Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Bergerac comes through; Closing weekend upon us

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

Fun and successful Thursday thanks to Jimmy Baker’s $30.40 Bergerac in the 7th, but another 5 of 6 conso in Guaranteed P6 was a little maddening. For perhaps the 3rd or 4th time recently, I was stung by downgrading the chances of an out-posted horse on the grass. Although I wouldn’t have used him in the P6 anyway, #11 Get a Grip, (off as the 2nd choice), was a horse worthy of a lot more respect despite the extreme starting slot. Edgar Prado, getting improved mounts and riding better as the meet has gone on, worked out a good trip on the Team Valor trainee and won in exciting fashion.

An hour earlier, Prado provided ATR listeners and myself with a big present as Bergerac attended the pace and held onrushing foes safe late at a fat 14-1. Trainer Jim Baker has spent a delightful half hour on the show Thursday, and the Rahy 4yo’s prospects couldn’t have been stressed to players any more enthusiastically. Bergerac helped clear some P6 players out, and having another 4 winners on the $144 play got back $316. Getting all was worth $14k. Bergerac also was the key to $200 in P3’s between the 6th-9th.

The first half of the card produced a couple of huge prices, as $54 Arch Support and $44 Monteagle helped trip a $5,400 (.50) P4 payoff. All in all, it was a good day, and I hope everyone did well. Twilight racing starts at 2:30p Friday as we begin the 4 day season-ending Labor Day weekend!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Temecula Creek 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Sunrise Smarty 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Starforaday 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Saint Daimon 12-1 5th

2nd: Gold N Roses-NY, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult group to separate. Although ‘fastest’ on figs, Bay Park Boy excelled in sloppy conditions being bred ideally (Johannesburg) and built suitably being petite and possessing ‘deer feet’. The rest, including maiden Jaw Crusher, are all equal more or less based on their previous start..

Best Value: #2 Dehere of the Cat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Jaw Crusher 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 The Prize Fighter 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Zow 2-1 WON ($4.10)

3rd: Sightseek, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Wait a minute… Wasn’t this named the Distorted Humor on Sunday? Despite having a cast of sprinters, only Higher Court looks to need the lead. Chipshot can press from underneath him if Castellano chooses, and Desormeaux gets a blinkered Free Entry from outside Higher Court, so maybe the pace gets pressed? Good cat and mouse type of race that may play right into the hands of favored Wine Police..

Most Likely: #1 Wine Police 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Chipshot 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Philippe 8-1 4th

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

If you’re playing tris/supers, include #11 Desert Bliss (12-1) who has a license to be OK in this setting..

Most Likely: #9 Landlubber 7-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #8 Ladywell Court 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Proud and Charming 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Stock Fund 9-2 3rd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 8-9 with 8-9-10 with 2-8-9-10-11 with ALL (2x2x3x8 = 96 x .10 = $9.60)

5th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 A Single Man 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Raconteur 5-2 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4-6
3: 1-2
4: 8-9-10
5: 3-5-7

4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 River Fancy 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #4 Ms Stilleto 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Higher Incentive 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Australis Princess 5-2 5th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 2 in top 2 slots with 3-4-5-6-9 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 60 + 60 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

$.10 Superfecta (2-4-9-3) Paid $84.45

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Barrel of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 All Class 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Joey’s Chance 15-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Isn’tlovejustgrand 12-1 WON ($13.40)

8th: 3rd Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very nice group that appears to have several developing missies..

Best Value: #7 Elusive Pearl 10-1 WON ($19.80)
Next Best: #3 Starformer 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Divalarious 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Indian Pond 6-1 8th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Deep and slightly mysterious set..

Best Value: #7 Namaskara 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 An Absolute Ten 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Now Smile 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Wet One 8-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Golden Causeway 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Midnite Silver 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Red Leader 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Short Shrift 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #7 Pavoratti’s Soul 30-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-7
8: 3-4-7
9: 5-6-7-11
10: 4-6-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Solid hits offset misses on big SAR, DMR multis

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

Fun day of racing started at 1p with Hammock winning the New York opener, and didn’t end until after 8:30p when Mudville Nine topped the Del Mar nightcap. The P6’s at both venues proved as challenging as anticipated, with 5 Saratoga winners receiving $57k for their efforts while only 2 California players tamed their sextet to the tune of $620k! I could only place 3 winners on either ticket, and though the big prizes proved elusive, a few nice hits brightened the afternoon on the two coasts. In the second leg at Del Mar, landing on U. C. Merced Two as a P6 single proved a godsend, as Jimmy Kasparoff’s charge emerged late to score for a $25.40 win tote. The P3 with favorites in the next pair was good for nearly $150, and more than covered all of the late day action.

Earlier at the Spa, I was rolling through the card pretty neatly until the latest stages where I missed the P4 anchor leg. A few P3’s kept the ledger balanced with $8.40 Alaura Michele and $7.50 Risky Rachel coming in particularly handy. Hope everyone did well and enjoyed the start of the closing weeks on the two coasts! Another 11 at the Old Spa Thursday, with the last $100k P6 guarantee and jump event of the meet on tap.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-Nat’l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dugan 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2e (POE) Well Fashioned 5-1 8th/5th
Next Best: #3e Fisher entry 3-1 4th/7th
Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Art 5-1 WON ($9.90)

2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Self Control 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Piscesbymoonlight 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Trolius 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Volition 10-1 7th

3rd: Ann Claire-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Victory Island 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #1e Serpe/Flying Zee entry 4-1 WON/4th ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Why Take a Chance 8-1 3rd

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Humadea 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Star Torina 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Up in Lights 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Loure 6-1 7th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 A Rod 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Jack’s Work 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Skinny Peter 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Hot Pursuit 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
3: 3
4: 4-5
5: 2-3-6-8-12

7x1x2x5 = $70 ($35 for .50 and can be played twice.. or more)

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Purses Galore 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Street Surprise 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Heather’s Feather 3-1 WON ($9.30)
Super Add: #2 Star Vesta 5-1 3rd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Don’t think this is his spot per se, but it is nice to see J. B.’s Thunder make it back to the races. This is a heck of a good group and a great betting opportunity. Ignore the ML numbers and bet with gusto!

Best Value: #5 Bergerac 12-1 WON ($30.40)
Next Best: #7 Prado Dash 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Lethal Combination 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Xodo 15-1 8th

8th: Island Whirl, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Note that Rule by Night is cross-entered in Saturday’s Forego (G1) and will run there..

Most Likely: #6 Dark Thunder 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 Bank Merger 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Congressional Page 8-1 4th

9th: With Anticipation (G2), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Captain Webb 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Two Months Rent 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 State of Play 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #4 Dullahan 7-2 3rd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Toccet’s Image 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Ocean Seven 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Last Empire 6-1 5th
Super Add: #13 Cosmic King 5-1 9th

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (Super)

Oh super.. A turf sprint with 12 first or second time starters!

Most Likely: #7 Dorothy’s Spirit 9-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Sweet Cat 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #2 Run a Risk 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Constantinople 6-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Peace Preserver 15-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 6-8-9
7: 5-7
8: 6
9: 1-6-7
10: 3-5
11: 7-11

3x2x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (8-5-6-6-11-11) 5/6 Correct Paid $158.00 x 2 = $316.00

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6
9: 1-4-6-7
10: 3-5
11: 2-3-5-6-7-11

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

C/O’s the focus as SAR, DMR start closing weeks

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Veiled Prophet 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Alcomatch 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Scorper 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Hammock 10-1 WON ($17.00)

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Moreforyourmoney 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 King and Crusader 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Two Left Shoes 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Texas Josh 8-1 4th

3rd: Lady Tak, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Just 5 but supremely well-matched. If you single Moreforyourmoney above, you can go all here..

Most Likely: #4 Kid Kate 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #1 Katy Now 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Christine Daae 3-1 5th

4th: MSW, F&M-3, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 D’oro Princess 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Empress of Gold 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #6 Force of Nature 8-1 5th

5th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Spa City Lover 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #9 Inner Truth 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 In a Mellow Tone 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 By M K 5-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-6-7
3: 1-2-4-5
4: 2-4-5-6
5: 5-9-10

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Saints Alive 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Pegasus Tommy D. 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Count Catamount 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #5 Free Brave 4-1 5th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Style 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Officer Prado 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #9 SCR
Super Add: #4 Late SCR

8th: 7th P. G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Alaura Michele 9-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #1 Crazy Party 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Putthebabiesdown 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 New Wave 10-1 2nd

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Risky Rachel 4-1 WON ($7.50)
Next Best: #8 Yawkey Way 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Gato Nero 8-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Enniskillen 20-1 5th

10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Another unwelcome turf sprint stop on the P6 line. Moon Struck Nemi is another of the individual horses that has made this a very good meet for me, when winning at nearly 14-1. He’s also Ronny Werner’s lone success at the stand. Not sure if he can repeat while moving up, but he’s worth including. Angel Penna is winless with 6 starters at the Spa, a situation that Dominant Currency could rectify here. Tough, tough group to separate..

Most Likely: #1 Illusion of Speed 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Moon Struck Nemi 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Dominant Currency 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Babai Baby 9-2 5th

11th: MDN CLM-NY, 2yo, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #7 Deferlong 10-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Rico Capote 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Shane Roars 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 The Snickers Kid 12-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2-3-7
7: 5
8: 1-3
9: 5-8
10: 1-3-6-7
11: 3-7

3x1x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-7
9: 5-8
10: 1-2-3-6-7-8-9-11
11: 3-7-10

3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6,

Best Value: #8 Kvetch 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Ansede 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 English Puddin 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Anna You’re Up 5-1 8th

4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 U. C. Merced Two 8-1 WON ($25.40)
Next Best: #4 Purse Lava 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Don Elias M. 6-1 2nd-DH
Super Add: #14 Mossad 6-1 11th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Fulbridled’s Sis 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Subpoena the Dress 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Indiara 5-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Folk Dancer 6-1 7th

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 West Ruler 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #1 Miss Zooter 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Alaska Miss 9-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Catchy Tune 4-1 7th

7th: 19th Generous Portion-CA, 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Lookin for Jonesy 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Starlight Magic 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Heleonor Rugby 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #4 Willa B Awesome 12-1 5th

8th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Ello Guv 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Truco Latino 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Ava’s Paradise 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 American Warrior 8-1 10th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Mudville Nine 4-1 WON ($14.00)

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 8-9
4: 5
5: 4-8-9-10
6: 1-6
7: 3-5
8: 2-5-7

2x1x4x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-8-9-10
6: 1-4-6
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 2-5-7

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Travers Day afterglow overwhelms loss of Spa Sunday..

Monday, August 29th, 2011

Wonderful Travers Day was followed by unique hurricane experience Sunday that shuttered the Spa and much of the Eastern Seaboard. On the heels of a lucrative Alabama Day a week ago, was able to negotiate the stakes laden card successfully with particular exception of one mistake in the Ballston Spa that left a lot of money on the table. Building to what looked like a very big day via juicy P3’s in the card’s first half and an excellent $167 exacta with Miss Netta & Yellow Boat in the 5th, I watched helplessly as Daveron eclipsed Tapitsfly in the day’s first added-money event. A bad opinion of the Motion-Team Valor winner cost the $1,700 (.50) P4 and stopped every other P3 ticket as well.

Handsome $16 on Hot Summer in the Victory Ride got the ball rolling again, and the $363 late P4 came our way, but the foul tip on the middle quad stuck in my mind late into Saturday evening despite finishing up significantly on the afternoon. Caleb’s Posse winning the King’s Bishop over noble Uncle Mo was thrilling, and Stay Thirsty’s Travers effort was exceedingly gutsy given his attendance to the pace. Hope everyone did really well and enjoyed the day! Bit of a crazy few days ahead as I have to head to NYC after today’s ATR and then to Boston after Tuesday’s edition. Monster $341k Del Mar carryover for Wednesday to anticipate too as both summer havens enter their final week…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Primed for Success 2-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Castles Burning 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 At the Palace 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Princess Phoebe 5-1 WON ($28.40)

7th: Oc?N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Celebrity Sighting 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Need an Angel 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Soundwave 2-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Island Bound 8-1 7th

8th: 8th Saratoga Dew-NY, F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Spa City Princess 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Banker’s Buy 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Beautiful Risk 6-1 6th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Hopeoverexperience 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Holy Spice 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Patine 10-1 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #7 Simple Exchange 15-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 5-9-10
7: 1-2-4-8
8: 3-6
9: 5-7-8-12

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Travers Day arrives as storm ahead of the storm

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD,. Super)

Most Likely: #3 Global Power 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Rein King 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Shrewd One 3-1 2nd/3rd
Super Add: #12 Trulee Scrappin 8-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 8-5 2nd/8th
Next Best: #7 Covert Ops 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Fire On Ice 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #8 Casual Trick 7-2 5th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 SEVE 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Anonymous Donor 6-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Daddy Nose Best 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #5 State Flag 12-1 4th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Fine Flyer 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Good Prospect 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Hanson Heights 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Desert Wheat 6-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Juvy event has a strange feel to it with cast made up of mostly firsters from ‘better 2nd time’ barns. Pedigree hints not overly abundant either despite Trophy Wife being out of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home, etc. Will utilize 2nd out players drom Romans and Guillot and throw acouple of possibilities into the mix with them..

Most Likely: #10 Mi Vida 7-2: Pretty filly grabs lead; Dam full sis of Majestic Warrior.. 5th
Best Value: #7 Miss Netta 6-1: Sib to slew of West Coast stakes types; Solid drills.. WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Stellabymoonlight SCRATCHED
Super Add: #3 Yellow Boat 12-1: Benzel FTS can hit board, and Ramon sees fit to ride.. 2nd

SCRATCH ADD: #2 Try to Catch Her 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6-7-8
3: 9-10
4: 3-4-7
5: 2-3-7-8-10

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sextant 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Catchapenny K 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Sarah’s Pleasure 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Strategic Missile 10-1 WON ($24.00)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fizzano 7-2: Speed in event devoid of pace; Ramon sticks.. WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #1 Seattle Mission 9-2: Perenial hanger prefers Spa, stays close.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hooker 30-1: 2nd (52-1) this event Travers Day ’10.. 9th
Super Add: #2 Wishingonadream 30-1: Mediocrity fares best when inside.. 7th

8th: 23rd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not that many in here can’t win, but don’t you want the pair exiting the G1 Diana in Aviate and Mekong Melody? They both had some reasonable excuses for not winning, and simply own a class edge. Tapisfly, Miss Keller SCR’D and Strike the Bell are 10-1, 10-1 and 15-1 respectively, and are interchangeable as frustrating underperformers this annum, and all deserve spots on exotics plays as tote boosters..

Most Likely: #7 Aviate 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Tapitsfly 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mekong Melody 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Romacaca 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-7-8-10
6: 2-3-5-6-9
7: 1-6
8: 5-7-9

5x5x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

9th: 9th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Hot Summer 8-1: Back to one turn; Gets pace to chase.. WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #3 A Z Warrior 6-1: Sharp for comeback; Baffert deadly these settings 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Funny Sunny 6-1: Got turf dash tightener; Stalks up close.. 5th
Super Add: #9 Roman Treasure 5-1: Lone participant here from season’s G1 sprints.. 3rd

10th: 33rd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing imaginative to confer here..

Most Likely: #7 Sassy Image 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hilda’s Passion 2-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Tamarind Hall 6-1 3rd

11th: 27th King’s Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Sire-making race has a Beyer par of 108 and no set pattern or requirement of the winner as pure sprinters and classy cutback types have both been successful here. One thing is notable, and that is good previous tries over the surface, notably at age 2. Uncle Mo certainly can win this if close to his best, and Pletcher would not be showcasing him here if he were not suitably prepared..

Best Value: #8 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Flashpoint 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Uncle Mo 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Caleb’s Posse 9-2 WON ($13.80)

12th: 142nd Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Super)

As discussed all week, a fun and accomplished group has come together for the season’s main event, with only the sidelined Derby winner missing from the cast. What isn’t there to like about the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Jim Dandy winners in one race, challenged by a solid set of aspirants? Believe Mott may be sitting on second Saudi soph success in 2 weeks as A.P. Indy colt Raison d’Etat appears to be right horse in right place at right time at right price..

Best Value: #6 Raison d’Etat 10-1: Came to hand; Abdullah makes 1st Spa visit today.. 8th
Next Best: #10 Shackleford 9-2: Too tough to ignore despite question of last 100 yards.. 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Stay Thirsty 5-2: Deserving fave off Dandy, 3/2-1-0 mark this strip.. WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #7 Coil 3-1: Seeks unique 3 generation win this event (Point Given; Thunder Gulch).. 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-5-6
10: 3-6-7
11: 1-2-7-8
12: 6-7-9-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (6-3-2-9) Paid $363.25

13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #2 What’s the Record 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Windafull 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cincinnati Kid 3-1 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #4 Majesty’s Pilgrim 15-1 8th