentine Talisman, one of the keys to success for many of us this meet, returns in same spot. Note that Johnny V. opts for Chad Brown’s 5-2 favorite this time around, but The Man Uptown is a major underlay rising in price and needing to improve just to contend. I’m opting for still improving Kid Curry at an attractive number, expecting a bit of a pace duel between Dual Citizen and J Isle. On that topic, it’s worth noting that should either of that pair get away easy on the front end, they could be tough to reel in. Very good race in the manner $50k claimer events should be!

NOTE: J Isle has SCR’d, leaving Dual Citizen alone on the lead..

Best Value: #2 Kid Curry 6-1
Next Best: #6 Argentine Talisman 7-2
Exotics Use: #4 Dual Citizen 6-1
Super Add: #1 Ahgogo 10-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Yowza.. An utter jumble of oddballs..

Most Likely: #10 Structural Change 4-1
Next Best: #1 Strictly Society 7-2
Best Value: #6 Tennis Racket 10-1
Super Add: #2 Zaahy 5-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 5
5: 1-2-4-6
6: 3-7
7: 5
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-6-10

1x4x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-7
7: 3-5
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-2-3-4-6-10

3x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Majestic Hope 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #5 Actlikeyoumeanit 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Worth a Buck 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Magnet Cove 10-1 7th

2nd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Crypto Kitten 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Notell 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Strikealinethruit 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Tulane Up 8-1 4th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Big SCR of heavy fave #2 All of the Above; No Show or Tri..

Next Best: #4 Isn’t He Perfect 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1e Zito entry 5-1 3rd/4th
Exotics Use: #3 Most Happy Fella 4-1 WON ($7.20)

4th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Victorious Leader 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 One Note Samba 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Just Playin Around 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Dubai Rainbow 5-1 8th

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bunker’s Ledge 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 My Wahoo 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Malibu Wave 5-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5-8-9
3: 1-3-4
4: 2-5-7-8-9
5: 2-8

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 She Drives Me Wild 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #4 Eleven of Hearts 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sasta Go Lucky 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Isabella Bella 15-1 7th

7th: Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Preachintothedevil 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Socialsaul 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Alstom 8-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Sailmate 7-2 4th

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dynazapper 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 The Underling 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Ailalea 5-2 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Grace and Courage 3-1 WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #7 Molly Molly Molly 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Lakeside Chapel 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Dracup 6-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Last Out of Panama 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Griffin Rock 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Alvito 12-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Forty Tears 6-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 6-7
10: 5-8-10-11

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st ON TURF; 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 10th OFF TURF

1st: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Asphalt 7-5
Best Value: #1 Wilkinson 12-1

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Neat Lightening 7-2
Best Value: #2 More Is Better 5-1
Next Best: #1 Sunnybrook 5-1
Super Add: #10 Karakorum Fugitive 5-1

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Quay Lime Guy 3-1
Next Best: #12 Captain My Captain 7-2
Best Value: #9 D’oro Dancer 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Perfect Joiski 9-2

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Despite the Odds 5-2
Next Best: #5 China 3-1
Best Value: #4 Strapping Groom 8-1

5th: Union Ave-NY, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lovely Lil 9-5
Best Value: #6 Gold for the Queen 9-2
Next Best: #4 Sentimental Lass 5-2
Super Add: #2 Nicole’s Miss El 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-10-11
3: 9-11-12
4: 1-5
5: 3-4-6

4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Sensational Slam 2-1
Next Best: #14 One Cool Dude 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Fight for V L T’s 5-1
Super Add: #7 Irish Emperor 12-1

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Vivere 4-1
Next Best: #1 World Harmony 9-5
Exotics Use: #6 Avolo 6-1
Super Add: #4 American Angel 3-1

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Stanford Dolly 5-2
Next Best: #7 Aregulationhottie 4-1
Best Value: #4 My Snookie’s Pal 8-1
Super Add: #8 My Dolan’s Rose 6-1

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Al Muhtasib 7-5
Best Value: #4 Westshore 10-1
Next Best: #6 Thomas Got Even 3-1
Super Add: #3 Eltish Star 8-1

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Marcellus 7-2
Next Best: #5 Orsonian 3-1
Best Value: #14 Ambassador Bridge 8-1
Super Add: #9 Whistlin’ Dixie 7-2

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-6
8: 4-6-7
9: 4-7
10: 5-12

3x3x2x2 = $36 ($18 for .50.. Play a few times)

Good luck!
Steve

After a humdrum week of capping and play mid-meet, enjoying a superb run of success since Wednesday including excellent returns on Saturday’s Alabama Day card. After being surprised by Ferraro’s Finger Lakes invader in the 2nd, I had a good feel for the rest of the afternoon. Nabbed the solid late P4 ($599) and rolled lucrative P3’s that were particularly boosted by $14 B Shanny (Top tab/Best Value), $14.40 Tapaway (Top tab/Best Value) and $20.40 Fantastic Song (4th choice/Super Add).

The carryover P6 paid an outrageous $366k to 2 winners, and I went 4 of 6 failing to reach Fantastic Song and Midnight Billy with the $192 ducat. But it hardly took away from a delightful big day that was bolstered by the beautiful weather and a great crowd that clearly reveled in the Spa atmosphere. The feature saw Bill Mott add another important race to his Hall of Fame career achievements as Royal Delta easily annexed the 131st Alabama, and Sunday patrons have a chance to see another special filly with many excited about the next exploit of Winter Memories. Hope you did great Saturday and that we again can avoid the thunderstorm gremlins Sunday!

SARATOGA

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

What a terrific way to start this quirky card. Absolutely wide open with no one easily eliminated from consideration..

Best Value: #10 Bwana Brave 5-1
Next Best: #8 Concert Stage 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Don’t Fooli Houli 10-1
Super Add: #5 Time Trial 8-1

OFF THE TURF: 12-3-13-2

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Hard to know at this time if it is ‘dry fast’ or wet strip. The 1-2-3-5-6 are all bred well for off going, and Spare Change obviously has already proven OK over it..

Most Likely: #2 Spare Change 2-1
Best Value: #4 Grace Like Rain 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Street Savy 5-2

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

As good a meet as Rudy Rod is habving, W. W. Lady’s Man has almost always reacted negatively to big efforts. Does like it wet, but am leaning against..

Most Likely: #7 Hero Figure 5-2
Best Value: #3 Turnpike Token 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 System Restore 4-1
Super Add: #6 Lil O’s Expression 6-1

4th: 28th Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Lezcano cannot expect to have the nearly perfect daughter of Memories of Silver extricate him from jackpots every time out. Will have to keep reprise her sharp form against some better-than-they-look foes..

Most Likely: #4 Winter Memories 4-5
Best Value: #3 Wyomia 10-1
Exotics Use: #6 Kathmanblu 8-1
Super Add: #2 Bellamy Star 8-1

5th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Springcourt 6-1
Next Best: #9 Cease 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Rivendell 12-1
Super Add: #3 Deposit Slip 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Idea here is to be in position to score should Winter Memories get beat..

2: 1-2-4-5
3: 3-5-7
4: 2-4-5-6-7-8
5: 1-9

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Rarely suggest focusing play on Rusty Arnold, but #7 Run a Risk (10-1) is the right place to try given experience factor versus many firsters and pedigree power on move to intended surface (assuming it stays on the turf). Note that Lisa Lewis sends the baby full sister of Ginger J here. That one broke her maiden as a FTS 3yo against $25k types just 9 days ago at 7-1. Lewis is solid with debuters in general — though not necessarily with firsters turf sprinting — but it seems prudent to be aware in this particular situation..

Best Value: #7 Run a Risk 10-1
Next Best: #2 Tanglewood Tale 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Cat 5-2
Super Add: #9 Cattaraugus 6-1

OFF THE TURF: TBD

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Flavor Girl 6-1
Next Best: #4 Beautiful But Blue 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Read the Research 5-1
Super Add: #3 Ave’s Halo 5-2

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

This is a curious assembly of ne’er-do-wells. Weaver-Repole send ‘claim-and-drop’ fave Silver Screamer looking for a win, but there are a few interesting candidates for exotics or as upsetters. See that Carroll brings back Cindy’s Joy in an abandonment move after embarrassing non-effort 2 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #3 Silver Screamer 5-2
Best Value: #4 Vertical Lift 8-1
Exotics Use: #5 Vintage Heirloom 5-1
Super Add: #1 Cindy’s Joy 12-1

OFF THE TURF: TBD

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Just Hold On 6-1
Next Best: #2e Pletcher entry 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Will’s Wildcat 5-1

10th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Yeesh.. This is some way to end the sequences. All guesswork..

Best Value: #2 Court of Dreams: J/T combo clicked with Elusive Bluff (BEL; 9/5/08) at 34-1..
Next Best: #6 Shesabronxbomber 9-2: Like Rivelli’s handling with T/D stretching out..
Exotics Use: #5 Wholelottashakin 15-1: Half to hard-hitter Dewars Rocks; Should turf OK..
Super Add: #8 Goldie’s Reward 8-1: Weaver sharp stretching them out; Sibs liked lawn..

OFF THE TURF: TBD

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-7-8
8: 3-4
9: 2-4-6
10: 2-4-5-6-8-11

4x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve